Bananas - LGF current price hardens consolidation sooner than later - you may want to hang in to the fall.
LGF is doing well overseas with some of there "not so good" movies (their has been alot of them lately), but the market seems to care about the USA market only.
Good information. I still think it is a head fake for this coming up quarter results. "Eventually" LGF will get to 40, but you may need to wait a long time for that - some of us Longs have waited a long time so far and I'm losing money. If it does get to 40 in 3 years, it wouldn't pay for me - if you average it out for me as an example, I would be making about 1% on my LGF investment. I got my money tied up for all these years for nothing. I would rather cut my losses and find another investment.
Banana I dont blame anyone for being upset with this stock etc etc etc cause I sure am. That being said..... you only focus on domestic box office in your posts and the value of the company. I think this recent murder of LGF stock has taken the entire film studio and perhaps much of the film library out of the valuation. On that note...... I sure hope all those HG props being sold at auction were not intended for the theme parks and exhibits. haha
Meanwhile, Viacom CEO was already touting the DWA deal as a harbinger of good news for his own company.
"I think it shows the value," says Dauman, who was speaking at the end of the company's earnings call when an analyst asked about the breaking DWA deal news. "Here you have DreamWorks Animation, a studio that puts out two movies a year."
FBR analyst Crockett in his report compared Paramount favorably to DWA. "We, in our sum of the parts [valuation of Viacom], carry the Paramount studio at a value of just over $4 billion. But this studio has a $31 billion domestic box-office film library that is over six times the size of DWA's library and nearly four times the size of Lionsgate’s library.”
Crockett added that DWA releases two to three movies a year, while Lionsgate releases more than 15 a year and Paramount over 10. He concluded: “This all suggests that the DWA deal provides support for Lionsgate’s valuation and argues for a very positive bias to the valuation that will be placed on Paramount in the sale of a minority stake expected to wrap up in June.”
Drexel Hamilton analyst Tony Wible also wrote in a report that the DWA deal will help Viacom sell its Paramount stake at a higher valuation.
He explained: “This may allow Viacom to secure a larger premium valuation — especially as both studios are undergoing difficult transitions.”
I'm not sure about Apple. They are pumping it at the moment, now when that will stop is unknown. I guess it depends on ones willingness to sell - will one sell now or wait? Everyone likes to squeak out a little bit more before selling, but I'm not sure it is prudent here. The big players know how to play its investors.
Recent press releases for content deals with Steam and Fox Latin America will allow MM's to move stock price higher going into ER, and then they will dump, because unless their is huge revenue increase from SVOD their earnings will be terrible. Maybe Apple will want a content provider and they will scoop up LGF on the cheap before they prove successful or unsuccessful with their next tent pole releases.
I don't know why, which scares me. I don't see alot of good news from their movie business to make me excited, but someone is inflating the stock. To me, this could be a selling oppty rather than a buying oppty for us regular retail investors, any thoughts? I've seen this party before.
"The former chief digital officer of Epix was arrested on Tuesday on charges that he defrauded the premium television network out of more than $8 million..."
More interesting plot than some of their recent box office duds.
Watch for intense outside pressure on management to sell this company soon.
"Maybe you have some investing pointers for Warren Buffet also?"
"I'm in at $16.50 by lawtman • Mar 9, 2016 1:34 PM
Bought 1,000 shares yesterday..."
Investment in BCC up over 30% last seven weeks.
My portfolio is up $34K past month (thanks to BIg oil stocks coming back).
Not Warren B... but no complaints.
How's your LGF investment the past six months?
Maybe you have some investing pointers for Warren Buffet also? I am glad that your analysis has such confidence. You probably like I Frankenstein and Gods of Egypt - so you make a ton on one investment and throw away money trying to replicate that exact experience- sounds clever to me. You miss the point, but never mind- you seem to know everything, but thanks.
"The Hunger Games type frenzy was what took this company off track."
Wrong. "Hunger Games" put this company on the investor map. Growing library, TV production hits helped, but are not the primary mover. Without the next "Hunger Games" franchise, this stock goes nowhere---barring a positive takeover or merger.
"3:10 To Yuma and Lincoln Lawyer type movies was a slow building process and the library gets bigger..."
Stock doesn't move on these movies. It moves on lucrative billion-dollar franchises. Right now, LGF doesn't have one. You have a stock down over 50% in the past year with more downside if no big hit appears soon.
The Hunger Games type frenzy was what took this company off track. The Twilight and HG's made them into greedy mongers looking for more quick fixes and blockbusters- they where doing better before that overwhelming frenzy to get another easy blockbuster. 3:10 To Yuma and Lincoln Lawyer type movies- was a slow building process and the library gets bigger and they do produce some good TV program properties. If they spend over 100 M on another movie, it had better not be a quick attempt at getting another tween franchise to appease your demand to have another blockbuster. Maybe if they actually keep making good movies with artistic integrity, they may surprise and actually make a movie that people love and want to see and then they can have my permission to spend more on the budget. Who made you the expert regarding tent pole movies and whether a studio will succeed- maybe there is a market for movies that are not blockbuster but play well in certain markets or overseas- what is wrong with making a movie for 5 to 10 M and making 30 to 50 M on it? Where do people formulate opinions like this?????????
LGF will have to merge or be bought. Content companies must have strong, growing revenue streams from immersive film/cable content across all digital devices. Unlike DIS, LGF has no major sports programming and few current hits, both on cable and in theatrical releases. Unfortunately, LGF's top management believes they can build LGF into a media powerhouse. Without continued "Hunger Game" tent pole films, they will not succeed... and the stock will languish.
If they get back to what they used to do, they may be a great company to own- with the TV segments built up. What they used to do was make good movies for anywhere from 4M to 30 M and make money on them. I don't know if their blockbuster plan for the Iliad is going to work, unless they get Fastbender and great actors to go along with it- the fantastic director alone is not going to make it happen (their Hunger Games guy that is not all that great to begin with). Guessing that when it gets discounted, that the bids will start coming in for a combo with Starz or other mergers/ takeovers. The entire idea of 'content is king' has changed with the likes of Netflix and Amazon making programs that are pretty well liked and followed, kinda makes LGF's less golden goose-like. Overall, the sector is schitzo with VIA going to 39 and then popping to 46- missed loading up on that one and really knew it was an opportunity-least I held what I own. Now for DIS to get back to 120's+ They are killing it, the naysayers will be out saying they won't be able to keep the BO going like this forever, which is probably close to the truth.