John - read Mendelson's take on the last original franchise. Some interesting points but we have some lower tier franchises (Now You See Me, John Wick, Sicario) that wll make money going forward. Will have to wait out see how Gods of Egypt does but they do have an interesting slate of films in the pipeline.
Ultimately LGF's content and their mercenary approach will make us more money, but in the short term we are ripe for a pull back to at least the 35 support level before we begin our next leg higher (41-45).
ER will be interesting if we get a read on SVOD in China.
You know Joe a couple things I picked up on today. First off some critics have seen MJ2 but there is an embargo on reviews yet. The guy at forbes hints as if he liked it a good bit and it could pull in close to the 400 mil the first two did domestic. Do a search for the article. Next thing is that part of the reason TWX is down so much and had to lower 16 numbers is they need to increase spending on TV content. They also want to hold back some on who gets theirs since there is so much demand they want to use it for the stations they own. Here is just a line....
Bewkes said that with consumers shifting online, it was important to provide even more on-demand content.
"It's critical that we push on the accelerator because every day it becomes clearer that the trends we anticipated are happening, and in some ways they are happening even faster than we expected," he said on a call with analysts.
Starz :/ I feel your pain. When content costs go up you buy the supplier.
LGF mitigated risk with preselling international distibution rights. They will wind up making money off of Witch Hunter. When you talk about the stuff they are putting out you should also mention Sicario, John Wick, MJ2 and a pretty strong slate for the remainder of the year. With media consolidation taking place I don't know if I'd want to be out of this name.
After reviewing the movies this year- I am out until after earnings. Mordecai, American Ultra and Witch Hunter are blunders that have me a little #$%$. Maybe with the China deals they will match or beat earnings a bit, but the stuff they are putting out? Not sure whether this is the Summit or LGF guys, but this is like Killers over and over-pretty sure it broke even at least.
bananas - in most cast the market acts in a rational manner. If we get a major upside move like we've had over the last year we can expect at least a 10% retracement as money managers balance their books. If you're in this for the long term don't flinch at what Cramers says because while he is right for the short term the long trend is what we're interested in.
Don't you love the rest of the world when it comes to movies. Witch Hunter will make money worldwide. Now, Mockingjay 2 is the one I am most interested in, I hope it is real good.
Vin Diesel vehicle “The Last Witch Hunter,” bowing in 3,082 locations, leads the newcomers; it generated $3.7 million in Friday receipts, pegging it for a three-day haul between $9.5 and $10 million. The actioner also hit a few international markets, putting up a strong showing in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America.
Deadline is reporting a $80m budget and that it was all covered by selling the int'l markets (they probably kept UK and a few others) . It may have legs in other platforms. In any event, LG I think is doing OK with it considering if Witch hit, LG would have another franchise bonus.
Furious 7 had a budget of 190 million and it made money. Hopefullly, people are in the Halloween mood and will go see the Last Witch Hunter over the next few weeks. Think positive - even if the movie bombs there will still be consolidation and LGF is prime time for consolidation.