It's all part of investing in major content creators.
Every major studio produces and/or purchases films that miss.
However, LGF's model limits its downside exposure when their movie underperforms.
Per investor "confidence," this management team has dramatically changed LGF---from a small player a decade ago to a major Hollywood content creator and owner of film/TV content.
Always keep an eye on their upcoming film slate: one big new tentpole franchise can move this stock.
Our only hope is if SVOD and gaming delivers in a big way. If not, we're going down to 15. I don't see daylight here to the fall. Thank you bartender - may I have another!
The co funded film (CBS/Lionsgate) puts Michael Keaton in the lead role. The film is based on a best selling novel series consisting of 14 novels. It will be interesting to see who they cast to play Mitch Rapp.
"The SGL-3 rating reflects Moody's expectations that Lionsgate will have adequate liquidity over the next 12-18 months. As of 12/31/2015, the company had $88 million of cash on its balance sheet and no amounts outstanding under its $800 million senior secured revolving credit facility. We expect Lionsgate will be reliant on its revolver to fund film development and marketing spending and will generate lower free cash flow than historical levels over the next twelve months due to recent weakness in film slate performance".
You got to try real hard to put out movies as bad as LGF does. Criminal at 0% on Rotten Tomatoes right now. I mean you take the hottest star out there in Ryan Reynolds then toss in 3 well respected academy award winners in Kevin Costner, Gary Oldman, and Tommy Lee Jones....... take a great concept for a movie..... and the best you can do is a 0% on RT while also releasing it the same day as Jungle Book 100%on RT and Barber Shop. LGF could have put those guys in a circle eating grilled cheese and tomato soup and scored better than 0%.
Due to Australian tax credits and foreign pre-sales, LGF is responsible for only $10 million of production budget. While that doesn't count cost of marketing/promotional campaign, it could have been much worse for shareholders. That's why LGF is UP today even though Gods bombed at domestic box office. When you add up domestic/international, ancillary sales, etc., the studio may actually break even or make some money.
What moved it from 33 to 41 was John Malone, Discovery, and Liberty. The stock is controlled by institutions and they can take it whatever way they want to make money.
You guys can talk about GOE marketing budget till the dvd comes out but it doesnt matter. LGF doesnt give individual marketing numbers and even if they did the movie is still out and they dont discuss deals for competitive reasons. What we should be thinking of is Divergent coming out the week before Batman and how Star Wars hurt Hunger Games. If the movies does poorly its another hurt franchise. and our presently largest one that the director just suddenly left. Management talks a big game about timing a flicks release but they dont seem to do it as good as they brag.
I will only believe a "deal" when I see it. Some investors may get drawn into LGF because of this "pending deal." It may never happen, but it is up to people who pull the strings, and we will never know how they think. Relax for the ride.
Sure thing bud. I was just telling myself how good LGF chart looks. :/ Now you want to see something real real funny. Pull up a comparison 1 year chart of LGF and CMG Chipolte. In the meantime heads are rolling at CMG while management at LGF get big perks and stock and options. I was here for the battle with Icahn and things got ugly and personal. In order to save their jobs and their cash cow LGF management gave this company over to a hedge fund in the middle of the night and it basically became a private Rachesky company. Only he just had to get controlling shares at like $6. Now 6 months ago they could have sold this company for over $40 to a larger player or even just bought stars at a big premium with the market cap we lost. Now LGF isnt even appealing as a takeover because of inversion laws. If this was any other company management would be gone just from the movie product they put out. What a joke. I could go on for hours on the poor way this company has been run. Thought they were the biggest studs cause the hit on HG but turned out to be the biggest duds.
My guess is the same fool running the studio is running the stock buyback program and the pr department.
Deal talk has been going on with LGF for as long as I've owned it. It is highly manipulated due to the amount of institutional ownership. The Long/short MMs have made money on both sides of the trade taking it up and taking it down. The hope for retail longs is that upcoming content delivers. If not, a merger or takeover price may not get us back to previous highs.
If an offer is coming it should come within the next 8 months (before LGF can prove if they have another successful tent pole).The Allegiant drag can be countered with their backlog and POTENTIAL hits moving forward. My belief is that a buyout would still be in the 40 range based on their content library, TV and backlog. I was holding out for 50 (mistake) but would be very happy to get 40 now.
Looks like another bad quarter is on the way. After that we have Now You See Me 2 going up against Warcraft on the same weekend release - Ouch.
Good information. I still think it is a head fake for this coming up quarter results. "Eventually" LGF will get to 40, but you may need to wait a long time for that - some of us Longs have waited a long time so far and I'm losing money. If it does get to 40 in 3 years, it wouldn't pay for me - if you average it out for me as an example, I would be making about 1% on my LGF investment. I got my money tied up for all these years for nothing. I would rather cut my losses and find another investment.
On its way to $20-25 million by end of this weekend. Figure $30 million-plus domestic + ancillary revenues (at much higher margins), a few international markets (not pre-sold), and you have much ado about nothing. No $50 million write-down as some idiots here would tell you.
So using your estimated $30 million market spend on GoE:
Total cost to LGF $40 million
Using my conservative estimates:
Minus $20 million domestic box office to LGF
Minus any international markets not presold --- unknown amount, so zero for now
Minus $10 million all ancillary sales
A whopping $10 million writedown
And for that some idiots here act like it's the end of the world for LGF.