My favorite parts are: "Flamel shares are currently significantly undervalued, in my opinion." and
"EPS could double"......the article is well worth reading.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Another company's management has notified our Pub
that it wants to send selected groups of employees
to P-Town/The Eastmoor Pub for recreation and building
company interactions/alliances and back door activities.
They want to duplicate Flamel's stock market success and
believe in this Bartender's observation that he has never seen a
10-bagger he didn't like.
If I can confirm that they are signing up for our program you may
want to make a bet on them.
With FLML,this Bartender intends to Sell Calls when the stock
approaches its old highs above $40.
This is a more greedy playing out of the Carl Icahn Rule that he takes
money off the table whenever he has a 5-fold gain
I'm sorry, I don't understand these posts. How are you seeing this article and other SA Pro subscribers are not? My broker has access to Pro and there was no Flamel article as of this afternoon.
I am on Seeking Alpha but this is a "Pro" article so you must have a subscription to view it. I guess after the information has been digested by the subscribers it will eventually become available for the masses but for now I don't believe it is linkable.
seems to me my post was rudely removed....say what you want...hope is NOT a strategy....where's the beef???
So is the difference between Eclat 1 and Eclat 3 that Fresenius had applied for approval in 2011, earlier than the Eclat 1 filing? IF so, what assurances does Flamel have that this hasn't happened for Eclat 3 (whatever it is...)
Could, Would, Should..."IF"...all futuristic BS....let's FINALLY see some REAL #'s...tired of what's going to be someday...stock waaay overvalued at this point in time...especially when you read footnotes and look at royalty pymts that go to financiers BEFORE common gets anything!!
Sun rise, I believe you are correct. #3 is going to be a similar situation to Colcrys, and we would get the extended exclusivity of 5 years before an aNDA could be filed. There would absolutely be price increases along the way.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
If the new product is an improvement over the existing products, then the FDA could grant an extended exclusivity. Could be similar to Colcrys replacing the generic colchicine several years ago.
Also, when approved, I would guess there is a price increase that would result in much higher annual sales, and hopefully a much higher PPS.
Wonderful if true, but, after latest FDA action, how can anyone assume 5 year exclusivity? Or 3 years? Or 1 year?/ Until we know how/what the rules are, how can anyone play this game?
Or has the FDA under inflated the footballs?
A 5-year monopoly on a $500 MM drug with an 85% gross margin would be nice money.The resultant cash flow would easily finance the current,rich pipeline and a share repurchase program that could squeeze
the float/boost the PER and boost Deerfield's ownership position.
If Sodium Oxybate is FDA approved in 2017,we are looking at some serious earnings and free cah flow growth that should elevate the stock.
Mark your vacation plans--our FLML victory party will be when the stock breaks into new high territory above $40(at the Flamel Restaurant in The Marais in Paris).
Our recent price increase is actually a gold mine. Since Fresenius will not enter market for a few months, we will enjoy 100% market at about $40 million per month. and once they do enter with the discount we will still generate the same revenue that we were originally planning. So for now we should see$40 million (70% margin and 30% tax rate is approximately $20 mm net or a whopping $0.40-$0.50 incremental EPS per month or $6 annualized)
There is a 10 month period where an NDA can be filed, and more than one can be approved by the FDA. We obviously had no idea that Fresenius filed for neostigmine. The reason it just came out was they had violations against them and once those were cleared their NDA got approved. For Éclat #3, I strongly feel the FDA has winked winked at us and clearly told us that we will be the first to file for this drug. This one may qualify under a never before drug/chemical and get special status and monopoly for 5 years before an ANDA for generic can be filed. The FDA has a back log of about 2 years for aNDA before a generic would be approved for #3.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Marcher - will take them at least a year and $3 million bucks. Remember, Fresenius filed the NDA back in 2011. With two companies in the market already, not sure if the other producers are going to wade back in again. Will be interesting to see if this was a blessing in disguise.