I, too, share the belief that ALIM could be an acquisition target. ALIM could be a target of a pharma that either wants to streghten its position in the eye field or just enter the eye field for the first time (just like it happened for the acquisition of Eyetech many years ago). It could also be a target for some companies that want a "complete" approch to DME and at the same time compete against Ozurdex.
As for a possibile valuation, the market size as far as my DD appears to be as high as 575k people, growing at a rate of around 20% annually. Half of that number is believed not to be treated successfully with anti VEGF therapies. In a recent survey it appeared that Iluvien could be adopted by physicians in about 16% of cases of people with DME, representing around 1/3 of those people not treated successfully or around 95k people. However you could expect that there could be competition there with Ozurdex. That anyhow would give a potential market size of around 800M sales (which I believe it will need years to be reached, if ever), pricing Iluvien at an hypotetical 8,5K $. However, if you assume not to discount that number for actualization (assuming that the "discount" could be absorbed by the yearly growth), and assuming cautiously that Iluvien could reach half of those sales in the US (or 400M), pricing the company at a mere 1.25 to 1.5 sale multiple it would give a 500 to 600 valuation, to be discounted by 20% in order to take into account PSDV royalties, or a 400 to 480M possible valuation or a 9.3 to 11.15 potential T.P., on a basis of around 42.9 O/S. That would be without taking into account EU sales.
Obviously the above valuation represents a personal view and you are encouraged to do your personal DD prior to decide to buy or sell the stock.
At it again.. selling at 6 and change ..and MM manipulating to amplify the fall...shouldn't someone ask them in the conference all about all this insider selling?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You have no idea what you are talking about. The upside is actually greater because the need for a long acting steroid for diabetic retinopathy has now been established. If you understood anything about what was happening here you would know that the other therapies on the market treat only one inflammatory cytokine involved in DME....VEGF. Iluvien treats all of the others.
This is why they are not going to sell now. It should be a fairly rapid ramp. It's no blockbuster but the company is almost entirely institutionally owned....they'd punt it if it didn't have significant upside. Also, they are not going to be spending heavily because they can cover the US base of retina surgeons and centers with 30 people.
Maybe you should take your 10 shares and move on.
The piece of the pie they thought they were going to capture was larger in the past. The upside is much less now, better established products. I think they would jump at 400mil buyout now. The market doesn't have this at 5-6 bucks and 240mil if it were at the doorstep of a billion in sales. Maybe 100mil if they spend a ton of money (which they don't have) and wait a 3-4 years. Then they might get 600mil and 12 bucks a share after outstandings increase. I hold a few shares just as a desperation buyout play.
If they're going to merge into someone else that;s already in the space they need to do it before they build a field sales staff. I don't see them selling now. The big shareholders are patient and want to realize the full value. They took the company public over 4 years ago for $8.00...you really think they want to sell it now? They won't get enough for it.
Hi,I recently sold all my shares in idenix and after having been long for many years. 2 weeks after the company was bought by merck .. So I'm not the right person to give advices regarding whether and when :-)
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I don't see them selling until they have built a sales force and develop some traction with retina docs. There are plenty of national and international pharmaceutical companies who would like to get into the specialty retina space with a ready made US field sales force and a world wide license. How about Bausch and Lomb whose head of R&D is a co founder of Alimera and a huge stockholder.
patchen76...get a clue.
This insider ownership is huge and I don't think they can create much value on their own. It is just really hard to sell as a small guy. The big question to me is who would buy them. The really bigs probably don't see enough to move the needle. What mid sized biotech in the eye space?
Alimera Sciences Inc (ALIM) & Bio Blast Pharma Ltd (ORPN): 2 Pharmaceutical Stocks Hedge Funds are Increasing Their Stakes In
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