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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

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  • Reply to

    Time for a big buyback.

    by txthunderss 23 hours ago

    Sure they do.

    If you think they spend $81mm on capex this year (cash), you're smoking dope.

    If TC does spend $81mm for capex in 2015 using cash, the management of this company is smoking dope.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Time for a big buyback.

    by txthunderss 23 hours ago

    they dont have the money.

  • Reply to

    Time for a big buyback.

    by txthunderss 23 hours ago

    buy back some shares....at least 20M

  • Reply to

    Time for a big buyback.

    by txthunderss 23 hours ago

    i'd rather have them spend the 5m on 2017 bonds. Focus! Pay off the bond and pps sorts itself out.

  • Reply to

    Time for a big buyback.

    by txthunderss 23 hours ago

    I could see spending $4-5Mil to soak up some 10mil shares. Seems like recently there is a constant bid at $.43

  • Reply to

    FCX copper cuts

    by carlrich 11 hours ago

    I'm assuming this 1% supply growth factors in known disruptions year-to-date. With additional, typical disruptions over the next 4 mos plus the situation in Zambia, copper could well be in deficit for '15. Please post a message in caps when we hit a 2015 deficit.

    Current prediction for net supply growth for 2016 is 3.7% or 750kT? Is that correct? Is that your # or what you are guessing analysts will predict? Depending on Zambia situation et al later this year, this number could start falling before we get to 2016. No?

  • Re TCK, I wasn't sure what they did, but I did a Buy/Write yesterday and bought the shares for $5.59 and sold a $5 Sept option for 90 cents. Glad the stock went up, didn't want to own it. I wouldn't mind if the guy exercised the option asap. He can sell it for $2.

  • Reply to

    FCX copper cuts

    by carlrich 11 hours ago

    Carl could buy the whole company with his spending money and force FCX to buy it from him at a 50% premium as a tuck-in acquisition.

  • Reply to

    Uncle Carl

    by just_matt_84 4 hours ago

    Uncle Carl is also deep in the gas business with investments in Chesapeake and recently Cheniere Energy. I don't believe he thinks the world is ending for commodities demand.

  • Reply to

    FCX copper cuts

    by carlrich 11 hours ago
    stephen_t_crawford stephen_t_crawford 2 hours 59 minutes ago Flag

    If I had to guess I would expect Carl Icahn disclosing an 8+% stake in TC would also rally the shares. FCX was up on more than just CEO speak .

  • Reply to

    Copper Prices

    by brianchesnutt Aug 20, 2015 11:13 PM

    Market kicked them in the head a couple more times since their 7/28 disclosure that they would wait to announce cuts concurrent w. Q3 release.

    Market was impatient, and Jim Bob and Richard filled their diapers so they decided it was time to act, and not wait. Glad for that.

    However, they need to announce more cuts.

    Whether such are real cuts or just clarifications on growth projects (namely Cerro Verde), doesn't matter.

    But more is needed from them to dispel this "expected supply growth fever" that the copper market is gripped by.

    Various bank idiots (analysts) are STILL predicting 5-6% supply growth for 2015.

    This is what happens when bank commodity analysts use too much cocaine: They predict 5-6% copper mine production growth.

    These jokers have done this (overshot w. ludicrous expectations of supply growth estimates) every year since 2012, only to have to take them down as the year progresses.

    The real number for 2015 supply growth is down around 1%, 1.5% tops.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Speculators betting on lower LME copper prices, beware
    Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:08am EDT
    Reuters
    LONDON | By Pratima Desai

    Excerpts:

    "We need to see how things settle down post the knee-jerk reaction to the rate cuts", said Leon Westgate, analyst at Standard Bank. "Nevertheless, nearby copper spreads remain tight ... helping to deter fresh shorts."

    The spread between copper on the LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange, adjusted for China's value-added tax and shipping costs and known as the arb, at the moment favors the LME, where prices are lower, due to the recent devaluation of the yuan.

    "The import arb is wide open and warrant cancellations in Asia have risen," said Vivienne Lloyd, analyst at Macquarie.

    The discount for the three-month copper stands at more than $130 a tonne, compared with a premium earlier in August. At one point this week it rose above $150.

    Stocks of copper in LME-approved warehouses stand at around 369,000 tonnes, with about 14 percent of that earmarked for delivery and known as canceled warrants.

    Stronger demand from China is also expected to reinforce a tighter LME market.

    The highest canceled warrants, between 31 and 40 percent of stocks at around 43,000 tonnes, are in South Korea. In Malaysia the number is around 20 percent of around 101,000 tonnes.

    Traders expect most of that metal to show up in China.

    =============
    The Chinese are starting to pick off cheap copper. Expect imports into China to rise.
    Eventually, someone will yell "FIRE!!!!!!!" in that crowded theater filled with copper shorts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    FCX copper cuts

    by carlrich 11 hours ago

    If he was hungry for miners, he should have eaten TC as an appetizer!

  • Reply to

    FCX copper cuts

    by carlrich 11 hours ago

    and yet he's able to rally the stock on bad news, etc.

  • Chucky needs a good slapping......

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    FCX copper cuts

    by carlrich 11 hours ago

    Carl,

    Today's math on 2015 supply growth down to 198k MT, as I plugged in lowered YOY growth for Grasberg, based on their latest...

    This is about 1.06% supply growth from 2014. Far cry from the 5-6% some of the bank idiots are predicting.

    As it stands, if only using 75% of the avg. supply disruption factor of 1mm. mt (typically what analysts use, or claim they use in their annual supply forecasts), or 750k MT for 2016, total net growth for 2016 is only 3.72%.

    Have not heard anyone major talking about output increases from Q2 releases (which all surfaced about a month ago), and if anything, the difficulties the industry experiences have only worsened since various of the larger players in the industry reported Q2 production. Case in point, Zambia's conditions on the ground certainly haven't improved in the past month, and all the majors operating there will see lower H2 output vs. H1.

    So I don't forecast a 2015 tidal wave of copper. I can put my surfboard back into the rafters of the garage.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Looks like Carl bought up about 9% of FCX before today's announcements. I wonder if the production cuts were his idea or Jim Bob's.

  • Reply to

    Balance Sheets

    by switch_1995 Aug 26, 2015 4:42 PM

    China needs to start up a refinancing program available to SOE( and private companies) where a lot of this high cost debt of state-owned enterprises is replaced w. lower cost debt. This is a multi-year project for them, but the rates of interest that SOE and private enterprises pay on borrowing in the 2-5 yr range is crazy high. Create pension fund pools, issuing debt to non-gov't parties. Giant bond mutual funds. Aussies did it more than a decade ago.

    That would be a good place for the Chinese to start some decent blocking & tackling, and improve profits for industry. Would help support stock prices if so much wasn't going out the door for interest costs.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Time for a big buyback.

    by txthunderss 23 hours ago

    Ace in the hole, to make effort to prevent delisting.

    Couple days of big orders, in something illiquid as TC trades, will move it up. Tie that w. some good news released prior, who knows what the stock might do.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    FCX copper cuts

    by carlrich 11 hours ago

    I suspected they would be more aggressive w. NA operations, which may still come. This (thus far) was on the lighter side.

    They might better 'illuminate' what Cerro Verde expansion does next year so that might be the next "cut" announcement (for 2016).

    They've been pumping out a lot of capacity "noise" (see slide 10) on that op but no hard / fast expectation on what really happens in 2016 w. it.

    It will be in ramp-up next year, and it obviously won't operate at capacity in 2016. They need to start shinning light on that fact of science, as most of their disclosures on that expansion project keep reiterating "capacity, capacity, capacity".

    The grades are falling at Cerro Verde so if they say the mill can add 600mm lbs. copper output annually, given the grade decline, what's the real number?

    The existing Cerro Verde operation performance (for them) in 2015 has been poor, as they've run grades of 0.45% (H1-2015) vs. 0.58% (H2-2014), resulting in 158mm lbs. production in H1-2015 vs. 366mm lbs. in H1-2014. Existing mill operations are probably being disrupted by ongoing construction activities as the mill thru-put at CV is down H1 vs. H1, as well.

    At YE2014, avg. PP reserve grade for mill designated material at Cerro Verde was 0.37%. Right now, their running mid-40's. In 2014, the avg. grade was 0.54%. From 2010-2013, grades at CV mill were 0.60% to 0.66%.

    So they've been high-grading CV for a number of years, and that is causing overall reserve grades to fall.

    In the future, the CV mill expansion will be two steps forward, but the revision to the avg. mill designated reserve grade will be one step backward.

    Thus, FCX propaganda about the new CV mill expansion adding 600mm lbs. copper annually, that's more noise I suspect, than reality. Once it's full ramped up in 2017, the added boost will quickly prove to be less, since they'll be burning up the sulfide deposit at CV at 3x the rate previously.

    Grade decline will, thus, accelerate faster

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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