Agree to a point, but they do need to be able to make it through these lean times. PAL couldn't.
If they can survive until 2019, I think they will be sitting pretty.
KISS! Keep It Simple Stupid. Clancy has laid it out perfectly. TC is a pure play on Cu and Au. When copper prices recover, and they will, even if it takes 2 or 3 years, the cash flow and deleveraging will be so fast that you'll see TC back at $4, $5 or even $10. The compounded return from a 50 cent cost basis is too big to even bother calculating. Some of you are agonizing over a nickle or dime in trying to call the bottom. That's a fool's errand. If you plan on staying for the full ride, it doesn't make a difference whether you pay 40 cents or 60 cents. What everyone needs is patience. Stop looking at the daily price. Once a month is more than enough.
Finally, quit complaining about management. None of you know squat about what they're doing. When copper recovers they'll all look like geniuses.
Since I responded to your question, I guess I have one... Really.. What is your interest in TC? I can't imagine anyone would spend this much time on something without any type of stake.
Are you long, short, stocks, bonds? It would help me to understand the basis of your passion.
thanks for your courteous reply. I see what the problem is. The method you are using is not reflective of the real market for the bonds. TD Americtrade probably is just posting one of several trading platforms current bids and offers which after COB will not have the real bids and offers that were present during trading. You can see each and every trade that takes place (because by regulation all bond trades that involved dealers have to be reported to FINRA Do a google search for BONDS HOME the first search result will show the finra morningstar location. Go to it. Clink the SEARCH link. On the resulting page, in the box titled issuer name, type in THOMPSON CREEK METALS, (three seperate words). Click on SHOW RESULTS. you will see the various maturities on the next page . The 2017 notes have will show a symbol TC3932214 as a hyperlink. Click on that hyperlink, the next page is the page for the 2017 notes. Click on TRADE HISTORY and the next page will show EACH and EVERY REPORTED trade as far back as you want to go. Try it, you will be able to see the real market for the bonds of TC ( or any other company you might want to search for.
You should probably stick to speaking the issues regarding copper and affecting TC. This kind of post is pointless other than to expose some extreme flaws in your character.
I use as my source TD Ameritrade, I select the lowest offers in each issue as indicated approximately 30 minutes after COB on Fridays. That's it.
The Blue Jay lost the first two games in a seven game series.
It been a long week and now it time to relax. Maybe get a couple drink. A couple drink sound like a good idea, Arnold? Just remember, you must stop after two. Or maybe three. Definitely after five.
Even more interesting is your term salient. When used in the physical world of being to fast, it flies apart and eats itself into oblivion. Self prophetic perhaps?
you are to be complimented for showing a level of acumen that is rare on this board. I wonder how many people understand the significance of what you posted which contains some very salient points to consider. The board needs more people like you posting.
no offense, but every week you post data that does not correspond with the actual data on the bonds.
I have checked it on my Bloomberg terminal, as well as on FINRA, For example , on the 2017 notes, the significant trading was in the 91-93 range this week, with the closing trade today aprox 92.
Wondering what you use as your source. Suggest you consider you use FINRA , which is the official source since it sounds like you don't have access to a Bloomberg terminal.
There were mixed results in the prices of the three TC bond issues this past week. This trend that has been in effect for the past three weeks.
The 9.75% coupon bond due 12/01/17 increased $0.80 to $95.12. This bond has largely held a value of $94 or above for the last several months. The 7.375% coupon bond due 06/01/18 decreased $1.83 to $51.6. The 12.5% coupon bond due 05/01/2019 decreased $2.01 to $55.58. These latter two bond issues have suffered significant price decreases over the same period of time in the 15% to 20% range.
If anything there is a disincentive. The call provisions make it prohibitive to refi before December of 2015, and I would argue prior to December 2017. Furthermore if they deliver a certain amount of gold to Royal (450K ounces or profit to them of $280M) they no longer have the $375M Secured note restriction (the big covenant that most people miss as being key here). Thus theoritically if they could get an unsecured revolver in the short-term, and start actually generating a profit (so they have distributable net income to buy unsecured within covenants), they would be better off playing it fast in regards to liquidity and waiting as long as possible to refi the secured. This would enable them to deliver enough under the streaming agreement to refi all the notes as secured paper (after 450K ounces delivered, which if they get close to nameplate they should make just make it prior to 12/1/17).
Irregardless of the implications of above, If I were Perron I would line up some sort of revolver (hopefully around $150M) with terms that would allow me to hold the debt for an extended period (1 year). Then I would use the proceeds (and likely the same bank to accumulate prior to announcement) to repurchase the unsecured starting Dec 2015. That way if the secured holders cry foul on a breach of convenants on the unsecured buybacks and demand repayment I have the funds from the revolver to repay them (and I wait till December 1 for the reduced call provision), and can work on structuring a new secured (under $375M) or best case can soak up a few hundred million of unsecured at a significant discount and have a much more attrative balance sheet...
Is this one a question for me?
If so, I plan on being around for the metals price turnaround that will come over the next several years.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
If they ship five full loads, (and depending on the mix of who gets what...) and all of these are recognized in Q3, the numbers will be decent. They need to work the balance sheet, and squeeze if for cash. The plan I want to hear (even if they only hint about doing it) is a slowdown in capital spending, pushing large chunks of planned capex (for '15) down the road. I don't suspect we'll hear much on debt, as they are probably nibbling on debt, and won't want to trigger a big reversal in the note prices yet.
Sentiment: Strong Buy