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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

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  • Rhiannon Hoyle
    The Wall Street Journal
    Updated July 30, 2015 2:59 p.m. ET

    SYDNEY—The biggest casualty of the malaise affecting global steel markets isn’t iron ore, or even coal. Instead, an often-overlooked metal that is produced in countries including the U.S. and traded in London has experienced the steepest price falls: molybdenum. The commodity, used to increase the hardness of steel and help protect it from corrosion, is piling up at ports and storage facilities around the world because of too much supply and listless demand from steelmakers.

    The price for three-month molybdenum futures on the London Metal Exchange has plummeted 35% this year, to US$13,250 a metric ton. That is outpacing falls in iron ore and coking coal, which are down 22% and 26%, respectively and has made molybdenum the worst-performing metal this year. A year ago, molybdenum was trading for about US$30,000 a ton. Producers are now facing up to a challenge similar to one that has buffeted miners of other steelmaking ingredients: a deepening glut. Countries including the U.S., Chile and China have increased production of the raw material in recent years as miners sought to satisfy previously rocketing commodity demand in Asia.

    Iron ore plummeted to a decade-low early in July, the victim of rising supplies from the world’s biggest miners, including BHP Billiton Ltd. BHP -0.44 % and Rio Tinto RIO -0.75 % PLC. Coking coal has been in a prolonged slump, trading at its lowest level since before the global financial crisis as supplies outpace demand. But the molybdenum sector, valued at roughly US$7 billion last year, is beset by a distinct dilemma. The raw material is often churned out as a byproduct of copper mining, which means supplies are influenced by how much copper is being produced, and the volume of molybdenum in that copper ore.

    “It is similar to iron ore in the fact that the problem is with too much supply,” said David Merriman, London-based analyst at Roskill Information Servic

  • Reply to

    Price

    by whitebronco94 1 hour 29 minutes ago

    Report should be good. They've already filed in the blanks with production/sales data release, comment about bond buy and cash levels afterward. If cost structure was awful, they would have burned cash, and they didn't. Clue that MM costs are low, which is good.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CLF?

    by micwar 2 hours 59 minutes ago

    Things are about as ugly as things can get for the industry right now.

    Company has nice export business, growing, overall volumes stable. Lots of room for savage cost cutting, unions or not. They have access to the credit markets. Prices for thermal and met coal low. 80% of Chinese met coal producers upside down on costs, so their AU unit should grow going forward. They have assets they can sell as well. Lastly, Barry Hussein won't be in office forever, and his illegal assault on the industry using the EPA will come to an end w. the next president, whomever that may be. The clawback of coal has only begun regardless what the AGW worshipers believe. BTU survives. Many others in the space won't. So it's stupid cheap. Stock was $15 bucks year ago, and $70 four years ago. Fund managers won't touch it because their afraid of being called "racist deniers" and all manner of idiocy from the Left. True. Coal prices are volatile and supply is being cleaved off the market left and right. NG is cheap but won't be forever since the nuts are stalking fracking too. Didn't follow this one until two weeks ago. Couldn't believe my eyes. Figure a couple thousand shares, forget about it for ten years, see what happens. People tend to like electricity and I don't see the generating mix changing much during that time since solar and wind are a pipedream that won't add squat to the generating mix of the world, and it takes a decade to get a nuke plant permitted (outside the US - forget building one here). Worth the risk but it's a decade play.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    'The Donald'

    by micwar Jul 29, 2015 6:37 PM

    How about you educated liberals treat the illegals and welfare rats to a free limo ride when your exodus begins?

  • Reply to

    CLF?

    by micwar 2 hours 59 minutes ago

    What about CHK?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Now that things have stabilized (for the time being) things have begun to return to normal. But boy were you right-strange indeed.

  • Price move up three days in a row and no afternoon sell off which has been the norm. All await the CC next week Friday will be the tell all if we have bottomed.

  • Reply to

    CLF?

    by micwar 2 hours 59 minutes ago

    I like BTU...provided they can outlast the war on coal or at least get a ceasefire. Can't last forever when shedding a billion a quarter though

  • Reply to

    CLF?

    by micwar 2 hours 59 minutes ago

    Tell me more about your take on BTU, if you don't mind.

  • Smaller mine burning up copper resource at neat mine in Eritrea called Bisha, as planned.

    Output of copper to fall 75% by 2017, per mine plan before leveling out.
    In 2014, the Bisha mine produced approx. 90k MT.

    Small copper player, but shrinking copper output........ is shrinking copper output. Down is down.

    This mine isn't the only smaller copper operator out there facing similar circumstances and a handful of these tends to add up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CLF?

    by micwar 2 hours 59 minutes ago

    Tough market their in, one that's getting crashed by much bigger players in Australia who seem intent on continuing to pump out massive volumes from Port Hedland WA. Between Vale, BHP, and Rio Tinto all locking horns for market share, there might be better places to play for now, because these elephants will trample everyone slow in their path, and CLF doesn't look to nimble. Iron ore market is a tough environment until the Chinese lower-grade iron ore producers finally die off. Which is the object of the game the big boys are playing, and it's a game that will go on for a while, still. Then you have to contend with flat Chinese steel production as their industry struggles to stay afloat. Might pay to wait.

    I'm looking at putting some 'crazy money' into BTU. $1.25....yikes. They moved out some debt maturities and bought about eight years time. Feel pretty confident their product will still be used in increasing volumes in the world in the future, because without it, the lights don't workie, workie, and Mr. Fusion home energy generating systems haven't been invented yet. If there is an industry that everyone is writing off, it's the black rock that burns. Libs won't be able to kill it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • "perception seems to drive reality and not the other way around"?

    Remember that market perception is everyone in it and most, in my opinion, are uninformed to various degrees. So perception is not reality it is the culmination of individuals knowledge usually based on brief exposure to information on a possible investment. That is why momentum stocks are a good way to invest ... people with no clue jumping in.

    "Market Perception" drives current value right or wrong ... it is when reality is different then market perception that huge opportunity can be identified.

  • Straight, I understand that your reply was probably rhetorical, but I admit we are basically narcissistic individuals that can articulate our views well {chuckle}, The difference between us though is not only our maturity level of conversational etiquette, but you have one that displays a heavily invested financially bias and myself who is playing the market volatility and in advance relaying pretty accurate dissemination of where the market is going on copper and TC prices.

    I I understand that there are many here who are burdened with TC shares and an uncertain future and I feel for them, but the question is, going forward based on our "record" with TC, who would you rather invest with? GL2U

  • Perhaps you shouldn't buy, after all.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Looks tempting. Any thoughts?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • No. First dipped my toes in w. small purchase on May 21, 2012. Been adding ever since, and esp. this year at sub-$1 prices. Used to post a lot on TCK, sometimes on TGB, Claude in the past when I owned them more heavily under Ultraific2, but stupidly lost that ID having Yahoo unsuccessfully try to fix some supposed virus from my email. You can go look at my posts under Ultraific2 , but really need to stop making your bull krap up. Didn't start posting about TC until I decided to dip my toes in May 2012. TC's cheap, and the copper market isn't as messed up as you or sentiment suggests. You're smart enough to know that, so why don't you just admit TC is a big old buy. Far to many are gun shy on this one. Made big bucks on TCK in past in it's darkest hour. The set up for TC is the same, if one is patient. Time will tell. Enjoy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    TC outlook

    by dtimepalm Jan 19, 2012 11:46 AM

    Hi Dtime......

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • GREAT, seems they will make money before you do ... don't worry though, I have it on good advice that "redemption is just around the corner"

  • “Only dipped my toes into TC after it crashed in May 2012“…Your posts during that time period suggest otherwise.

    You do not even get that shorts are part of the "market" and are a result of "poor market sentiment", which is EXACTLY what I am talking about ... yeah and I’m stupid. {LoL}

    You go ahead and wait for a return to normalized $3 and above copper prices. Maybe by 2020, if TC is still around, you will clear up your unrealized losses, but then add another year or two to recoup the loss of intrinsic value of around 20% … not to mention the loss of compounding returns on all that money ... what is it, 10% returns for seven years you would have double your money? You would have been better burying a 10 year CD.

    In the seven months I have been on this board ... I was right when I worried about copper prices with perception of a glut forming in my post last December (which most denied), I was right with 37% profit by trading long as the TC share price dropped from $2 to $1(as you added to your underwater position), I was right when I declared TC stock broken at $1.05 and stayed out as it dropped to $0.50, I was right when I stated that current Copper prices would drop below $2.41 before they corrected.

    What is and has been your continued pervasive pumping rhetoric as the price has fallen from $14 ... "redemption is just around the corner”? {chuckles} You need to stick to the nuts and bolts of mining, which you are good at, and stop embarrassing yourself with those that understand market opportunity assessment and how to make money.

    Thanks for the laughs, but I have hoe’s (cash) in my portfolio and I need to put them to work.

  • Dragon,

    What's going on? Hope things are well.

    This year might be the year the mining industry gets some discipline regarding copper growth projects. A lot of future spending still happening (or planned prior to 2020) will be done just to maintain output post 2020.

    As far as sentiment, once more focus on real fundamentals of the industry begins to happen, the managed money non-comm. shorts will rethink their record short positions on copper.

    Of the 10 largest copper producers on Earth, seven have reported, and of the seven that reported, five are clocking YOY output drops.

    BHP, RIO, AA,ANTO, FQ, are all down.
    Only SCCO and FCX are showing growth, but both will probably struggle to hit previously disclosed guidance for 2015 (meaning their growth is weaker than expected).

    Of the three majors still to report (Codelco, KGHM, GLEN):
    Glencore will be soft (Zambia & Congo), KGHM's Sierra Gorda won't be adding much & flat/down in Poland, and Codelco is expected to be down this year, and more so, next. They have a lot of headwinds coming soon, from finance to ore supply.

    These 10 majors represent 50% of total copper supply.

    Chinese producers (in China) are down 10% for H1 regarding concentrate, which is the lion share of the domestic industries form of copper output.

    Zambia + Congo will struggle with supplying electric power to their domestic producers. These two produce 10% of copper combined.

    Chile is struggling with sky-high electric costs, lack of water for mills, emboldened community activism all egged on by a left-of-center gov't in the country. Not a backdrop for robust growth from this country.

    TC is a deleverage play, and what happens in the next 2 months in the copper market is of little consequence. What happens in the next two years is more important. And from the looks of it, there is NO big wall of copper coming to swamp the market unless we start scraping it off the sea floor, starting tomorrow.

    China will still consume lots of copper.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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