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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

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  • Reply to

    Found the bottom?

    by bestguesser 12 hours ago

    Not a bad strategy. The gaap number will be the first number out. That's going to be a very very very very scary number. Will likely result in another one of the down 30c or something then ending the day down 5-10c.

    Then hopefully Perron, Saxton, and BOD step with buys couple days later pushing it up to pps $2.

    Hope. Such a pathetic investing strategy.

  • Reply to

    Found the bottom?

    by bestguesser 12 hours ago

    I think it'll be around that ballpark. As for the $30m, remember folks.... A big part of that was done in January, not December so it all won't be reflected on the financials.

    Obviously I will be pleasantly surprised if cash is higher. I think top range would be mid $280s. But I always love upside surprises!!! :-)

  • Reply to

    Found the bottom?

    by bestguesser 12 hours ago

    With $30M already used to pay down debt, I suspect that cash and equivalents for TC's 4Q will be $275M. This is the same figure that Private suggested, I believe.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Found the bottom?

    by bestguesser 12 hours ago

    The eps number is going to panic a lot of people who follow that metric without looking at anything else.
    Might be a good strategy to put in a low bid or two and catch some falling fruit.
    I'm not sure how happy I'll be if they are cash neutral after speding for the bonds.
    Would like to see an extra $10 to $20 mill.

  • Actually I wonder if endako could be "shut down" and equipment so on secondary market so to speak. Worth more that way than as a mine. Lol.

    I'm teasing but sad part is that it's probably closer to a wash than we're afraid to admit.

  • The way to make Kevin pay is to buy back his shares at say $1.50 today. Take away his ability to enjoy the upside later!

    That's of course assuming the Perron's sell rating on TC is wrong.

  • Reply to

    Found the bottom?

    by bestguesser 12 hours ago

    They're going to take some hits that won't affect cash but will affect earnings. That's what I'm worried about. The cash used in the bond repurchase will be offset by the reduction in debt so it's a push on the balance sheet.

  • Reply to

    Found the bottom?

    by bestguesser 12 hours ago

    I called cu and TC bottom the other day but I was wrong before. Q4 will be cash neutral due to the bond repurchased. The annual numbers are unlikely to have any suprise. It is very much depend on cu price at this point.

  • Reply to

    dtime tc update to buy rating

    by dtimepalm Jan 27, 2015 1:58 PM

    AM I Right or amI right. Long live the betta system I invented

  • Reply to

    Dateline 1/29/15

    by do_lo_when Jan 29, 2015 10:26 AM

    Anonymous source advise that Weeb Hubell was seen outside premises of Chelsey's wedding with a pair of binoculars (Do believe they only come in pair). He was watching as Chelsey walk down the isle. He had a tear running down cheek.

    Thing like that very interesting to Do. It called "circumstantial evidence".

  • I really want to believe we have. It's held at 1.20 in spite of the market, copper, gold and moly dropping.
    The real test will be how it does with the 4th quarter and annual numbers. I am trepidatious. That mean scared, not hopeful.

  • Do looking for the price of TC to rise. Based on the amount of dollar being printed, prices all good and service will rise. Mayonaise, pickle, copper, steel, forklift truck, and meal in restaurant. It may take time. In meantime, Do will share thought on other stuff.

    Jeffrey Epstein. You guy remember him? He the super rich financier who own an island in the Atlantic Ocean.
    On that island he keep a harem of sex-slave. All underage girl. He took some very rich customer to visit the girl and sample the good...for $15,000 each visit. Jeffrey was a high-price yahoopimp.

    Two noted customer......Slick Willy and Prince Andrew. (It amazing how the rich can put a muffler on the press.) Thank God for the tabloid!! (remember John Edwards?)

    Here are the implications: What if Jeffrey Epstein was smart enough to make videos of Slick Willy in action
    ....with a fourteen-year old brown girl? (maybe Epstein remember the blue dress). Maybe Prince Andrew told Bubba about the joy of toe-sucking. Who know for sure?

    Suppose Hillary's political adversaries (that mean enemy) release this video two week before the presidential election? Too late for the Cherokee lady to mount a campaign.

    These kind of thing Do dream of.

  • Agreed; at the end of the day it's the engineer who will ultimately determine, design and recommend corrections to snafus in the system, regardless of how they got there in the first place. P

  • That's probably certainly a factor. If Metso said they thought the 40' SAG would address the hardness issue (right or wrong), I could see Kevin and crew wanting to take that leap of faith and cut out secondary crushing from the design since the projects costs were spiraling out of control on labor, time, materials.

    But I do think Hatch sold TC management a bill of goods on the performance characteristics of the Endako mill. It was supposed to reduce mill cash costs on a per unit basis, and it was less effective on that front than the old mill. But at the end of the day, dumbo TC mgmt. signed the contract so the buck does stop there. Mgmt should have known better, and found a way out of the deal after the GFC occurred.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Just Crazy

    by tmguven Jan 30, 2015 12:01 PM

    And to your point about the Fed and the dollar, yes, they don't want gold to run because it would indeed undermine confidence in the US dollar. Were that to happen, the interest rate on Treasury debt securities would balloon and given the $18T in outstanding US public debt, would crater the US budget. The majority of the budget would go to servicing the US debt. So the Fed has to use the banks to facilitate in pushing gold down.

    What is funny right now, if you look at corresponding yields on a country by country basis, US debt rates are generally higher than corresponding Eurozone rates. Even from the doggy periphery members of Europe. US 10 yrs. yield is 5x higher than corresponding 10yr. generic German Bund yield. How can this be if Almighty King Dollar is the fiat economy of such a strong US economy? That yield is a function of perceived creditworthiness, and the markets know the US is on the 'Highway to He77' regarding it's debt addition, and inability to do anything serious about it.

    After 2018, US budget deficits are predicted by CBO to take flight on increasing outlays for SS and Medicare as the demographic worm turns. And yet DXY marches upward? The suspension of disbelief continues, peddled by the financial press.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Just Crazy

    by tmguven Jan 30, 2015 12:01 PM

    Agree 100%.

    Every time I read a Bloopberg article and dig into it, I come away feeling it was written by some Goldman Sach's analyst or floor trader.

    Bloomberg tipped their hand (yet again) when they didn't report anything on the copper futures market shenanigans two weeks back, [that funds operating out of SHFE and LME assaulted copper with pile-on speculative short trades, ballooning open short interest on the March '15 contract], and that Financial Times did [with analyst commentary], revealed that outfits like Bloomberg have an agenda. That same day Financial Times reports on the short interest zooming, Bloomberg spins up another "China slowing, worries, worries, worries" piece.

    They aren't even journalist anymore.
    Just a propaganda microphone for someone trying to take one's wallet.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Dragon, you are correct....Kevin is the culprit for all that is wrong with TC. He should be made to pay for his incompetence. Could he be made to pay for his mismanagement via Directors & Officers liability action?

  • Guys, especially Dragon and Reg, bringing up the idea that engineering missed the boat in the grindability/hardness of the ore and subsequent sizing of the SAG. You may be absolutely correct, but...., in my experience with large complex CapEx projects such as MM, engineering puts together the systems required to reach the desired endpoints and management does their best to whittle down the cost, often at great expense to optimization and efficiencies. There is a classic struggle between engineering and production guys in the mining industry and engineering Almost Always has to bail out management when they've failed the heed recommendations and suggestions. Just sayin'. P

  • Reply to

    Just Crazy

    by tmguven Jan 30, 2015 12:01 PM

    Carl, that was an interesting article and shows the extent at which they--the media--go to try to create a narrative. I am not sure if they were purposely trying to mislead or not, but they are certainly trying to convey that demand was weak, when it was quite the opposite. The new reality is that gold is directly imported into China and does not have to pass through Hong Kong anymore. The Chinese opened direct importation this past year. So gold imported through Hong Kong naturally has fallen. (In addition, Shanghai Gold Exchange moved over 2000 mt last year. China accounts for production of roughly around 400 mt of the world's 3100 mt of production per year. That leads to 1600 mt that had to come from other sources.)

    See: China allows gold imports via Beijing, sources say, amid reserves buying talk
    See also: Shrouding China's gold trade, more imports go under radar

    There have been stories going around that If the powers to be, Central Banks, let gold get out of hand and it starts to run, it could undermine confidence and everything that they are trying to do. Stories like the one you found are part of this misdirection campaign.

  • Reply to

    Mining is a rough and tumble busness

    by aequitas45 Jan 30, 2015 10:34 AM

    Verbal vandalism by analysts without reason........tends to make people upset.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

TC
1.28+0.090(+7.56%)Jan 30 4:02 PMEST

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