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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

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  • TC is not concerned about the share price, at the moment. That should be obvious.

    They are concerned about rising note prices. Strongly suspect they are buying back notes, at present, and would prefer these stayed cheap (or cheaper) for the next several quarters (Q1-Q3).

    Think of it as Halloween, come February.

    The last thing TC wants to do at this point is say anything positive whatsoever that might make their note prices turn around and start going up.

    The negative will be accentuated, answers to questions about poor guidance, liquidity, debt plans will be empty, vague, not disclosed, big plans for capex spending will be enthusiastically embraced and the likelihood of board approval stressed. Anything that connotes brewing insolvency will be stressed. Woe is us.

    If the stock analysts run screaming from the call, scurrying to write their next 'doom and gloom' missives, the goal will be achieved. Fear is a tool, and TC will use it, because at times, it helps. Esp. when buying back one's debt at sharp discounts to par.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    In Case You Missed It - TGB

    by skippy_0823 Feb 6, 2016 9:59 AM

    Lot of insiders buying over there, wonder how much it has to do with RRC?

  • Reply to

    In Case You Missed It

    by skippy_0823 Feb 6, 2016 9:54 AM

    So even after they were failing to make payments, their company was valued at about 2X TCPTF's current value, interesting
    This seems like an obvious case to me for an argument against the intelligence of the market. 95% drop in 30 days, can't imagine it was because of some huge surprise. Wonder what their bonds were trading at in Q4 2015.
    Could be an interesting story to watch, see how Chapter 11 works out for them and how the current credit environment reacts.

  • tm thanks for the reply my problem now is timing I have a trip to Peru coming soon and of course Tax time looms. Because of these issues I'm conserving Cash right now. Later this year I would like to purchase more shares to lower my cost base. As the lady said "Timing is Everything".

  • Foggie, I to not think it is that camouflaged, that is exactly what he is saying. Personally, I think TC is way over-sold. Also, however, we have some negative mine fields in the general market and I am not sure how that shapes TC direction in the short term. This is above and beyond what Ultra is saying.

    My information channels in the last week have seen a lot of chatter of War as Turkey and Saudi line up against Russia and Iran. The implications of this are far reaching, and I am noting a higher probability of a major war by the end of 2016. For TC, certainly something that propels gold, however, uncertain on the net effect on copper.

    Now for the PC crowd--stop reading as this is my framework.
    My take: The US, if they wanted Assad out made a major mistake by opening a void into which Russia and Iran stepped in. I have no idea what BHO is thinking, nor do I think he knows. Turkey, of course is NATO and we are suppose to come to their defense, however, they are being run by Erdogan who increasingly looks as if he has lost touch with reality. Effectively, Turkey is in Civil War right now. At the same time, we have, thanks to Kerry, set up Iran--arch enemy of Saudi--as a force to be reckoned with and a real problem for the loonies who run Turkey. Further, we see in emails released by State Dept. last week, “It's time for the United States to start thinking of Iraq as a business opportunity," she [Secretary of State Hillary Clinton] said in a 2011 speech. HRC--more cunning and intelligent--ran circles around BHO and I am starting to wonder if the private email system was to enable privacy from the WH. Back to the 4 players lining up for war. Which candidate do they wait for to calm the situation? Hillary? Bernie? Trump? Cruz? Not much hope there for a solution. So war looks more probable. (And gold, much much higher.)

  • Russ Hallbauer, CEO and President of Tadesko (TGB) purchased 652K shares of stock in TGB recently.

  • Horsehead Holding Corp. (ZINC) filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 on February 2, 2016.

  • Reply to

    Copper Up

    by carlrich Feb 3, 2016 11:56 AM

    Just to beat the drum one more time, gold up again to $1173.

    Since mid Dec, gold is up $100. That's about $10-12m more revenue (over 1 yr) after cleaning and shipping charges. Combine that with lower opex at MM due to fuel, steel and CDN and TC could possibly be cash flow neutral in '16 in spite of their downbeat guidance. Of course, that greatly depends on how much capex they'll be spending. Plus some positive things could happen in the 2nd half of the year e.g better cu pricing and maybe moly starts to wake up.

    I know first things first - buy back as much debt as possible.

  • Rise and shine.

    Fidelity, E*trade, TD is what I have.

    Good luck.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why You Can't Make an Honest Buck

    by blakeeric619 Feb 4, 2016 9:32 AM

    Shoot the professors. Save on the pension costs.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bond Activity

    by ekretiree01 Feb 5, 2016 10:51 AM

    Rise and shine.

    I think the top dollar limit on the remaining default threshold is about $27.5mm as far as using Collateral on the unsecureds.
    Yes, it will take time. Probably two solid quarters. They have to be active, and aggressive, and slam as much buying into a quarterly window as possible for starters. At the same time, it will be important to perpetuate the doom and gloom that has surrounded this company. That's easy enough to manage. Spin up some dog guidance, and stick to it. Analysts are already foaming at the mouth over capex.

    On the secured debt, no indenture limits exist. So what they can afford to buy, they will buy. Honestly, they need to wait on this issue. The bottom is falling out on the price. They should 'message appropriately' and see where it takes them. If they tie up enough cash in wc, it will spook the holders of these notes, and the prices will continue downward. That is helpful.

    I would do a 144a nonetheless, dirty pool included. After they monetize value from the unencumbered assets of the Company. By then, the notes will be trading higher, but not at par. Still worth the effort, as the note holders are the enemy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why You Can't Make an Honest Buck

    by blakeeric619 Feb 4, 2016 9:32 AM

    Most of academia is a complete racket bordering on a scam. One of these days the country will be broke enough we will finally deal with that mess once and for all.

  • I have to find a new broker for this anyway since my current one only deals with investment grade bonds. Who should I be using?

  • ultra it looks like you are saying that there will be more "buying opportunities" this year if one wants to purchase cheap shares?

  • Reply to

    Bond Activity

    by ekretiree01 Feb 5, 2016 10:51 AM

    I believe you have said the most they would be allowed to spend on the unsecured is some $26mil. When we see these 1mil (face value) trades on Finra, we need to recognize that TC needs some 100-150 of these 1mil trades. That's a lot and it takes time.

    Plus, they can also buy back senior notes. There's no limit here other than what they can afford to spend outside of capital expenses and any possible operating losses. Correct?

    As TC reduces some of the unsecured debt, I hope the odds of being able to do a refi are increasing, especially with improved metal prices. Wouldn't a refi give TC some more $ to buy additional unsecured i.e your 144 plan. I guess there's no need to do a 144 plan as long as unsecured prices stay low and they haven't spent all their allowed cash on bond buybacks.

  • Not to be a naysayer, well I'll just go ahead and say I'm naysaying, but it did break the downtrend at the beginning of 2014 and again at the beginning of 2015, only to start a new downtrend right?

  • Reply to

    Conference Call

    by phogphan Feb 5, 2016 1:14 PM

    Well there shouldn't be a lot of room for any, but it's tough to feel safe that they didn't overpay for more debt or put in big hedges for Cu at $2 or who knows what. Let's just say I'll be nervous until I see where everything stands as of the end of the year. I think everyone expects to see their cash position drop, some more significantly than others. As I've said on other posts, haven't seen much of anything for real estimates from any analysts on the current state of TCPTF's financials. Also expect some form of update on mill throughput so far this year.

  • Reply to

    Bond Activity

    by ekretiree01 Feb 5, 2016 10:51 AM

    Senior secured notes are at 70 and falling. This is good.

    TC should hire a nationally recognized bankruptcy attorney, and disclose it in a press release.

    Describe it as "exploring options to preserve value for all stakeholders". Omit mention of shareholders. Some vague, empty hollow talk like that.

    Then have one of the junior associates from this law firm come to corp HQ every Tuesday for lunch for the next six months, and draw pictures or paint scenic reliefs all afternoon in some 'fung shui team building exercise' with mgmt. This doesn't get disclosed, of course as pending legal situations never are.

    Unleash the worst fears of the market.

    Perhaps this follows the disclosure of an impairment of TC assets w. YE reporting.

    Those senior secured notes would be trading below 50 in no time......as Moelis gobbles bunches of them up on the sly.

    None of this would be illegal, but it sure would feel criminal. :)

    They didn't hire Moelis because they look good in suits....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • You might want to wait until after they release numbers, I suspect. I don't believe they'll be pumping out a report and YE CC brimming with good vibes. That would be unproductive at the moment. The negative will be accentuated, and reaffirmed, and probably will for at least the next two calls, for that makes analysts (and SA writers) shriek, and scares the he77 out of bond fund managers who spend 5 minutes a day glossing over their portfolio holdings. Scared bond fund managers means note prices go down (or stay reasonably down, at least). And that makes the process of starting to delivering the company this year an easier task, one would suspect.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • papa, that 14 cents, I assume for the 2018's, may be the quote, but just try to buy at that price. It will be more like 16 and 17. It ain't gonna happen. The million dollar low trades are from dealer to dealer. You might try ultra's broker who seems to be able to get better prices than the three different ones I used.

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