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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

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  • Reply to

    FCX copper cuts

    by carlrich 20 hours ago

    and yet he's able to rally the stock on bad news, etc.

  • Chucky needs a good slapping......

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    FCX copper cuts

    by carlrich 20 hours ago

    Carl,

    Today's math on 2015 supply growth down to 198k MT, as I plugged in lowered YOY growth for Grasberg, based on their latest...

    This is about 1.06% supply growth from 2014. Far cry from the 5-6% some of the bank idiots are predicting.

    As it stands, if only using 75% of the avg. supply disruption factor of 1mm. mt (typically what analysts use, or claim they use in their annual supply forecasts), or 750k MT for 2016, total net growth for 2016 is only 3.72%.

    Have not heard anyone major talking about output increases from Q2 releases (which all surfaced about a month ago), and if anything, the difficulties the industry experiences have only worsened since various of the larger players in the industry reported Q2 production. Case in point, Zambia's conditions on the ground certainly haven't improved in the past month, and all the majors operating there will see lower H2 output vs. H1.

    So I don't forecast a 2015 tidal wave of copper. I can put my surfboard back into the rafters of the garage.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Looks like Carl bought up about 9% of FCX before today's announcements. I wonder if the production cuts were his idea or Jim Bob's.

  • Reply to

    Balance Sheets

    by switch_1995 Aug 26, 2015 4:42 PM

    China needs to start up a refinancing program available to SOE( and private companies) where a lot of this high cost debt of state-owned enterprises is replaced w. lower cost debt. This is a multi-year project for them, but the rates of interest that SOE and private enterprises pay on borrowing in the 2-5 yr range is crazy high. Create pension fund pools, issuing debt to non-gov't parties. Giant bond mutual funds. Aussies did it more than a decade ago.

    That would be a good place for the Chinese to start some decent blocking & tackling, and improve profits for industry. Would help support stock prices if so much wasn't going out the door for interest costs.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Time for a big buyback.

    by txthunderss Aug 26, 2015 8:47 PM

    Ace in the hole, to make effort to prevent delisting.

    Couple days of big orders, in something illiquid as TC trades, will move it up. Tie that w. some good news released prior, who knows what the stock might do.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    FCX copper cuts

    by carlrich 20 hours ago

    I suspected they would be more aggressive w. NA operations, which may still come. This (thus far) was on the lighter side.

    They might better 'illuminate' what Cerro Verde expansion does next year so that might be the next "cut" announcement (for 2016).

    They've been pumping out a lot of capacity "noise" (see slide 10) on that op but no hard / fast expectation on what really happens in 2016 w. it.

    It will be in ramp-up next year, and it obviously won't operate at capacity in 2016. They need to start shinning light on that fact of science, as most of their disclosures on that expansion project keep reiterating "capacity, capacity, capacity".

    The grades are falling at Cerro Verde so if they say the mill can add 600mm lbs. copper output annually, given the grade decline, what's the real number?

    The existing Cerro Verde operation performance (for them) in 2015 has been poor, as they've run grades of 0.45% (H1-2015) vs. 0.58% (H2-2014), resulting in 158mm lbs. production in H1-2015 vs. 366mm lbs. in H1-2014. Existing mill operations are probably being disrupted by ongoing construction activities as the mill thru-put at CV is down H1 vs. H1, as well.

    At YE2014, avg. PP reserve grade for mill designated material at Cerro Verde was 0.37%. Right now, their running mid-40's. In 2014, the avg. grade was 0.54%. From 2010-2013, grades at CV mill were 0.60% to 0.66%.

    So they've been high-grading CV for a number of years, and that is causing overall reserve grades to fall.

    In the future, the CV mill expansion will be two steps forward, but the revision to the avg. mill designated reserve grade will be one step backward.

    Thus, FCX propaganda about the new CV mill expansion adding 600mm lbs. copper annually, that's more noise I suspect, than reality. Once it's full ramped up in 2017, the added boost will quickly prove to be less, since they'll be burning up the sulfide deposit at CV at 3x the rate previously.

    Grade decline will, thus, accelerate faster

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    FCX copper cuts

    by carlrich 20 hours ago

    Well, I wouldn't call purchasing that oil company at inflated price "handling himself well". It's criminal activity from my point of view, making one of his buddy rich in the process.

  • Reply to

    Time for a big buyback.

    by txthunderss Aug 26, 2015 8:47 PM

    Only 2 million shares are short. The shorts dried up after Tmeds expired.

  • Reply to

    FCX copper cuts

    by carlrich 20 hours ago

    Carl,

    FCX has estimated 2016 and 2017 copper output from Grasberg at 1.5 billion and 1.3 billion lbs. since at least March [YE 2014 data releases].

    Go look at their latest presentation from the Q2 CC. Slide 33.

    These are consistent w. earlier #'s released in conjunction w. release of their 2014 10-K and YE 2014 data on their Indo ops. I have this built into my supply analysis by yr.

    As for what's going on, Grasberg open pit (OP) is in the terminal phase of it's life. They stop mining from it in 2017, and go 100% u/g at that point.

    So they are at the bottom, where the higher grades sit.

    That being said..

    Can they live up to 1.5bb and 1.3bb output in 2016 and 2017?

    Maybe.

    They have to hit on all cylinders. No screws ups. No slides.

    Mill rates have to increase, substantially.
    They have not operated at that level of capacity since 2010.

    The only years in the past decade where they did that level of copper output were as follows:
    2010 - 1.33 billion lbs. copper (avg. grade 0.85% / 230k tpd on mill / 149.8k tpd from Grasberg OP)
    2009 - 1.641 billion lbs. copper (avg. grade 0.98% / 238k tpd on mill / 166.3k tpd from Grasberg OP)
    2005 - 1.689 billion lbs. copper (avg. grade 1.13% / 216.3k tpd on mill / 100% from Grasberg OP)

    All other years (2008, 2007, 2006) ranged from 1.1bb to 1.3bb on grades of 0.83% to 0.85%).

    Output from 2011-2014 were all well under 1.bb lbs. output annually.

    The overall Grasberg mill sources about 50-65% of ore from Grasberg OP, and the rest from lower grade Deep Ore Zone (u/g).

    The pit is deeper now than it was in 2009-2010. Slows hauling from pit.

    Grasberg PP reserve grades remaining stand at 0.96% w. 174mm tonnes left, and DOZ PP reserve grades 0.54% remaining stand at 146mm tonnes left.

    DOZ outlives Grasberg OP (which goes down in 2017).

    Blended at 2/3's Grasberg, 1/3 DOZ, I don't think they have the avg. grade since pulling from OP at rates of 150k tpd will be tough work.

    I think they are short.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    FCX copper cuts

    by carlrich 20 hours ago

    Stephen- bottom line, FCX ceo handled himself well, had a message, etc and the stock rallied on krapppy news/performance/etc. Perron comes across as a progressively worse baffoon with each CC.

  • Reply to

    Time for a big buyback.

    by txthunderss Aug 26, 2015 8:47 PM

    Carl, I would pray that they have their plan baked enough for the CC3 which is in that same general time frame by then. Another blah blah debt blah blah CC and this clown (Perron) should be fired with prejudice on the spot.

  • Reply to

    Time for a big buyback.

    by txthunderss Aug 26, 2015 8:47 PM

    I would do it for the sole reason to #$%$ the shorts and improve my own insider package. Just a few million though. The volume has been real sucky lately and days to cover is getting a little high. A good short shakeout would be hilarious.

  • Reply to

    FCX copper cuts

    by carlrich 20 hours ago

    I wouldn't give him too much credit there. FCX has been a flaming mess recently and I would argue that TC has probably had there "stuff" much more together than FCX recently.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    FCX copper cuts

    by carlrich 20 hours ago

    I'm getting tired of low prices. Copper prices are certainly not reflective of supply/demand fundamentals right now. It's time for much higher prices. Need the copper shorts to run for the exits all at once now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    FCX copper cuts

    by carlrich 20 hours ago

    In the last CC, they lowered sales at Grasberg for 2015 to an expectation of 860mm lbs.

    In their YE 2014 sales guidance for 2015, they had penciled in 960mm lbs. for Grasberg, up from 664mm lbs. of sales in 2014. In 2014, Grasberg produced 651mm lbs.

    So now the 2015 sales guidance is 835mm lbs. I doubt they produce much beyond this, since they looked to be coming up short on output after two quarters of 2015 reported, presuming of course, that sales = production.

    In this recent release, they mention the following:

    "PT-FI’s concentrate shipments are proceeding normally following receipt of its export license from Indonesian government authorities on July 29, 2015. During the third quarter, milling operations have been impacted by a reduction in process water available under current El Nino conditions, resulting in a reduction in PT-FI’s annual copper sales volumes for 2015 of approximately 25 million pounds from the July 23, 2015 estimate of 860 million pounds."

    Grasberg is in mountainous jungle where is rains almost everyday. So blaming El Nino is creative, I suppose.

    Needless, I had penciled in my supply analysis, a bump in 2015 YOY output for Grasberg 140k MT. Looks like I get to take that down by 62k MT.

    FCX didn't go BIG, but every little bit helps.
    Now a few of the other majors need to step back into the confession booth....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    FCX copper cuts

    by carlrich 20 hours ago

    Ultra, did FCX reduce about as much as you had expected? They are shutting down Miami, cutting production at Tyrone by half and 'adjusting' rates at 7 other N Amer mines.

    But, they are revising Grasberg up for next 2 yrs due to higher ore grades.

  • Reply to

    low cost producer

    by bestguesser Aug 26, 2015 7:38 PM

    OK, OK, I was just joking. Metal prices will have to be much higher in order for TC to be CF positive. Didn't Perron say $2.50 in copper and $1K in gold for TC to be CF positive?

  • Yes, this is a good idea. Perron should take a 50% pay cut, or should be paid 100% in stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • As for Skippy, I do not see TCK as being very attractive as of now. If I wanted to speculate, I would select HBM. Of the miners, GG is still my favorite.

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