The macro I'm referring to is the projected supply and demand for copper for the next few years and the forecasted price of copper. The best forecasts are the option prices and that shows copper staying around or above $3. Fundamentally I look at the projected cash flow which is right on schedule to allow refinancing the debt under more favorable terms.
All the rest is white noise.
Do I think the price will rise reach $3 by the end of the year? I would say that it's 50/50. I hope not. I sold $3 calls many months ago for 45 cents and lowered my cost basis to $2.01. I'm looking for a triple to quadruple over the next 2 to 4 years. For a guy that doesn't buy green bananas anymore that's a long time.
Now for more important things like golf.
Muffin full of it? no way? he is a bitter loser who has nothing better to do then try and talk people out of what they believe in...but what makes it worse is that he doesn't have any evidence to back any of the arguments that he uses to try and talk people down. Just sad to be honest. I don't know enough about Moly or Mining in general to comment on here, but believe that many people on here do have the knowledge..obviously he is not one of them.
here is a cut and paste of one of ultra's posts yesterday.
"Ok, I see what your all wound up about.
I'm looking beyond that."
Surely, Gatr, you a veteran of 60 years in the markets cannot agree with such a basic error in investing judgement, for Pete's sake we are talking about a mining company of basic materials like copper, the macro is central, not something to look beyond.
I agree that looking at the macro is key. However, I think the shareprice action is correlated with the poor macro fundamental outlook in Europe, Russia, China etc
Regarding Ultra, it seems his one deficiency is not giving due weight to the macro. He said so in a post yesterday, and I believe it is why he has been wrong on the shareprice action.
You speak hopefully for improvement for the macro in the longer term, and I hope you are right. But the shorter term says pretty loud and clear that the macro is poor.
TC will likely be under pressure for quite some time.
You are not in the camp that predicts TC will see $3 soon, are you?
Gatr: Yep, I agree with you entirely. There is a lot of hidden value in TC. At these levels, the price of TC is very reasonable. That is why I bought another 1K this morning.
I posted another comment in continuation. Not going to type that out, basically muffins is full of it that anyone predicted any specific price and not wiling to make any sort of concrete statements of his own.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
excellent! when i first bought TC i believe it can turn around as metal price will bounce up. but it needs more patience. TIME can tell us if TC can provide good rewards in the long term.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Shanghai Gold Exchange reported deliveries rose to over 50 tonnes in the week to 19th September. This is the highest weekly delivery since February. At these prices there is a lot of gold being delivered. Hong Kong imports look to be much smaller, but since China now imports directly to Beijing, Hong Kong numbers are getting less reliable of China's imports.
ultra's got the fundamentals right. I've spreadsheeted and cross checked his numbers several times and don't see anything that causes me concern. If some of you do, list them so we can comment. Be specific.
This is basically a commodity play on copper and to a lesser extent gold and possibly moly.
Copper prices are projected by both future options and analysts to be fairly stable for the next couple of years.
The quarterly cash flow and operational data have been as projected and maybe a little better.
By all fundamental measurements, the stock is very cheap.
The "scary" debt now looks manageable with the projected cash flow and refinancing prospects
What else do you guys want in a stock beyond instant gratification?
The entire mining industry is out of favor and all the ships, good and bad rise and fall with the tide.
One whiff of metal shortages or inflation will make the entire group rise as fast as it fell.
TC is a potential 5 bagger. All that's needed is patience.
Been doing this for almost 60 years and been down this same road many times.
Patience laddies, patience.
Ultra, I usually don't even see muffin's posts, but since I wasn't logged in I read some of this thread.
Just to be a gentleman, since the post he's likely referring to (and misquoting) is so outdated it can't be looked up, I posted maybe as late as June (and followed up on calling myself out for it later and it may have been much earlier than June mind you) that if I were a bookie putting odds on the highest price Moly would hit (I think it had run to about $13 at this point) that I would consider making $17.50 the over/under line for the year. Granted, nobody said anything contrary or that they would definitely take the under, 'cause guys like muffins know they'll look dumb when they make their bold predictions. So I didn't predict that Moly would be 17-18 right now, nor at any particular point, just that if I were a bookie and taking bets on the higher price Moly would hit in 2014 that $17.50 seemed a good number to use.
So now we're at least 3 months, but probably several more than that down the road. Much less uncertainty over a 3 month period of time than the probably 7-8 month period I initially commented on. Despite that fact I still don't see a definitive comment from muffins that Moly will not reach $17.50 at any point this year. Obviously any good bookie would change the line. Not sure what the highest trading point was already this year, so obviously you wouldn't make it any lower than the $15 or whatever the exact number was it had hit on the exchange you were using for the wager, but nobody would give you action on the $17.5 line at this point in the year. I never said I'd take the over, I just said it was a good line at the time, might have only been $17, couldn't tell you.
So basically while muffin's comment isn't completely unfounded it's still incredibly flawed. Had he actually set a range/line himself of where he thought Moly might max out this year, or had he actually commented he'd definitely have taken the under at any point before...
According to the TC Events Calendar the DB conference was today and yes TC presented.
Check the TC web site.
Anybody know if person is speaking at the DB conf tomorrow?????
So, knowing what you're investing in matters does it? So since you "know" all about TC, it will all be okay? Just like you "know" all about Moly prices?
How's that working out for you so far? You never would have predicted in a million years TC would be sitting at $2.26 today. Someone else already called you out on the forums about your wild predictions.
How many shares of TC do you own? I heard you own over 500,000 shares, so you are down almost a quarter million dollars. I heard you had to borrow against your mortgage to buy more shares for TC, and if TC drops too low, the bank will foreclose on your house and you will be an old man with no retirement money.
Isn't that right? I heard you are so leveraged in TC that you can't sleep at night.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Doubling down and buying January calls is not the best idea. There is no evidence or likelihood that TC is going to be any higher in January. There is a strong feeling that Gold may have a Christmas crash and that would be enough to push TC down further below $2.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
First, Muffin is right. Moly is down short term.
Second, Muffin demonstrates no knowledge of supply and demand, moly trends, seasonal factors, or the players (both suppliers and users) in the moly market. He's shooting from the hips, apparently. I'd ask for an explaination of his reasoning, but I know I would just get invective.
If you look at the 5 year chart for moly, you will see lots of movement. In 2009-2010, moly went from $8 to $18 down to $12 then back to $18 again. To take a 3 month snapshot of prices is premature, and fails to take in to account projected moly shortages in the next few years.
Freeport suspended mining activities at its flagship Grasberg mine after a workplace accident killed four workers and injured five others.
Sudiro, the chairman of Freeport’s Al-Indonesia Workers Union (SPSI) told the news media Sunday that the union would be sending a team to investigate the scene of the accident, particularly because another fatal accident had occurred at Grasberg earlier this month.
Grasberg is the largest gold mine and third-largest copper mine in the world, mining 885 million pounds of copper and 1.1 million ounces of gold last year.
Sentiment: Strong Buy