Ultra, here are some recent comments I've read about China demand...
One trader said his shipments to China will be half vs 2014.
Still a lot of blame being placed on the Qinglao port scandal for soft China demand
Purchases haven't accelerated this year after the Lunar New Year
It's possible that China demand has peaked
China will use 2% more cu in '15 vs '14.
Concentrate is surging
With all these conflicting views, one can see why Andy Home wrote his article.
Yes, I've seen China's import #s thru March, except I can't find the scrap # for Mar).
For China to do 10mil T in '15 (or about 45% of anticipated ww output), they need to average 833K T a month. They did that in Jan and probably will again in Mar. Feb was way off due to Lunar New Year.
I wonder what Antofagasta sees now for 2016. Projects are getting pushed into 2016 at the same time the older mines become less productive (sort of like 2015 de ja vu).
Do remember Arnold post on other MB post that he go to South Pacific and say that he not posting any time. Skippy know why Arnold go to South Pacific. Possible he see witch doctor so help him deal with thumb down syndrome. Witch doctor tell Arnold he can't help Arnold with his other conditions especially what to do with thumb when not giving thumb down.
"the senior unsecured notes are not subordinated obligations. PERIOD"
Dumb, is when you don't know any better.
Stupid, is when you know better, but you do it anyway.
Squiggy: Please have a little compassion for Arnold. Remember Arnold was housebound due the inclement winter and he was unable to see a doctor to treat him for his thumb down syndrome.
But will the doctor be able to tell what to do with his thumb when not giving the thumb down? Now that is the 64 million dollar question.
I was looking at that this afternoon. Fun charts for the kids and family.........
'Golden Sacks' is looking at the wrong type of copper when they say its going over the cliff.......
Did you see the March 2015 China copper import news on SMM...?
A none too shabby pickup, and record concentrate imports (depriving the rest of the market that volume).
Antafagosta is the next miner to see no surplus in 2015, based on today's latest out of CESCO:
"Speaking in an interview ahead of the annual Cesco industry week in Santiago, Chile, Diego Hernandez said that as recently as November, the company had expected a copper supply-demand surplus of around 400,000 tonnes. “This year, as in the past three years, the forecast surplus will not happen. Why? Because there is some delay in the start-up of some projects, some mines will produce less due to grade issues and so on,” he said. Mines have also closed or reduced output due to mill failures, high costs, strikes, droughts, fires and floods. “By February, the forecast 400,000-tonne surplus for the year dropped to 200,000 tonnes and then to 100,000 tonnes, and that is where we currently see the supply-demand situation for 2015,” Hernandez added. The company, meanwhile, had expected a slightly smaller surplus of around 300,000 tonnes for 2016"
Also, nobody wants to bad-mouth state-owned Codelco in Chile, it appears.....wonder why?
No, I didn't expect that you would get it. I just don't get the fact that you are still here. Of course, it is my opinion that TC will be a profitable investment in the next few years. If you are so negative about TC why hang around whining.
"Cycles Zac, cycles."
puden, you couldn't have said it better in so few words.
This stock is not for someone who doesn't understand commodity cycles or leverage. The trick is to buy, or average down, during the low cycle, be very patient, and then ride the up cycle, being sure to get out a little too early before the peak. The cash flow is used to reduce debt and financing costs so as to increase cash, etc.
In control system terminology, it's a positive feedback system.
If you think this will be dead money for a long time, you can also lower your cost basis by selling out of the money call options.
Disclosures: I am a (self declared) Sergeant in Ultra's army of pumpers. He pays me $1/post. I only use 8 aliases.
"I have spoken with a number of institutional holders of the common stock who are against that poorly conceived strategy" - - you don't say? - - who? - - phone numbers? - - perhaps its voices in your head - - take your meds - - you won't hear voices anymore - - you are a weirdo - -
I have taken every opportunity like today to increase my position. I bought 5k shares 20 minutes before close at 1.3199, to make my total TC holdings 45k shares. The volumes recently are very low, which tells me no one is eager to jump off the ship, and it's easy to take the price down when so few shares are moving. I don't post often, but I follow the board and I do my own dilligence. I believe TC is a solid, long term investrment. I'll keep accumulating to my target share count, which will take another few months of timed purchases, and then I plan to hold for another three to five years. By then I think we'll know what the outcome of all the global financial engineering experiments is, and I'm putting my money on precious metal value. Right or wrong, there's my strategy. Follow along and we'll see what happens!
As for fustration; some of the constant moronic posts and name calling here are tiresome, but it is a public forum, and on the internet you get what you pay for. The sophomoric attempts at broken Asian accents are denigrating to Asians, and if they accurately reflect the IQ of the posters, I feel bad for them, but again, it's a public forum.
Good luck to us all!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thanks for reply. I just keep what I have and wait, but not add any more because I just hate to put all my eggs into one basket. looks like this is dead money for a while.
I don't know if you're simply venting or baiting, but I'll respond with my experience. Like you (and many other longs) I'm underwater here. I did average down, and my breakeven is now near $2.
There are a lot of things that happened that I didn't foresee - the collapse of moly prices and the decline of copper being two of them, though there are others that are not worth discussing at length here. If the trends that were in place when I bought TC had been sustained, I think things would be very different.
The question is what does the future hold? If I sold all my TC, where else would I put it? The fact is that I still believe TCs turnaround story, though that story is playing out in a much longer time frame than I had originally anticipated.
TC still has about $266M in cash. They are adding approximately $30M every quarter. In 2015, most of that accumulated cash (about $90M) will go to engineering and a supplemental crusher. After 2015, they'll have the increased throughput from the crusher to compensate for the depletion of their moly inventory, and should be able to generate enough cash to make some meaningful reductions in their debt load.
Once that happens, things should look a lot different in a few years. The life of the mine is 20 years, so that's a long time for cash to be piling up.
One to two years may not be a long time for some folks, and too long for others. In the short term (months to a year), there are lot of stocks that may outperform TC. However, I think the long term picture still looks bright.
Hope this helps...
- Regards, PM
With all of those aliases, Arnold's thumb must really be hurting him. He should see a doctor who will tell what to do with his thumb when not giving the thumb down.