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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

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  • The Asian Metal arrows are pointing up for S. Korea, India, and Europe! Looks like the Western markets are basing and getting ready to move upwards.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Other stocks I'm looking at

    by papageorgio304 Jul 18, 2014 8:42 PM

    for the uranium play I like URG

  • Reply to

    Other stocks I'm looking at

    by papageorgio304 Jul 18, 2014 8:42 PM

    For real.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Other stocks I'm looking at

    by papageorgio304 Jul 18, 2014 8:42 PM

    I like some of the Athabasca Basin super junior speculative uranium stocks. U prices recover from reactor restarts and these things (the ones that can make it through) go to the moon.

    I also like Ithaca Energy on dips. They have their own Mount Milligan they are dealing with. When it finally comes online, there will be much cash flow and rejoicing amongst the shareholders.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Other stocks I'm looking at

    by papageorgio304 Jul 18, 2014 8:42 PM

    You are braver than I to be in those Russian names. I wouldn't put it past Putin to just take them over on a whim.

  • Thought we could use an off topic thread to share our thoughts on other stocks. Lots of smart people follow this TC board.

    All go first. This market is #$%$ and it's harder and harder to find value. I liked a lot of the oil majors but they've recently climbed along with the rest of the market. Some other names in the energy space I'm looking at: PBF (small refiner, Klarman has jumped into), OGZPY (Gazprom), LUKOY (Lukoil, Russian oil producer).

    Also looking at NTDOY (Nintendo) and SNE (Sony) as turnaround plays trading near or below book.

    Feel free to share you own picks or comment on mine (these are all prospective positions).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • That's why they have the quota system, of which only a few of the major domestic producers (in China) are allowed to export the material. Remains to be seen what comes of this regarding WTO appeal, and what China is forced to do with export quota and duty, and their new resource tax.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I don't know how many tonnes of stainless typically go into a building an "average: nuclear reactor. But the last figures I saw (from about 2010) foretasted 440,000 lbs of were moly needed for a "average" size nuclear reactor. Of course, that forecast was also most likely predicated on using more conventional austenitic grades such as the 254 SMO® stainless steel. The 254 is comprised of 20-percent chromium, 18-percent nickel, 6.2-percent molybdenum and 0.20-percent nitrogen.
    The best choice for reactors now is the newer super-austenitic stainless steel, 654 SMO®. Metals comprising this brand include 25-percent chromium, 22-percent nickel and 7.5-percent molybdenum.
    According to a well known study at nuclear power plants in Finland and Sweden, along the Baltic Sea, "The only alloy fully resistant to all test conditions was 654 SMO®.
    And if the Chinese start deploying molten Thorium salt reactors, even that grade won't be sufficient.
    Add in the retrofitting of existing nuclear plants, desalination plants, desulfurization scrubbers, China's burgeoning catalyst industry for petro cracking AND it's nascent oil and gas (shale) industry, plus it's normal (for China) infrastructure needs and is it any wonder China does NOT want to export any of it's molybdenum?
    Indeed western moly prices could easily be double what that are running now in 6 years, or less.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A different company

    by superlithe Jul 17, 2014 7:11 AM

    Stupid-Genius:

    All stocks have risks. Thanks for the epiphany.

    New moly supply is coming to market, indeed, but it won't alleviate the supply picture much. It really won't. The moly market is operating at a slight deficit currently, which only grows in the years ahead, Sierra Gorda or no Sierra Gorda. (And that one is a flash-in-the-pan, if you know anything about their operation.)

    Prices are starting to rise in the Chinese domestic market too. That means something important down the road.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Can say how many tonnes of moly-alloyed steel goes into a nuclear power station.

    So if Chinese moly demand grows at just equal to their GDP growth (moly usage/demand tends to grow in excess of GDP, so says CPM Groups' Catherine Virga - she's pretty good), the Chinese won't have much excess supply (annually -or- accumulated) to export to the Western market by 2017. [And now their State Resource Board is buying up moly oxide there.]

    Because I mentioned it, 2017 is a seminal period, as moly production growth flat-lines in 2017/2018, and actually starts dropping, out to 2022 when Henderson ore runs out and La Caridad wraps up. Southern Copper and FXC lose their biggest moly mines between 2020 and 2022.

    Chinese growth flat-lines in 2016/2017.

    Unless the Western market can import up to a net 20mm lbs. annually out of China in the 2014-2017 period, the market will be in deficit in 2014-2015, balance in 2016-2017, and spins out-of-control (big, and growing deficits) in 2018 and beyond in Western markets. This is at 3% moly demand growth.

    This assumes that the planned increase in their moly production tax (from 8% to ??? - rumored to be 19%) doesn't force a lot of the smaller Chinese moly producers to shut down. These are the guys that need $12/lb. to break-even, and they don't get to export since their not included in the quota. So in reality, they'll need $+14/lb. oxide (domestically), not to go broke if China pops that resource tax to 19%.

    In other news, Sierra Gorda is supposed to start by August. KHGM says they'll avg. 90% of capacity this year, on avg. Me thinks they should sell what their smoking, instead of copper, moly, gold, because that would be about the first time a miner (of size) EVER ramped up that fast...... They might do 10mm moly this year, assuming they can maintain an avg. of 60% of capacity for 2014, and can capture 40% of the moly. Design spec is about 50% recovery LOM. Remains to be see how fast they can ramp-up the operation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Isn't today the third Friday of the month, options expire tomorrow? Hmmmm.

  • Anemic volume. This is how a undervalued stock sneaks by the radar...flies low.

    Last year I was interested in Gencor (GENC) . It was trading at $6.75 with $8 of cash in the bank and positive earnings. Volume was like 10,000 shares a day. I loaded up and waited. Today it trades for $11.25.

  • Reply to

    Hey Ultra re: BLM

    by carlrich Jul 17, 2014 7:50 PM

    I have no desire to pick a fight with you - I've learned a lot from you about mining in general and TC in particular. I'm a shareholder now, and (God willing) will still be a shareholder in February and May of next year. Whether their plans for the namesake mine become apparent this quarter or a few quarters from now, I'll still be here to reap the benefit. That's why I'm agnostic regarding the period of disclosure.

    Regarding their legal obligation, TC has already disclosed the impacts of a possible adverse decision - C&M. As far as I'm aware, they are not required to disclose the potential impacts of a beneficial outcome, such as a discussion of how Phase 8 would contribute to future earnings. Frankly, that's what Kevin always used to do with MM cost estimates - providing rosy descriptions and then walking backwards once the true costs were known. You appear to know more about the permitting process than I do, and perhaps approval is truly a fait accompli at this point - I'll concede that.

    The one thing that, to me, is still in play, is the timing. BLM could still delay the decision until August. The fact that TC is receiving expedited approval - perhaps as a reward for not publicizing the process - seems to suggest letting the status quo play out.

  • Was able to add another 1k shares at $2.785. Now I've got 28k shares, and if another down day comes along, I'll do it again. I'm going to keep accumulating in 1k share lots under $3, until the market wakes up to this company. Then I'll stop buying and enjoy watching the TC story unfold.

    I ain't bettin' the rent money, so I'm a very patient investor, willing to park my money in the hands of the folks at TC and let them work the very intelligent and rational plan they have for Mount Millie and the Moly Mines. (Sounds like a Canadian garage band.) Good things come to those who wait.

    Happy weekend to all.

  • Reply to

    Hey Ultra re: BLM

    by carlrich Jul 17, 2014 7:50 PM

    "Until BLM makes a public statement regarding final approval of TC's permit, I think TC would be wise to just keep silent. "

    TC is NOT obligated to remain silent, NOR SHOULD THEY.

    I disagree with your approach.

    Any statement regarding future mining at the TC mine, can (and should) be predicated with the statement "subject to BLM EIS completion, and federal & state agency permitting approval, expected next year".

    Such would not "unnerve" any of the federal or state agencies involved in the permitting process.

    These agencies are NOT ALLOWED to be "unnerved", and there is no rule or requirement that an applicant must remain 'silent' (regarding public disclosure) during the permitting-approval process, or worse, pretend they won't utilize the operation in the future by making specious statements regarding those operations.

    Publicly traded entities CANNOT remain silent on a subject such as this, if the impact of any adverse decision involving the process, could prove to have a material impact on operations.

    TC has already disclosed the permitting process at the TC Mine in 10-K Risk Items disclosures, but has steadfastly refused to mention this process in CC discussions with analysts, shareholders as being a potential (probable) reason for the care & maintenance topic.

    In the meantime, the company in their aversion to want to discuss the apparent topic (of permitting) in CC, has made several specious (and outright false) statements on several occasions regarding their Thompson Creek operations, to avoid discussing the rationale of care & maintenance, in further detail.

    This is NOT healthy, and amounts to deception.

    Plain and simple.

    How can you support that OR WANT MORE OF THAT......?

    It's time for management to explain the process underway with regards to permitting at the mine, and how it will impact operations in the interim.

    The investors will make their own decisions on the likelihood of whether c&m is a short-term or longer-term issue.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hey Ultra re: BLM

    by carlrich Jul 17, 2014 7:50 PM

    I understand that TC is free to communicate whatever they want, whenever they want. And I understand the impact that such an announcement would have on the stock price. But I also think going on record assuming approval of a pending decision is sort of a bull-in-a-china shop approach.

    There's an anecdote that I think is applicable here - Senator Bill Bradley was at a dinner and was served a roasted potato. A waiter appeared and placed a pat of butter on the Senator's plate. The Senator then asked if he could have more butter, and the waiter said no - just one pat per person. Senator Bradley then laughed and asked the waiter if he was aware who he was speaking to - Princeton Graduate, Rhodes Scholar, Professional Basketball player, Senator... The waiter listened and then said, do you know who I am? The Senator said no. The waiter said - I'm the guy in charge of the butter. He left the single pat on the Senator's plate and moved on.

    TC can, of course, say or do whatever they want. But they should also keep in mind that when it comes to approval of their plans, BLM is in charge of the butter. Until BLM makes a public statement regarding final approval of TC's permit, I think TC would be wise to just keep silent.

    But it's just a matter of approach - agree to disagree?

  • Well TC will just need to execute and let the market discover them. Meanwhile with MM running smoothly, Moly recovering and Copper hanging in this range the PPS will respond, I guess!

  • Reply to

    Are mining stocks dead?

    by ggray1956 Jul 18, 2014 10:50 AM

    Did Perron share that nugget of wisdom with you, or did you invent that one yourself.....?

    Ultra.....knows.

    Not sure what you know.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If Twitter resurfaced the employee parking lot at their corporate HQ, analysts would be gushing about the likely productivity enhancements that Twitter would realize from such, and would be rushing up bump up their earnings models...

    ....eyeballs x brainless morons, divided by Kim Kardashian's bra cup size = "OMFG......billions, dude".

    Funny how the really world is so under-appreciated in today's "modern" society.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

TC
2.83-0.01(-0.35%)Jul 24 4:02 PMEDT

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