I note the discussion on the board about company specific issues such as costs, secondary crusher or not etc. This is appropriatefor those evaluating investment in TC. HOWEVER , there appears to be a dangerous tendency here.
First of all these issues , while significant are slight adjustments one way or the other and we can't be certain of the exact impact, many things have offsetting positive and negative factor, ie the secondary crusher might increase production but hurt on the cost side thus muting the hoped for effect, BUT the big flaw that appears to be present is IGNORING the elephant in the room, which explains the longer term price action of TC shares. In the beginning of Jan 2013, Copper futures were trading somewhere in the neighborhood of $3.80 a pound. TC was trading a bit higher than $4 a share.
Now copper is trading near $3 a unit and ALL indications we have are that the world economy and demand/supply for copper etc will be lackluster or perhaps weak for as far as we can reasonably see. Look at the future contracts and you will see the prices clustered near $3 for many months and if you look further out they drop down below $3 to the $2.90 ish level. This is the elephant in the room. TC shares value SHOULD be correlated with copper prices. A $2 stock price is not ridiculously under or overvalued in light of the REALITY of the now existing copper prices and the outlook for copper prices. Do not, I REPEAT DO NOT engage in self deception by musing about the conversation we have on the board about secondary crushers etc and ignore the ELEPHANT in the room. Doing so will only lead to loss and disappointment.
While this may seem an oversimplification to "some" , it nevertheless is SOLIDLY TRUE. It is not because I want it to be, or because I am talking up my position , like some of the extreme shorts or longs do, IT JUST IS REALITY.
to the board,
this energetlc77 is an insane person.
For some reason, known only to him, he believes I am this person that he apparently has a "mission" against.
He also believes, and has posted these same accusations about MANY other people who I know are not me.
I don't even know anyone named Bernie, and I am not Bernie.
How do I know that he has posted this about many other people? I clicked on his id, and viewed the history of his posts, which I invite you to do and you can see that he never contributes anything to the boards but these accusations. A very sad , sick person he must be.
I don't know how this got started. Apparently when anyone posts on a board where one of his targeted aliases has posted, and heaven forbid, if they reply or converse with one of his targets, they get added to his list. He then follows those people around and posts what he did above, or something similar. Click on his id and see for yourself.
"A $2 stock price is not ridiculously under or overvalued in light of the REALITY of the now existing copper prices and the outlook for copper prices."
Please explain more - depends upon how you are modeling it. Even with copper at $2.70 I'm still modeling TC at about 23 cents per share from Milligan alone (and that's using $1000 as a value for gold.) Given that gold is currently 20% higher and copper 10% (and that they're grading out higher right now on recoveries) and considering the cash build I think there's reason to be optimistic.
Also, if you feel the stock is fairly valued right now, then why not simply sell and reallocate into something more promising?
You could be right but I doubt it. The people on the board who have been bullish are willing to put forth their reasons and logic for it. Have they been wrong? Clearly they have been, in terms of the expectation timeline. You on the other hand just rant like a petulant three year old. Offering no alternative logic, which saves you from ever being wrong. You disappear when the stock does well and reappear when it doesn't. You add nothing substantive. I can respect someone with a cogent thought process and opinion even if it is bearish. Clearly, that is not you.
Lots of people are coming out of the woodwork now, lying about TC openly. I am not sure why they are even here. they add nothing to this community. Zero. Zip. Zilch. You don't have to believe me. look at their past posts, it's easy enough to do. They disappear when the stock does well, and reappear to pretend to whine and bluster when the stock goes down, yet they never, ever, add any value or factual information whatsoever to this board. If you are new to this board, you should ask, why are they even here if they don't believe in this stock?
They could just sell it and leave, like normal people,
It's really pretty simple.
If you are trying to make a dime, then shorting a stock with increasing earnings, even one that's got got no positive PR and is stuck in a bad sector, then you've got to be pretty simple too.
Ultra, Reg,, Foggie, light, light, just_matt, myself etc etc etc don't continue to post on boards when we sell a stock.
Who does that? Virtually no one. No adult. No one with a life.
I personally am holding, TC, and may buy more, I'm certainly not selling it at these prices!.
Why would I sell at a low point?
Who would do that when the stock is clearly going to make more earnings Year over Year for the next two or three years?
Who does that? A crooked broker or an idiot maybe.
You should do your DD and buy when prices are low, and sell when prices are high.
This looks much more like a time to buy, not a time to sell.
If anything, lightdoesnotage has the BEST formula to "trade" this stock of anyone on here so far that's not a long term horizon investor. Listen to him, take his advice and maybe you will make $$$ short term. He does pretty well.
This stock should be about $3.50 by now if you just applied a halfway normal PE to it. The stock, the industry, and even the actual commodities themselves still have a lot of headwinds against them over the next few quarters. But, then again maybe not as much as it appears.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
This comment is misleading. It's just a bunch of unsubstantiated opinions without factual data wrapped in technical jargon to give it appearance credibility. At no point did Perron hint at targeting pyrite flotation to increase gold recovery.
In the past, when the property was owned by Placer Dome, they investigated producing a pyrite gold bearing concentrate. The concentrate had a grade of 1 gpt Au. At the current gold price with the streaming agreement, the contained metal value is 30 $/tonne. How exactly do you think that TC could extract economically the gold from that stream without resorting to cyanidation? Are you familiar with any offtake agreement for such concentrates? Are you suggesting that this could be blended back into the copper concentrate? Have you run the economics of trucking that concentrate to Endako for roasting? Why would you roast the concentrate anyways? Unless you have another magical undisclosed process to improve this; this is not likely to work.
I have been involved and witnessed a lot of these types of projects and most of them fail technically or economically and that gold ends up in the tailings pond. And I don't even want to get into scheelite processing at Endako. That's even crazier.
You are obviously a qualified accountant with some very interesting investment ideas in mining; some of which I share but I think you're over reaching. People on this board take your opinions as fact because of your accounting credentials and experience so you should be cautious about you say since it risks misleading others.
when I asked the simple question if my position of long stock and short the dec $2.50 calls would likely result in me be long the shares or assigned, you belatedly opined that I would be assigned. I do hope that is the case.
In the same post your then made the sarcastic remark about "trolls " inferring that I was of lesser worth and acumen than you , for merely suggesting the possibility that TC might trade down below $2.50 by december expiration. Hmmm, well here it is three months before that expiration date and TC has already traded below that strike
I will take the high road and not call you are "troll", but do ask that you publicly and humbly apologize for your inappropriate behavior and while you are at it, take the foot out of your mouth , please.
PS, I do hope the share price recovers and that they take the shares from me at expiration.
Why am I confident?
The realization by the market that TC's cash position will grow strongly over the next three quarters (and amount to over $300mm cash on hand, easily), and that MM will be more profitable that previously expected.
9 months ago analysts were concerned about TC running out of money in 2014, and MM being cash-flow negative until MM reached at least 80% capacity.
People were writing articles how MM was too far in the deep woods of B.C. for it's products to get to market profitably.
All kinds of idiocy was written, and the market fell for it.
In Q2, MM operated at 65% capacity and generated $47.7mm in cash flow. The analysts said it should have lost money, and had negative cash flow.
A move to $2.50 per share is up 6%.
A move to $3.00 per share is up 27%.
No great shakes.
So the question is this: Why are you so negative?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Hundreds of aliases. Soft basher. Liar, shill and forklift driver extraordinaire.
Clown has been at it for years. A real prize.
Bernie Ellis, Call or txt.
TC going through rough time now. Do hope all investor (gambler) here retain their composure. Don't turn on your fellow investor. Do know some gambler who beat his wife and kick the dog when he lose. Not much of a man. This kind of guy is jerk. Let have no jerk here.
Remember who bought your stock. You did. Not Ultra. Not Dragon. If you want to blame someone when TC go down, look in mirror. That the jerk who bought the stock.
Let keep it classy.
Soon, it will be $0.00 (or negative) per lb........
Maybe this will turn some heads.......
Good time to buy more shares.....
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Yahoo filters everything except that which has Yahoo in the name. So you just have to preface (that mean put before) all your questionable words with Yahoo.
Example: Perron is a Yahoocock Yahoosucker Yahoocrook or just a Yahoodumb Yahooass.
ultra's got the fundamentals right. I've spreadsheeted and cross checked his numbers several times and don't see anything that causes me concern. If some of you do, list them so we can comment. Be specific.
This is basically a commodity play on copper and to a lesser extent gold and possibly moly.
Copper prices are projected by both future options and analysts to be fairly stable for the next couple of years.
The quarterly cash flow and operational data have been as projected and maybe a little better.
By all fundamental measurements, the stock is very cheap.
The "scary" debt now looks manageable with the projected cash flow and refinancing prospects
What else do you guys want in a stock beyond instant gratification?
The entire mining industry is out of favor and all the ships, good and bad rise and fall with the tide.
One whiff of metal shortages or inflation will make the entire group rise as fast as it fell.
TC is a potential 5 bagger. All that's needed is patience.
Been doing this for almost 60 years and been down this same road many times.
Patience laddies, patience.
All these "longs" on here have been lying to you. They told you that Q2 would be the savior for TC, with 4 truck loads reported and all kinds of good stuff. They told you it would be at $4 by now. Where is it? This is a dumpy stock and I told you guys it would drop more, and no one listened. Do not listen to these liars on here anymore. They just want you to buy the stock so their own shares will go up higher in price so they can sell and get out!
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Thompson Creek Reports Significantly Improved Third Quarter 2014 Financial Results
Revenue up 153%, Operating Income up 1,318%, Operating Cash Flow up 326%
and a Cash Balance of $267 Million
Sentiment: Strong Buy
when a stock, gets beat up badly , on deteriorating fundamentals, as TC has, that the desperation of posters who have been in denial about the reality, start talking about buyouts?
This is some human psychological compensation for the pain they feel, and does not represent the reality, just as they failed to see the reality when TC was at $3 plus , that, it was toppy, that if fundamentals declined as they have, that the stock price would decline
ie when I nibbled at TC in Aug, with the share price at $2.75, copper was at $3.20, gold etc was also much higher than the current prices. TC has naturally come down because of the weakened commodities along with the realization that the future outlook as far as we can reasonably see is for more of the same,
There will be no buyout , for the simple reason that in the industry , those that would be candidates for doing the buying out, are already facing their own excess capacity problems, They already have too much plant and production relative to demand, why in the world would they be interested int bidding UP for TC.
Yes , if things get so bad , that TC goes bankrupt and becomes liquidated there would be buyers, but that is a very different thing that a buyout of the whole company at a premium. So those hoping for a buyout, should be careful what they wish for,. If it happens in the next year, it could only be in a liquidation and that means the common shareholders would get ZERO, only the debt holders would get pennies on the dollar.
Note I am not predicting this will happen, I speak about it only to make the TRUE point that there will be no buyout at a premium. (it only exists in the imagination of desperate longs , not in reality of the people who would be involved).
That one funny letter. Do, wife and girlfriend laugh our bippy off. First of all, all of the intelligent people whom Do know have high IQ. (do you know what the letter IQ stand for?)
Let just say we believe you really do talk with industry executives. Give us an example of how a conversation would go. Let pretend you were calling Mr Potato Head, for example, what would you say?
Keep posting, Arnold. It get very boring around here waiting for the price to go up. By now, your new friend Pudentane probably realizes that Do was right. He realizes you are a nut. And, Do say that in a very sincere way. We have a couple economist here. A CPA. A would be financial writer. A couple gators. An ex-miner. A jar of peanut butter. A bleeding heart liberal. And now we have a nut. Welcome to the board.
you are a drama llama. just so we are clear... we all know that you dont talk to executives in the mining industry so you can just put that puppy to bed. In short, get of your high horse.
I know your post was meant to be funny, but sadly you are not too far from the truth.
A year into the job and Perron is STILL a worse communicator than GW Bush was.
I believe Reg_got hit the nail on the head when he said the analysts and larger investors have been burned so many times that they are very slow to trust TC now , they are in a "prove it to me mindset" which may last another 3 or 4 quarters. And Perron is not helping at all. I think he had the right idea to be conservative in his approach, but he has taken it so far to the extreme that it's actually hurting TC now.
An almost comical lack of CLARITY from management and a serious and obvious lack of TRANSPARENCY on both the TC mine and the Mt Milligan mine leave analysts and investors alike always waiting for the other shoe to drop. A stock's PPS is one part sector, one part perception, one part overall market and one part company results. The company results are doing fine, but I know many investors that would argue that the company's results are actually the smallest component of the stock price. (I don't agree, but that's another series of posts entirely.)
The mining sector is still perceived as mediocre at best (but it appears from various news reports that some front running contrarian money is bargain hunting the mining sector right now).
However the perception of TC is too muddled to even understand right now. This is coming up on the end of Perron's first year on the job, and I'd have to give him a D.
So far, execution-wise I would give him a "C+" (maybe a "B-" if I was feeling super generous - but we'll wait and see what happens with the TC mine first before giving a higher than a "C+"...). But on increasing the PPS and the value perception of TC, also his job, he has to get an "F".
So overall, he gets a "D" right now.
Although a lot of CEO's would LIKE to argue increasing the PPS is not their job, in fact it is as much a part of the "C" suite as company execution and strategy.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
bill be a man and stand up and be honest the decision to buy TC is and was yours and yours alone. Nobody here made that decision for you or the decision to sell or not sell, that is/was yours too.
Have a drink and quit trying to blame others for your decisions......