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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

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  • Reply to

    I Warned You

    by dadufuss Sep 20, 2014 11:46 AM

    ultra is on dude who doesn't need defending. He can well take care of himself.
    Sometimes fundamentals are right on and market timing is off.
    I've told this story before, but it's a good example of what may be happening now with TC.
    I was an insider at a bank that was squeaky clean and had almost perfect fundamentals.
    All the insiders knew it and were vacuuming up all the shares they could lay their hands on. Then the S&L crisis hit and all S&L's and Banks went into the toilet for a year or more. The good went down with the bad. PPS went down half or more. Fundamentals or quality of loan portfolios didn't mean squat.
    When the crisis passed, the tide lifted all financials to the upside and our bank tripled in about six months.
    All the TC estimates look right to me and my opinion is that TC is in the process of being painted with a tarred brush. TC is and always has been a commodity play and dependent on the prices of copper, gold and moly.
    Just a whiff of inflation should sent all mining stocks skyward. The bad along with the good./

  • Reply to

    I Warned You

    by dadufuss Sep 20, 2014 11:46 AM

    Rambling is a good description of your post. You hit all the negative keywords without offering one fact or thought process to substantiate it. So far the technical people have been pretty accurate about the performance of TC as a company. They generally don't make predictions about the stock price. So you need to tell us why TC is tanking, going to the pink sheets and inevitably demised. Otherwise you're just tiresome and without credibility.

  • Reply to

    So what say you now?

    by muffintopscutie Sep 19, 2014 4:20 PM

    Right on Muffin, TC is a typical example of mining stocks. For every one that has any success, multitudes fail and it has fail written all over it...The longs become so wrapped up in their quest for riches, they fail to admit that they are watching their dream turn into a nightmare and reality escapes them...That is what they call Gold Fever. The only chance to stop the bleeding from a management perspective is if the company scrapes together all the cash they can get and use it to buy their stock back and support those loyal shareholders who are getting taken to the woodshed...But they won't do that because they know they would only be wasting their cash with the management they have in place.... The new motto should be, "PUMP AND DUMP" i.e. pump the stock price by buying back shares and dump the top management.....

  • Here is what I can guess for Q1 2015 production and net income:

    Endako: 2M pounds @ $12 pound production cost, $12 pound sale price, $24m revenue, $0 net income

    TC: residual sales of some small amount, maybe 2M pounds, $24m revenue, $16m net income

    Lang: $3m revenue

    MM: 90% capacity during the quarter, $3.10 avg. copper selling price $1200 gold. $1.40 adjusted cost per pound copper. $110M revenue, $35M net income

    Total Q1 2015 revenue $161m, net income $41m, interest expense $22.5m, net income including interest expense: $18.5m or $.08 per diluted share.

    The driver in late 2015 will be an advanced deal to refinance the 350m 2017 9.75% notes at a more reasonable rate. A deal to refinance at 7% would mean an extra $9.5m per year net income or $0.04 per diluted share. This coupled with reaching 100% of design capacity by end of 2015 would mean 2016 earnings of $0.24 to $0.28 per share in 2016 even without any moly.

  • Reply to

    Q1 2015 production/income

    by lightdoesnotage Sep 21, 2014 11:00 AM

    Wow that's great, at that rate it will take over 30 years to pay off debt. Back up the truck, I'm in

  • A Mexican copper mine which spewed millions of gallons of acid into a river last month is still causing pollution and the facility's owners are blocking the work of investigators probing the accident, authorities said.

    "As of this moment, the government of Sonora (state) totally breaks off any relationship with the mining company," which is continuing to discharge toxic substances in the river, director of the state civil protection agency, Carlos Arias said at a press conference Friday.

    "We will act with the full weight of the law, because they are already in a plan that cannot continue," Arias said, adding the government was mulling permanent closure of the mine.

    Buenavista is one of the largest copper mines in the world.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Q1 2015 production/income

    by lightdoesnotage Sep 21, 2014 11:00 AM

    That is not how it works. Debt doesn't rise with inflation for one thing but metals tend to. Thus in 10 years the debt in 2014 dollars might only be 75% of the value it is now.

    If by 2018 they have refinanced 900m at 7% and paid down 90m from the current debt with cash on hand, they will have net income of 95m after debt payment. Figure 158m income from MM at flat metal prices of $3.10 copper $1.40 cost of copper and 63m in debt payment.

    Applying $60m a year toward the debt and increasing that amount by 7% per year they would have it paid off by 2028, 14 years from now.

    Increasing inflation, increasing metal prices, eventual moly production starting back up and they could pay off the debt by 2025 or even earlier, at which point a small dividend of say, 15% would be easily possible.

  • (Reuters) - The union at the world's largest copper mine, Chile's Escondida, has called a strike for Sept. 22 and 24, aiming to paralyze activity to win improved working conditions, the union said on Monday.

    In a surprise announcement on Monday evening, the Sindicato No. 1 union said it would call on its 2,800 members to stage two 24-hour strikes at the mine, which is controlled by global miner BHP Billiton Plc .

    Escondida, in northern Chile's copper belt, produced 1.19 million tonnes of copper last year, about 20 percent of the output from Chile, the world's top copper producer.

    The union carried out a similar 24-hour stoppage over pay and conditions last year, without causing any long-term impact on copper production. However, it stunned the copper market in 2011 by staging a two-week strike that sent the mine's output tumbling.

    RIGHT NOW JUST FYI. WELL SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Q1 2015 production/income

    by lightdoesnotage Sep 21, 2014 11:00 AM

    Net Income does not equal cash flow, silly goose.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    So what say you now?

    by muffintopscutie Sep 19, 2014 4:20 PM

    Hehehehehe - meant ta say strong buy at these prices - ya buy when stuffs cheap an sell when it's higher, like private guy or dragon or some said earlier!

    An I ain't pumpin nuthin. TC is a risk like any other miner, bettern some, worsen some too.
    But the downside hear visa versa the upside look mighty dang good, but I'm really here for a buyout, fat chick,

    Lemmie splain this so's even yo can unnerstan chubby girl.

    Ifn I'm in the market for a new car, why would I go outnumber build one for 25 dollars when kin buy a near new one fer 15-18 dollars with a coupla motorcycles thrown in, even if one ain't running?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    So what say you now?

    by muffintopscutie Sep 19, 2014 4:20 PM

    An yo fussy dad, ya another piece o work!
    I do know '. Bout no other longs but I'm still up some 20% or so an I expect to double or triple mah money here in 4-5 years an for me that's pretty sweet.
    Don't know bout you fussed, but thas a putty dang nice return fer those 'o us that ain't lying through are teeth. I ain't no wolf o wall street, most advisors tell me ta be happy with 6% a year in tha market, I figure some TC just might juice that up some hehehe

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I Warned You

    by dadufuss Sep 20, 2014 11:46 AM

    You a dang fool an. Liar to boot!
    I'll bet ya $100 cash TC WILlL be around -an not a pink sheet stock on Jan 1st 2016 if she ain't bought out by then!

    You care ta put yer money where ta mouth is or are ya just some some scared little mamas boy?

    I'll trust gatr55 hold tour money, he seems like a smart an honest feller with no agenda, long or short.

    Betcha you'd get dozens o takers for this bet.
    You could make a fortune in side bets here since ya got all the answers!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Q1 2015 production/income

    by lightdoesnotage Sep 21, 2014 11:00 AM

    Man yo way too conservative. Costs r at least 20% too high on Endako, long term profits way to cheap for Ole Milly, an you figuring nothing from TC mine ever again?

  • Reply to

    Garbage in garbage out

    by billsmodel Sep 20, 2014 8:35 AM

    Look at auy a mining favorite always make money buying cheap

  • Options expiration? Short selling to take out some stops to build/further build a position? Blow out weak hands with a sharp drop on 3x the ave volume. Down in sympathy with other miners? An aberration? Price of gold? When gold was going up, TC pps didn't seem to respond. Besides gold does not impact TC earnings that much as only 48% of prod responds to au prices. There was no conference presentation. No specific company news. I don't believe TC's pps has moved down 20 cents in a day, in a few years, especially after having been weak for the prior 2 weeks. So, what happened? We are pretty sure to get prod #s in 2-2 1/2 wks. Seems to be good consensus on what they'll be. Those plus a good guess on metal prices and we should have a good fix on earnings. People are talking about .08 to .12 a share with good cash build.

  • Reply to

    What happened Fri

    by carlrich Sep 21, 2014 1:06 PM

    I don't understand the 4m share volume. I could see it selling off on low volume. My guess is some funds were just selling all small cap miners as SSRI was also down 7% on very high volume. I think the funds were freeing up money so they could gamble on fraud China stock Alibaba.

  • Reply to

    What happened Fri

    by carlrich Sep 21, 2014 1:06 PM

    I'd agree but not a lot funds hold this one as a component.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What happened Fri

    by carlrich Sep 21, 2014 1:06 PM

    I'd say short attack. But reason? Maybe expiration? Maybe deal leaked? Maybe just cuz?

  • Reply to

    Garbage in garbage out

    by billsmodel Sep 20, 2014 8:35 AM

    Same here Bill, buying calls, especially OTM calls, is a poor way to play TC due to factors outside of TC's control that we cannot predict.
    I was, am in the same boat as you. Tempered my calls with common stock though, and the bulk of the rest of my calls are deep ITM and should be fine.
    Lesson learned. Don't buy calls except on momentum stocks and sell them when you have a profit, right? Always easier said than done.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Garbage in garbage out

    by billsmodel Sep 20, 2014 8:35 AM

    I'm holding jan '15 and '16 $1 and $2 calls so I'm still ITM and up substantially on the 2016s, but way off the highs. TC had upward momentum when I bought them, and failing to harvest profits is a lesson I keep learning over and over the hard way on this and others. Not a big deal. I'm done whining. The issue now is whether to double down or pick up any TC stock. I haven't purchased any in many months.

TC
1.76+0.07(+4.14%)Dec 19 4:02 PMEST

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