High sales growth rate should continue as alternatives become more widespread.
Plenty of cash to run operations in a downturn with little debt gives Green Plains financial flexibility.
Dips provide good long-term entry opportunities while current momentum makes for a compelling short-term trade.
For the last two years, Green Plains has exploded, with its stock rising 145 percent and 127 percent in 2013 and 2014, outperforming its peer group by over 100 percent in both years.
Strong sales growth has pulled the company into consistently profitable territory, from $189 million in 2008 sales to more than $3.1 billion in 2013, a 75 percent 5-year compound annual growth rate.
I noticed they will feed your calltle on the website but I didn't see any mention about them buying the cattle to put on the lof for you. Seems like they have a lot of cattle feed to get rid of this year and the spread is real nice.
Goto to gpre press releases 8/11/2014, sign in for 15 minute presentation by ceo Todd Becker for a very bullish presentation on Green Plains. As result, Green Plains is up 4.4% today to $ 42.26.
My target for gpre by end of year. First 1/2=$1.96; 2nd 1/2 net = $1.70. Total for year $3.66 net earnings/share, times 17 PE =Price target by end of year=$ 62.
Don't fogetr feedyard with 70,000 head at $250 profit per head=$17 million net income.
Crop Consultant Nebraska
I had grabbed that stat from commentary on either a GPRE annual report or a conference call script a few quarters ago. Things have changed a bit since then as GPRE has a higher number of shares outstanding, but then again, their production output has increased significantly because of the BIOF plants they purchased and frankly just about wipes the increase in shares.
The principal equation is the same.
Unfortunately GPRE hedged themselves out of some greater profits this Q, but it was a good Q nonetheless. Just less than "analysts expectations". Whatever that means. Expectations are relative.
Forward P/E still solid, current margin environment still solid and expected to stay solid. Price target of $50 very real. Will just take time the get there. Patience.
Q3 will be better.
we will focus on leveraging our production and marketing advantages to further increase profitability and expand our share of the growing market for low-carbon renewable fuels."
Not this Q. Your logic should apply more appropriately to Q3. They hedged themselves to profits less than the street was expecting. Would be good to hear the CC and what other factors affected their bottom line.
Elahens believes WDG costs. Possible.
Generally ethanol companies operating more in the cash environment should bode better ... for now.
Buy the dips. Ethanol production fundamentals are very good and show no signs of changing. Todd Becker and management team are solid all around.
Good luck all traders and longs
GPRE could earn net profits of around $100,000,000 during the present quarter if the price of ethanol remains around $2.10 and they can buy corn for an average price of $3.50. They are bidding as low as $3.14 at their Otter Tail plant. That would be $2.70 per share in one quarter. If they were able to purchase corn at $4.50 per bushel and sell ethanol at $2.10 during the quarter they are going to report this afternoon, they could have earned somewhere in the neighborhood of $60 million net profit, which would be $1.61 per share for the quarter. The average estimate is $.96 per share. If they were to beat by $.65 cents, what do you think the stock would do?
solid performance. Ethanol is going to serve many needs in the months/years to come as the world experiments with freedom, chaos, and and more freedom.
Many hard days ahead, and ethanol/alternate fuels will be there to help in a big way.
Where have corn prices gone since the end of Q1? As importantly (or more so for the direction of the stock price) where have they gone since the end of Q2?
Let's not forget:
"According to page 36 of the report every 10% decrease in corn price leads to an increase in net income of nearly $84 million. With only 30.12 million shares outstanding, this is a pretty significant boost to earnings."
We've had a 27% decrease in corn prices from $4.70 to $3.70.
Good luck all traders and longs
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Diversified yes, but simple process.
You put corn in and you get 3 products out (ethanol, DDG or WDG and corn oil).
If you do not want to recognize that all products can be sold on a future curve, or the Futures market is not BIG enough for high volume of ethanol gallons can be pre-sold,
then be it.
DDG came down more than 50%. Producers may have to store their DDG to sell later. If this is the case in 3Q, they will incurr cost but not 100% of revenue on DDG produced during the quarter. So some producers will see cost and increased inventory with reduced margins.
Keep looking at crush spread only. Positive margins is still up.
But does bottom line needs to reset/re-forecasted, specially very little presell of DG can be executed. Thus the purchase of 'cow feeding' operations by GPRE. Others (like VLO, ANDE, REX..) may have farmer cooperatives to take on what they can consume. However DDG volume being shipped to China was a large percentage of production. The challenge is what it is. Lower price is a by-product of supply/demand.
As fuel export drives ethanol production, DDG byproduct supply is in surplus mode.
Buy the total backet, but do not ignore the pieces.
I'm worried about the current state of the general market. Every day it feels like we are on pins and needles and if she implodes GPRE will suffer....
IMO just a matter of how much it will go up on earnings release day. Clearly they are getting nice margins and that's not ending with corn well below $4 and very weak. Wouldn't surprise me if adm or some large company buys them out. Too many reasons to buy the company. My guess is after earnings all the analysts will be dramatically raising yearly guidance etc. Stock could easily double yet this year. Have a nice day.
GPRE's diversified (and expanding) revenue stream will absorb any price fluctuations in DDG. Period.
How? Hint ... What percentage of GPRE's total income is DDG sales vs. ethanol sales? Do the math, calculate the net added revenue from multi-year low corn basis ethanol margins (remember they're a commodities brokerage too) and net added production over the past quarter (BIOF plants) to what result? A $45+ price target based on a fair P/E ratio.
Go take your scare tactics to another board ... loser.
They don't work here.
GPRE will outshine your fuzzy math any time
Too funny, "still positive"? How bout objectively speaking- still VERY strongly positive! Come back to the peix board, we miss you! And your constant changing of your mind from short to long......didnt you go to strong sell of peix at 14? Good call! Lol