**Watch OUT ! A Start-up Monster - "LOCALZZ" $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ 1400+ Sites - 300+ social accounts
I know of 5 companies in my city that have creates fake reports to make themselves look good on Angies list. How many in other cities. Any company can create false reports to make them look good, I will NEVER use this service.
The more I think about it, the more I believe analysts will be mentally adding back stock based compensation & amortization to get to non gaap EPS(despite that the company doesn't do that) and raise targets when noting non gaap EPS is actually being guided for $.40+ for 2015. Also although the naysayers are pointing to decreasing membership revenues yoy, Service reveunes are going up substantially(28% yoy for the Dec qtr), and they now represent 80% of total revenues. Actual number of memberships is expected to grow from 3M at the end of 2014 to around 3.6M in 2015. That's an increase of 20%.
Bottom line is, advertisers don't care how much in revenues ANGI is getting from their members. All they care about is, that memberships are rising. Even with the lower marketing expenses, memberships are expected to rise nicely in 2015, and advertisers are likely to continue doing business.
Naysayers are pointing out that average revenues/qtr will not be growing from the Dec qtr 2014, in 2015. However when you take a deeper look, service revenues are slated to rise by 20%+, while membership revenues are expected to be flat to down. What this does, when combined with decreased marketing expenses, and decreased G&A expenses vs last year is, give ANGI a profit for the first time in 20 years !
My opinion is, investors and analysts will be speculating that ANGI has likely turned the corner to be a consistantly profitable business, and will continue to grow earnings in 2015 & 2016. The stock price should follow in an upward trend to the $10 area by mid mid year IMO.
I already owned stock at 5.80 & 6.25. I bought more at 4.55, bought more at 5.15, and bought more at 6.44. I will buy as much as I can as often as I can when it is under $7. Even if it drops under $5 again I don't care. I'll buy even more. There will be a point when the world says "oh $#%@, this is a different Angie's List".
If you are looking to day trade this stock you may be able to make some money here and there with the volatility. But I'm looking to accumulate a position that will triple or quadruple in the next few years.
Pretend this stock never went public and you had to determine whether or not to invest. Stop looking at candlesticks and look at all of the steps this company is taking:
- Who they are bringing in and the type of experience those people have
- How they are now spending their money (are they getting more or less efficient)?
- How they are diversifying their revenue streams
- Are they finally building enterprise infrastructures?
- How they are pursuing strategic alliances.
They got to 3M members without doing virtually any of this. They kind of stumbled into 3M members.
Now they are acting like a real company that is serious about being a player in this space. Ask yourself what happens when you no longer have to pay to use Angie's List.
If they got 3M that are willing to pay, how many more members would join if it were free for a basic membership? And if they have discovered that they can monetize members through Ecommerce at a rate 10 times the revenue of a simple $10 per year membership, the flood gates are going to open. If you look at what they are doing you can see this is exactly the direction they are going.
I know many of you will ignore my posts to your own detriment but PLEASE PLEASE bookmark it so you can come back here when this stock is soaring past $20.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Certainly don't buy in this $5-8 range like a bunch of insiders did over the past few months. They surely don't know anything. lolz.
Privately owned LOCALZZ rolls AngelIntern and AngelInterns - Interns helping local businesses advertise, market, and utilize technology
probably back to where it was before last earnings. I would not be buying at any level but that's just my opinion.
It amazes me that analysts are using around $.15 GAAP estimates for 2015, when almost every company I look at is being valued using non gaap EPS. The Non Gaap mesaures for earnings almost always adds back stock based compensation & amortization. If we take the $29M avg EBITDA, and convert that to non gaap, by simply adding back stock based compensation and amortization to Net Income, ANGI would be guiding for $.40+ EPS in 2015 ! Don't analysts know that ?
Discountzz, Servicezz, Productzz, Marketplacezz, Ratingzz, Businessezz by the LOCALZZ! and 200 more
I sure hope it never sees 7.00 again. Yes I am short. I believe that this company will be zero in 2 years. With that said I have a trailing stop to lock in my gains on my short.
I wanted to short at 18.00 but the short interest was too high and I just new the crooks would push this past 22 which they did. Then I stopped watching it until last weeks 50% move. Now that was a laugh that I just had to jump in and short. So yes I hope this never sees 7.00 again.