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The St. Joe Company Message Board

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  • Any of the old crowd still around and want to talk about what a turd JOE is just like in the good ol' days?

  • tachelake@gmail.com by tachelake Apr 11, 2014 2:02 PM Flag

    The graphic showing JOE's stock price has a maximum setting (i.e. more than five years data). If you read across you'll see that JOE is selling for less than it did twenty years ago (i.e. 1994). At that point they obviously had hundreds of thousands of additional acres that have now been sold off. So effectively twenty years with zero value added. An interesting record!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    What is the value of their land?

    by johnluckywin Feb 28, 2014 11:47 AM

    Joe has a bizarre business model. They sell their land, give the land sales proceeds to the officers, directors, and if there is anything else, to the shareholders, and at the end of the year they have neither the land nor the money. It might take a few short term bounces, but I predict nothing good for the long term.

    16 years ago they had a viable paper mill, railroad, and box plant operation, all making money. They owned over a million acres of land and their share price was $70, $80/share. Now they are down to about 150,000 acres, a small revenue stream, and the share price is

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Granted this is only one part of JOE's operations, but houses are selling fast in JOE's Southwood development in Tallahassee. Houses for sale are being snapped up in a matter of days and existing vacant lots are seeing a lot of construction. I would estimate there are less than 10 vacant lots available for construction and all those are already sold. A new area which was formerly open land owned by JOE has just opened and construction just started about two months ago. There are probably 25 lots which are in the new area.

  • Reply to

    What is the value of their land?

    by johnluckywin Feb 28, 2014 11:47 AM
    tachelake@gmail.com tachelake Mar 7, 2014 12:15 PM Flag

    There has been longstanding debate between the longs and shorts on the value of St Joe's land. Frankly it comes down to two issues: do you believe that a city is about to spring up on their remaining land in the near future and do you believe their developments are going to attract people in the near future. St Joe has been selling land for years and using the money to fund expenses and build developments. The problem is that the developments didn't attract many buyers. Their website highlights that they have government approvals for 30,000+ lots but they are only selling 100-200 per year. As an investor can you really wait 150-300 YEARS for them to sell those lots before moving on to develop the rest of their land? The remaining land is concentrated in northwest Florida and the hope is that Panama City etc will expand out to this area. The issue is that PC has to keep expanding and do so for decades before it reaches St Joe's land. St Joe is trying to create standalone satellite city development but, after years of trying, they are no where near getting the traction, in housing, industry, jobs etc. that they need. Personally, as is where is, I would say that St. Joe's land is worth less that the current market capitalization. However there are major hedge fund shareholders and i suspect that they are sustaining the current market price.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    What is the value of their land?

    by johnluckywin Feb 28, 2014 11:47 AM

    What is the value of the land....great question. It depends on the perspective from which you're asking. From an investor point of view, it is probably not relevant, as the underlying value of the land hasn't had a correlation to the stock price for decades. Not since the land was used for recurring income (railroad, timber, sugar, etc.) has the company been valued on the income generated and the political influence leveraged by the land holding. The stock price is now just a bid -ask barometer for the instituional holders that have unfortunately created an illiquid commodity due to their inability to unload the shares without tanking the price. Now, if you're asking what the value of the land is from the executive's point of view, it is tied to their compensation packages which can be found in the 10k. Given the corporate tax rate and the need to cover a fairly heavy operational burden with either land sales income or debt draws, you might want to exercise caution before underwriting the value based on the per acre metric that often gets people's interest up. Good company with decent assets, just difficult to effectively connect to a shareholder model. What other company sells the majority of the underlying assets only to see a flat stock price?

  • Reply to

    up 7% on earnings beat

    by fisherick Feb 28, 2014 11:21 AM

    My predikshun JOE to $80 a share

  • Reply to

    What is the value of their land?

    by johnluckywin Feb 28, 2014 11:47 AM

    Wrong question. Nobody pays attention to the current value(s) of their land, even when they sell 2/3 of it which they did a few months ago. There are always these stories about how the remaining land is gonna be so valuable in the future. Question never is, "How's the land selling?" but rather, "How are the stories selling?"

  • They only have 38 million in debt and cash of 23 million. Net debt of 15 million. Seems like im missing something.

  • assemble the legends.....calling winkie#$%$, fisher et al.........even auroleon. advice from the sages sorely needed!!

  • Reply to

    My predikshun

    by stockfisher2015 Dec 19, 2013 1:39 PM

    Bump!

  • Einhorn nice call shorting gmcr made over 400 large on the long side

  • Reply to

    Where is my "Buddy" STOCKFISHER?

    by stockfisher.2015 Jan 18, 2014 10:10 AM

    Funny stuff!

  • Reply to

    Another happy customer

    by kouter_jay Dec 18, 2013 8:41 PM

    I still don't know what this has to do with JOE being the turd Backie and I told everyone it was years ago?

  • Reply to

    Where is my "Buddy" STOCKFISHER?

    by stockfisher.2015 Jan 18, 2014 10:10 AM

    Hey STOCKFISHER, while making your wife bark like a dog, I showed her all the "man sites" I posted your information on. Boy, was she surprised! She told me she had heard rumors but didn't believe they were true.

    Have fun explaining that!

JOE
18.03-0.12(-0.66%)12:21 PMEDT

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