I dropped in for a look. My last look at this issue suggested that the EU/Greece would not allow the reserves (negative) to be offset till they had real evidence that the new stockholders (Greece government and the Greek taxpayers) would not incur further losses. I will say the stock price here has moved up quite a bit since then, and I will be looking at this in the next few weeks. That said, I'm not optimistic for a dividend in 2014.
I remain shocked by how well the price here has held. Not so good for me, as a collapse might attract some of my cash!
Good luck to all,
Total shareholder equity is €6,814. Reserves & retained earnings is €-7,232 or €-4,741 depending on whether you include the currency translation reserve and some other items. Share capital is €2,073 and share premium is €11,974. There can be no dividends until retained earnings is positive. Luckijack had posted many months ago that NBG has an obligation this year to move some of the share premium account to offset retained earnings. How much is moved will greatly determine when to expect dividends to be resumed.
need to hear talk of common dividend resumption in the quarterly results transcripts (most likely from analyst Q&A), that's a better way to forecast the weather. IMO, Peyton Manning wins a THIRD superbowl before this thing pays.
Assuming that NBG finishes the fiscal year with a profit (seems likely at this point), the dividend should be turned back on as there will be distributable profits. Thoughts?
Good for NBG, derisks the bank. Greek govt 2013 budget forcasted to be in surplus; also, positive mood re. discussions with Toika on the next bailout install.
Interesting. I have held some preferred since the bottom fell out last year and started accumulating in Sept 2013 at around 4.25. Sold almost all of it in connection with the tender offer at 12.59, but still hold some and have been adding. I think id divys are reinstated ( which I expect in the next 6 months) we see19 in a year. I also own a few thousand of the common which i began to acquire after you did. Probably will add to it looking for 7 or 8.I also own LYG at 4,46 along with all of the usual suspects ;SAN. BBVA, IRE, ING etc. Obviously hoping for a European bank recovery. You might look at BSBR which is still undervalued in my opinion and which I started accumulating at 5.72. Good luck
There are a lot of people talking about NBG common (to many)!!! any guess? What type of direct or indirect influence has NBG price on the Pref?
I started a position at 3.65 in NBG common and I"m still holding 75% of my Pref also I started LYG at 4.75 any one?
Nice job on the NBG prefs...wish I would have joined in on this one as well. Only so much dry powder at the time. Best JW
For any pref traders looking for a bet. Sharing update from the post in dec 2011. 3 of 4 LBHI Cap Trust prefs had venue change (moved back to pinks from greys on OTC). Looks like reallocation to higher classes may be ending and LBHI still has illiquid assets along with TBD NOLs (google "the case for lehman brothers crain's new york")
Price has moved up from .07/share to ~.20-.40/share. Disclosure - I am long and holding still from 2011 for the LBHI end game. My thx again for those who shared thoughts on RBS and AEG prefs.
Disinvestment in the National by banking subsidiaries in Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, FYROM and Albania and the gradual disposal of 40% equity stake in Finansbank agreed, based on information, the management of the Directorate General for Competition of the European Commission (DG Comp).
The National is required to reduce its presence abroad by 50% until 2017 and under this restructuring plan provides for the gradual disposal of 40% of Finansbank maintaining a majority stake (60%) and the sale of other subsidiaries in the Balkans.
The banking business in Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, FYROM and Albania constitute 10% of the loan portfolio of the group of National and how their sales will be decided based on the draft strategy undertaken to prepare the FSF as major shareholder of systemic banks.
Meanwhile, the National is committed to reduce its stake in the share capital of Finansbank by 40% by 2017 to limit to 60%. Finansbank, participates with 25% in loan portfolio of the group.
Of course this shot can tip to the side of the Turkish bank if the EIB managed to secure funds from the sale of non core business assets that are either not included in the restructuring plan or achieved earlier than expected.
As he wrote the Euro2day.gr, Target National is 2 1 capital-enhancing (selling more than 51% of Pangaea, sale of NBG Asset Management and agreement Arch Re - National Insurance) that is expected to be completed by the end of year to raise funds more than 550 million by increasing the index EBA Core Tier I levels above 10.3%.
This would enable it to negotiate from another position for DG Comp individual actions restructuring plan to reduce its presence abroad.
How this is going to working out? pref will stay in the good bank? about the profits? can they start to pay div early?
Profit will take down losses. It will not go to preferred holders. The focus of Troika/Greece was shifted this summer to reduce as much as possible the Greece taxpayer burden for the bank bailout. It appears so far that they will not make a profit on the government shares, so they will keep divi restrictions in place until NBG is making good money. As you know, they declared that asset sales could not be used for dividends; that said, a combination of asset sales AND profits could, when and if profits are adequate to support the dividends and allow retained earnings to grow.
Finally, the dividends guess timeframe in this message sequence that I responded to (9/25) presumed significant Finansbank sale.
thanks Jack nice hear from you, let me ask what do you think about finansback story? look that they are going to sell it a little by little in 2014 and 2015 how that profit will be used?
These outcome frames, with probabilities, are always guessy, but good effort.
(1) reinstatement due from gov preferred -- I give this 50%, and in 2-4 years, and this will be due to profits which combines your other option -- cause the current status of gov preferred is no divi till profits (dictate by the EU). Fine tuning, I'd say well over 50% in 3 years, in 2016, based on 2015 results.
(2) New tender offer, 60% and 1-2 years. My probabilities here are generally mutually exclusive. Price, maybe $15-16 depending on trading and financial results.
(3) call at par, yes, it is going to happen, and I give it higher than your 30%, depends in part on the regulatory status. They appear to be allowing these to remain as Tier 1 capital, something I believe would be in error, and if so, it may not occur for some time, like that 5 year terminal point you use.
(4) loss due to politics. I give this pretty low probability. your 5% low enough. Won't happen unless both the government changes AND Greece stays stagnant or collapses further. I think Syriza had pretty much given up on nationalization of banks, in discussions with the EU.
Though I suspect preferred prices here may languish for some time, they have remained much stronger than I thought. And due to the fact is is not 2009 where we had tons of beaten up preferred stock in the doldrums, now not so many, which has really helped prices here -- were it 2009 right now and based on the Greece situation today, these would be trading at a couple bucks or so IMO. And, here, there is light enough down the road for the patient. Not for me, but I check in time to time and would enter if I though a 1 year hold would be assured good results (like over 50%).
The troika had asked and now it is official the final withdrawal National from Turkey and the full sale of Yet after state the ultimate negotiations with the National DGCom managed to get an extension until the end of 2014 to sell 40% to 51% of Finansbank. NBG will hold a strategic stake in Finansbank.
The profit would help move retained earnings towards the positive. Until retained earnings are positive there is no dividend. Once retained earnings are positive they would need distributable net profits to pay a dividend.
Sale of Finansbank helps retained earnings, but hurts profits. I think the sale is good for preferred, but bad for common. As Jack pointed out on Sep 2, it will be interesting to see what they do with the share premium account. They appear to have the tools to get to distributable profits fairly quickly should they choose to do so.
Agreement to sell 40% in 2014 and 2015 of Finansbank, it seems that achieved by the administration of the National, the general diefthyninti of DGComp Geert Koupman.
Reportedly, the contacts between the two sides was a discussion about the future of bank subsidiaries of the National and the more comprehensive reorganization plan of the bank.
The climate between the two sides, as duly transferred, was positive.
As he wrote earlier NewMoney, consequently, a gradual sale packet Finansnbank seems to slowly finds its way given that the administration of the National because of the deterioration of the data on the Turkish economy and the Turkish stock market, aimed to slow the initial process.
At the same time, expressed optimism that will be completed in the coming months the sale of Astir Vouliagmeni, given that there is serious interest from a number of strong investors. A key criterion for the upcoming sale, is the price which has been much talk since the original assessments were bringing the property lower than the 300 million euros, the National, but the market is considered very low compared to its value.