according to the previous trial, I think the results will be great. I just hope the price will be more than 9 once the good news is out. My hope is 40 (due to short squeeze as it was in the past) if the results are great.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
In June 2010, company entered into a note purchase agreement with Deerfield for 124 million in secured convertible notes. If company didn't amend that the amount into a new 2019 due date agreement, the 124 million would be due today, June 30, 2015.
I agree enabeler. I hope we don't find out but the price action with a statistically significant PPS of 7.5 mths is hard to predict (but I suspect it'll be muted). I would feel even better about our situation if I had not lived through the bad decisions that MMM and EXEL have made.
"Dilution" As Duck said once financial uncertainties are removed to a degree with a positive Meteor it is actually possible that the pps could rise on a money raise as that would enable EXEL to have longer runway. The market most often sees dilution as bad but not always. Postive Meteor and COBI approval gives substantial breathing room. The shorts are going to have a lot tougher time sucking the life out at that point if it comes to be. If not I am afraid we will be toast.
It's baked into my purchase price. I wont' buy above $2.82 but have a (low) price of $3.51 buyout potential after debt if METEOR fails. The price seems to be bouncing around $3.5. First it had a hard time breaking $3.5 and now it's seems to be bouncing off $3.5. But for security sake, I'm sticking to my numbers so I don't get bit too hard if METEOR fails. I'm expecting another swing below $3.5 if they don't report soon.
Of course, you're both assuming METEOR will be successful, which i do too. However, should METEOR fail or not be much better than expected there is a good chance that they will not be able to sell the ex-US rights and then we have to deal with the hedge fund shorties continuing to manipulate the heck out of it until they get their pound of flesh.
The action in the stock lately (despite the 10-15% correction), points to a success, but with EXEL and MMM you can just never be sure until it's sure.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thats my understanding too but I wanted a good grasp of this... in essence, if converted at set price, would add X number of shares to market (250 million worth in this case). Essentially becomes a dilution if I understand this correctly. I would think this is baked into share price though and has impacted demand historically
I just went to the WIKI page a while back but I don't have a solid grasp of it. Those holding the bond can convert them to shares of common stock is my understanding but the borrower may have the option to repurchase them by paying off the loan. So the borrower may only pay interest so when they are successful and are no longer a liability, they effectively pay the loan off in common shares. It can destroy companies if not manage properly.
I admit that I don't have a solid understanding of these things but I'm suspecting that they are waiting for METEOR so they can say that they're no longer a liability and pay the debt which would make Deerfield more comfortable with the conversion to common shares.
The question is if upon successful METEOR, they can raise revenue within the timeline to effectively buy back the bonds.
Can't point you in the direction of an article on the convertible debt However, IMO a successful METEOR is the trigger for convert holders to cover their hedge/arbitrage short positions. Manipulating the PPS can only be effective while EXEL is in financial uncertainty. METEOR provides EXEL with a vehicle to raise cash (exUS partnership) and begin generating real impactful revenues (ie hundreds of millions). In addition to clearing those financial uncertainties, a successful METEOR is only the first catalyst. It will be followed in short order by Cobi approval in August. Also remember, EXEL still has a high institutional ownership, over 60%. Those huge firms are going to want to maximize their returns just as much as the convert holders. The removal of risk with a successful METEOR is the key to seeing the value here unlocked.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Just for a trade on technicals, Social. Nothing more. They daily chart had it way oversold and below the bollinger. The intraday chart had it exhausting down. The ticker was showing haphazard retail shorting. If it stayed down there, a club would have picked it up and run with it. They may still.
The only reason its not total trash is because if you back out all the debt (which is miniscule) and the intangible, its trading at about 3x straight cash with a $8M/qtr burn.