yes but, why is ACOR trading in the 30's?a 1.3B company with the average vol of 600k going for 32.56 today. way over valued then? Again, I have no idea what they do or whats in there pipeline.. $32 is possibly a reflection of future valuation.? EXEL should be trading between 9-12 especially after a positive adcom in november imo
"Cabo has to differentiate itself."
In this regard, do you still carry any expectations that the bone phenom will play into this? Cabo has displayed a considerable repertoire of undeniable short-term therapeutic benefits, many if which have been associated with improved survival. Duration of response issues may still be of concern, but a statsig OS signal in mRCC would clearly put those concerns to rest. Other than the Cabo/ Nivolumab & Cabo/ everolimus combos you've mentioned...are you aware of any combination rationales not yet discussed here? I'm left with the continued impression that the Cabo impact on bone turnover, osteoblastic mets, modifying the bone microenvironment, and possibly delaying onset of SREs might have differentiating value that may only be recognized in a rationalized combination setting. See anything new on that horizon?
I think your being overly optimistic, and I hate to admit...I agree with Seymour...everyone seems to think of share price, market cap is way more important when doing valuations. I think excel could pop a bit from here but unless there is some biochemistry we don't know about I have a hard time seeing excel above 10 in the near future. Conversely when the market cap was 200 million I was (what are ya'll thinking). I am a natural pessimist so please surprise me .... I need a boost in my IRA.
"..do you feel there may be a perception that the space is crowded with TKIs,"
Its more than just perception, there are a lot of TKI's approved for RCC treatment. Sunitinib, Sorafenib. Axitinib, pazopanib, and Lenvatinib now with the B/T designation. Cabo has to differentiate itself. Showing a survival advantage will go a long way a good Meteor PFS will help and Cabosun will be a direct comparison with the perceived best TKI of the group.
"...and that a checkpoint inhibitor is a more advanced technology?...thereby a best bet to succeed? It's more flawed logic, but with sunitinib, sorafenib, axitinib, pazopanib, and now lenvatinib in the the RCC mix..."
Nivo is the new darling of cancer care and it is a great drug. Looking at the huge successes in melanoma and NSCLC it is easy to see why expectations are so high. Nivo will have a better ORR than Cabo. I think Cabo will have a better PFS than Nivo. The OS comparison is the most important efficacy metric and it is IMO up for grabs.
"...how the algorithm will redefine once the dust clears...any thoughts?"
In the near term it will be 1st line Sutent, 2nd line Nivo or Cabo and 3rd/4th line Ever. Eventually we will have to consider Ipi/Nvo and Levatinib/Ever. Those could push Cabo into 3rd/4th line status with Sutent.
Unless I misunderstood enabeler, he is opining that a fair pps in either a buy out or take over for EXEL is $15. He has invited others, even me, to render their own opines. As I said, where I do not know a lot about EXEL and never said I did, I preferred to use a comparison. So, I selected another pharmaceutical company that has a similar market cap as a bench mark for relative value. Anyone buying EXEL probably would be doing the same. So when you go down the list of details in the comparison, I believe its proper to compare $1.3B companies by what they generate in revenue. In this comparison, ACOR has annual revenues of $437M. Although EXEl has substantially less the future is obviously higher than the current numbers. So bottom line is what will EXEL generate? In a apple-to-apples scale, for $15 pps (about 2.5X current pps share of $5.90 and a market cap of $3.3B) EXEL should have annual revenues of $1.45B. I don't think even the most optimistic see that here in even the intermediate future.
"The conventional thinking is that Nivo is superior because its trial ended early at an interim analysis showing statsig survival whereas Cabo so far is only showing statsig PFS, a less rigorous requirement. My opinion is that that line of thought is flawed, but we will see in 24 days..."
Ernie, in addition to your response - do you feel there may be a perception that the space is crowded with TKIs, and that a checkpoint inhibitor is a more advanced technology?...thereby a best bet to succeed? It's more flawed logic, but with sunitinib, sorafenib, axitinib, pazopanib, and now lenvatinib in the the RCC mix...
It makes me wonder how the algorithm will redefine once the dust clears...any thoughts?
I think a buyout is more likely in the long run than going alone. However, from an investment standpoint, growing would be better. If Cabo is as good as they're leading on, it could be worth it. They could buy up an upstart with a developed preclinical program and take it forward while jumpstarting a small research team around it to bring back research.
A buyout would just get you the price paid. With the solid factors in play, the price by my estimate would be $ $21-$33 based on variables that I can predict within a range. It could be higher based on other factors that I did not fold in. One of which is the trial WIlder pointed out today with the cabosun as it was referred too. If Cabo can take first line treatment, it could be a $36-$48 buyout. Those in the know need to be the ones to decide how far to take it before selling if that is their route.
""ESMO ECC more important"
You are certainly aware that the market tends to discount predictable events. Let's look at a bit of history. When Cabo was approved for MTC, it was a less assured event than the Zelboraf/Cobi approval. Yet when the FDA approved Cabo, the stock went down instead of up. It was definitely a buy the rumor, sell the news scenario. I am not predicting that will happen again, but there is little drama surrounding the FDA's decision due Nov 11. Everyone is expecting a rubber stamp approval.
The ECC conference features back to back presentations on Nivo and Cabo, both in 2nd line RCC and both in comparison to an everolimus control. We know that both drugs successfully achieved their primary endpoint. Both companies will file NDA's and both will almost certainly be approved for 2nd line RCC at about the same time. The worldwide 2nd line RCC opportunity is about a billion dollar per year indication. EXEL and BMS will split the lion's share of that billion and how that split falls will be determined by the medical community's perception of which drug has the better data set. The conventional thinking is that Nivo is superior because its trial ended early at an interim analysis showing statsig survival whereas Cabo so far is only showing statsig PFS, a less rigorous requirement. My opinion is that that line of thought is flawed, but we will see in 24 days.
Frankly, I am not sure what ACOR does or doesnt do except for the fact that, it's trading in the 30's currently 32.56. How does it compare to EXEL again?
Interesting. Let's say I learnt some time back that Chinese stocks market is a sham hence stop investing in Chinese companies. Have taken huge hits thanks to them.
"Without question, if EXEL is successful in November both EXEL and shareholders will make a ton of $$$$$$$$$$$."
I look at the ESMO ECC presentations on Sep 26 as a more important catalyst than for share price than the Nov 11 Zelboraf/Cobi PDUFA. The market is anticipating Z/C approval. The market isn't sure at all as to how the Nivo results will compare to the Cabo results in two very similar trials that will influence market share for both drugs.
Looking at the weekly chart (2yrs) now that the RSI has finally settled from bloated status, the chart looks dangerously explosive! I don't know which way but, it will explode. There is a very strong base being build right here too soo, I don't know.
Who cares! As long as EXEL has the momentum to return to double digits, who cares! Besides, who's jpild anyway? Just a MB jockey. As long as the BO rumor is happening on the institutional level instead of the yahoo message board level, again, who cares! Give me 12-14 and I walk!
I prefer buyout, for safety. Whether that is more likely, IDK. I think its a toss up at this point. I am not sure if their current drugs or pipeline is buyout worthy yet.
The better deal long term for EXEL and shareholders is moving forward alone through partnership. Without question, if EXEL is successful in November both EXEL and shareholders will make a ton of $$$$$$$$$$$.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Good point. I will have to review some of the cycles. Then decide. Short term, I generally am all cash just before 9/11. Also, anticipating a major pull back in US oil some time soon, so I would like to be armed and ready for another run on UWTI.