Hey JR -- apology accepted - and likewise my response was over the top.
I like the RGEN play. I see very limited downside and potentially humongous upside - most likely sold upside and I think $20 is not far away - if quarterly numbers continue to show Rev increases. Being an industry leader in this critical biotech process seems huge to me.
I admit (as I did before) that I did not know the loss of royalty revenue would be as significant as it is. That explains to me why valuation is at $12. I could not understand what was holding it down. So, whereas I saw this as a 'ridiculous' buy before, I now see it as a very solid buy but somewhat reasonably priced. But as I said, I see it priced with no growth in the future baked in. If Q numbers show growth - then there is very high upside IMO.
Good luck to all. TGC. (p.s. Buy ARNA).
did see your analysis after posting that comment but couldn't retract it. do appreciate the analysis...do not like people making unsubstantiated claims. it happens a lot on the 3d message boards i frequent...my apologies.
Appreciated your analysis - as Motley Fool mentions the bad news is ROYALTIES OF ABOUT $3.5 M PER Q DROP OFF END OF THIS YEAR - BUT WE WILL ACQUIRE TO MAKE UP FOR THAT SO PROBABLE WASH AND WE GO ONWARD AND UPWARD - but as we wait for the acquisition(s) could see share price backing off a bit but who knows??
JR - grey is one of the few that has provided analysis SO GIVE HIM CREDIT FOR THAT AND MAYBE LOOK AROUND BEFORE "SHUT YOUR TRAP" COMMENT.
Hey EFFF YUUU. I will give you nothing besides the Finger. I have provided analysis on another thread. Do you own DD and make your own decision. I bought more this morning. If you can't understand the $20 valuation then you have no hope. Thank you.
i hate unsubstantiated claims. it's annoying. give me an analysis and argue your point otherwise shut your trap.
would not be surprised to see a little correction.....but wow so stellar the past 8 months or so.....
CC intermediary stage of acquisition (last Q we were at late stages so obviously we did not get what
we wanted and that's over) BUT WAITING WAITING WAITING!!
looks like this company has a strong future and could add additional revenues to a larger more established company (biorad or amgen). With good upside I can't imagine that one of the bigger fish would not swallow this one up in a few quarters or 2yrs max at a nice premium. until then she will only go up! any thoughts?
Unknown Gem with Brutal Upside Potential ...GLTA
2 Big Drugs already under review by FDA another 1 NDA filing for "Best in Class" Potency Drug and 1 ANDA filing for CHF will follow within 6 months .
NDA submission for our anti-migraine VersaFilm(TM) product had been accepted for review, with an FDA-assigned PDUFA date of February 3, 2014.
(According to Merck's most recent annual report, sales of Maxalt(R) were $638 million in 2012.)
IntelGenx Announces Submission of ANDA for Buprenorphine/Naloxone Sublingual Film Product for the Treatment of Opiate Addiction
(According to IMS Health, U.S. retail sales of Suboxone(R) Sublingual Film were approximately $1.5 billion in 2012.)
Only 20 M on the float ..IGXT has the Potential to hit $10++ within 2 Year ! GLTA
Market Cap : $27 M
Cash: $3 M
Burn-Rate : $2 M a year
Shares Out : 51 M ( 30 M shares are held by Investors )
IGXT´s Monster Pipeline :
Product ......Application......... Status of Development
INT0004/2006 Antidepressant -- US launch in 4Q 2012
INT0008/2007 Migraine -- PDUFA Date on Feb 3 2014
INT0007/2006 Erectile Dysfunction -- NDA filing lin early 2014
INT0001/2004 CHF (Coronary Heart Failure), Hypertension -- ANDA filing in early 2014
INT0027/2011 Undisclosed Partnered with Par Pharma -- ANDA under review by FDA
INT0020/2010 Insomnia -- in Pivotal Study
INT0024/2010 Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis -- in Pivotal Study
INT0028/2011 Cancer pain (cannabinoid) --in Pivotal Study
INT0030/2011 Animal health -- in Pivotal Study
INT0031/2012 Benign prostatic hyperplasia --in Pivotal Study
and even mentioning RGEN in the same breath as Amgen and GE should garner some interest.
How about another double in 2014 and we get to $20 with a really great acquisition that makes up for Orencia
royalties......onward and upward.
This article could not be any more optimistic / forward looking / showing potential just great.
But v good technologies are always very pricy and I don't think they have yet made enough reserves to go for a big purchase.
I am a long but don't think 20 is achievable with current earning projection. If there is a very good acquisition then yes it is possible. They most certainly are constantly looking for great additions to their portfolio
Hi Quant --
No it does not. I do not pretend to know Repligen's business very well at all. I am no expert. So, you seem to know a lot more than I do. I am just encouraged by their core business. Let's see how earnings look next week. Should be fun. I think we are on a 'free roll' (we can win but we can't lose). Well maybe not quite that good - but pretty close IMO. TGC.
This was not my post at 1:32 must have been grey - agree holding a $10 / $20 / $100 are milestones and like that analysis by grey (THANKS) - as far a unforeseen reason for a drop possibly if 1032 or other fda bad news we drop a buck or so BUT MORE UP WHEN WE SEE USE OF CASH TO ACQUIRE.
Quant - you had asked about my rationale for $20 price target based on continued good/excellent earnings. This thread contains that post. I believe if earnings are in line with 2Q, then $20 is a very realistic target. TGC.
remember your analysis a few months ago to substantiate the $20 share price - what was it?