Hey JR -- apology accepted - and likewise my response was over the top.
I like the RGEN play. I see very limited downside and potentially humongous upside - most likely sold upside and I think $20 is not far away - if quarterly numbers continue to show Rev increases. Being an industry leader in this critical biotech process seems huge to me.
I admit (as I did before) that I did not know the loss of royalty revenue would be as significant as it is. That explains to me why valuation is at $12. I could not understand what was holding it down. So, whereas I saw this as a 'ridiculous' buy before, I now see it as a very solid buy but somewhat reasonably priced. But as I said, I see it priced with no growth in the future baked in. If Q numbers show growth - then there is very high upside IMO.
Good luck to all. TGC. (p.s. Buy ARNA).
This should be interesting - we are getting the bull / bear - short / long opinions = stocks go up and down and RGEN has had such a strong run imagine it is ready for a pullback BUT the way its been acting it will not be a long one. Can't wait to see what we acquire - very exciting.
The recent uptick in volume is not related to retailers. Some big funds have initiated positions. The pullback yesterday is a healthy one. We never expected it to continue north without stops. Increased demand for their products is almost a certainty. The management is one of the best you can get. They are very focused and I am hoping that they find another small but critical acquisition very soon. Those who have entered recently can rest assured that unlike other small bio techs which can be affected by tapering/macro issues RGEN should be a relatively safe bet into short and long term investment.
This Low Float Rocket will hit $6++ before FDA decision on October 17 ...PSDV will move into double digits easily with FDA approval for Blockbuster Candidate Iluven .There is NO FDA approved drugs for DME (Diabetic Macular Edema) .
Upon US approval of Iluvien, pSivida would be entitled to receive a $25 million milestone payment from Alimera and 20 percent of net profits, as defined, on sales of the drug by Alimera.
DME is a potentially blinding disease that affects over one million people in the United States. Currently there are no FDA approved drugs for the treatment of DME.The U.S. market for DME is $1.5 billion to $4 billion.
Pfizer is third largest Shareholder of PSDV holding 1.9 M Shares . PSDV is very close to profitability .
Market Cap: $86 M
Cash: $24 M
Shares Out: 26.8 M ( 10.4 M shares held by Insiders & Institutions)
“We are very pleased that the FDA has accepted Alimera Sciences’ recently resubmitted New Drug Application for ILUVIEN® for chronic Diabetic Macular Edema (DME) and has set a PDUFA target date of October 17, 2013." Upon US approval of Iluvien, pSivida would be entitled to receive a $25 million milestone payment from Alimera and 20 percent of net profits, as defined, on sales of the drug by Alimera.
The injectable, sustained release micro-insert ILUVIEN® for the treatment of chronic DME considered insufficiently responsive to available therapies, licensed to Alimera Sciences, Inc., has received marketing authorization in Austria, France, Germany, Portugal, Spain and the U.K. and is awaiting authorization in Italy.
where from here.....does the market decline and most stocks lose 10-15%??
Can we make it to $12 by year end?
Do we make another successful acquisition?
Everything is in place for another double in 2 years!
RGEN looking good today.
I am just speculating but it could be that early 3rd Q numbers are available internally. I hope that's the case and that trend will be up during October before 3Q numbers are officially available. Pure speculation on my part. TGC.
This stock seems to be a bargain. EPS is around $0.18 this quarter, as sales are growing 10-15% a year EPS should grow by a large amount, I cannot quantify it but doubling year over year is possible, this without taking into account new products. Finally they have around $70 million in cash. Comments are welcome. Insults are not.
I am not an investment advisor nor I am giving investment adivise. The following was my thinking that went into buying rgen:
$ Rgen produces consumables for the pharma/biotech industries, therefore huge pool of potential
$ Rgen will loose BMY biz at end of 2013, however already signed up Pfizer
$ Rgen is expanding manufacturing capability, so management expects brisk biz AFTER loss of BMY biz
$ Rgen IMHO is a potential takeover target:
*Rgen produces consumables for pharma/biotech industries
*PFE now an Rgen biz partner---big pharma. If PFE shows interest, I expect others also, so bidding war
*GE already an Ren biz partner, and GE has medical equipment division
*Rgen has low debt
$ Rgen management seems to be aware of company and market conditions and is prudently
Stock price may readjust downwards (definitely from a higher price than Friday's closing price) after loss of BMY biz and PFE deal will not provide results in time to counter stock downturn. However, I share Rgen management's prudent optimism about the company's future..
Sentiment: Strong Buy
There may be a slow slide down but I do not know why that would happen. RGEN is in an eviable position. Highly profitable, absolutely no debt, $70 million in the bank at the end of the year and increasing sales.
As far as aquistions, that may not be for years. RGEN is not going to look at a donkey and try to call it a racehorse. Unless the aquistion is a no brainer I suspect RGEN will add to their money in the bank until something good comes along. By the way, RGEN might have over $100 million in the bank at the end of 2014.
Anyway, most of us have been here a long time. We are used to waiting.
Always get a little anxious as months go by and agree they are waiting for the right deal / right matching market or ancillary / so we wait. Love the reminder of how safe we are as a stock - we are ROCK SOLID with CASH and opportunity ahead - management is stellar!
Hope your wrong and we can find a GREAT DEAL / GREAT LEVERAGE NOW NOW NOW! ha!
"we have a very active M&A and want to grow faster than organic growth allows" obviously Wlat want to use cash and they are going after it! That's enough for me and very encouraging. Also mentioned in 3 years we could be at a juncture to be acquired "pre-consolidation."
doesn't get much better.....sort of waiting for 1068 status / if that does not work we could see a (no reason) a standard procedure loss of a buck on the news = buying opportunity!