Craig, Most normal Americans hope for a better economy. However, as is well said, "Hope is not a method." Investing on the basis of hope is fools play. Writing propaganda on yahoo mbs may make you feel better, but surely influences no one, especially investors. Help us all by posting useful info on topic. Best of luck investing.
It will still be around 500 billion and any growth is more than you morons forecast a few months ago when you were all giddy over the prospect of a recession.
When the GDP was down in the first quarter you tea party morons couldn't wait to say a recession has begun. Now that it's looks better you deny the legitimacy of the numbers. You have no intellectual coherence. All you do is state erroneous conclusions with no ability to analyze at all. And it's not that Obama is so great it's that you guys are soooooooooooooooo dumb.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is conducting a pilot program for a few firms that do not meet the capital minimum requirement for primary dealers to act as counterparties in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) operations it conducts for the System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio. The New York Fed’s intent in conducting this pilot program is to explore ways to broaden access to open market operations, and to determine the extent to which firms beyond the Primary Dealer community can augment the New York Fed’s operational capacity and resiliency in its monetary policy operations. -aug5th
followed by (aug 25th)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is extending the deadline for expression of interest in participation in its Mortgage Operations Counterparty Pilot program from August 22 to September 5, 2014. All other terms of the program, including the deadline to submit Request for Information materials by September 30, 2014, remain the same
quality banks are located in the field of flying unicorns. In other words, a bit of an oxymoron, no? Banks are resilient in the face of epic curve flattening just because everyone is buying everything.. and those are "bullish on banks" and saying "interest rates will rise, good for banks" while referring to the 10yr note.. they're either stupid or lying..
It's a bit of horseshit.. and you eagerly eat it up with two spoons. GDP random number generator. You're the obama fan right? Are you ever going to get tired of calling anyone who disagrees with you a tea-party? I can't believe you're real. You can't be this dumb. It must be that "for skin" being all stuk round ur neck.
CMBS being both reliable and higher yielding than TBA is a bit of a paradox. I suppose you could find a couple esoteric issues that are _subjectively_ both.. but has insane liquidity risk..There are so many different flavors of CMBS.. Any legacy stuff that is still non-performing.. probably will stay that way.. any "reperforming" legacy has already had all of the 'juice' taken out. Then there's stuff backed by a commercial property that is currently performing.. and performing well (100% leased, good history of payments etc). but have JCP or shaky tenants (anything retail IMO).
Plus there is a bunch of muppety-money-managers chasing stuff just because they have clients money. All that said, Western Asset is very good at picking thru the garbage heap (see DMO's performance).
I hear you, but even a small decline in BV will be an outlier among mREITs, and I'm not as optimistic about earnings or the div being raised. I like WMC but the stock does get ahead of intrinsic value now and then. I actually don't think that hard about yield when I'm buying REITs but risk per unit of dividend. If you sold 25,000 shares of WMC at $15.20 and bought 52,000 shares of CYS at $9.43, you get about the same cash flow at the ex date, but I believe you have less risk in the CYS position at below 90% of BV than you have in the WMC position at close to 100% of BV despite having an extra $110K in the CYS position. Just my view of the world.
Considering the DOW is up 15%, NASDAQ up 28% and the S&P is up 23% in the last 12 months, the 8.6% annual return (including dividends) for WMC is pretty pathetic.
I would fire my investment advisor if I were you Gomer.
Your industry seasoning disciplines you to key off of BV, but the retail crowd does not observe a hard rule about that metric. For example, ORC and OAKS were recently trading over BV for their high yield, and their yield was less than WMC. With WMC in an earnings uptrend, and with the yield yet so high, it's apt to go higher.
When you sell WMC, then if staying in mREITs, you have to buy others that are also trading near BV, but with lower yield, and typically managements that are not as deep as WMC. As explained above, I plan to stay with WMC till its yield is closer to the other MREITs.
What's going to be interesting is the approaching Fall market selloff season. I expect that the feeble economy, and warnings about substantially higher health insurance premiums, and more conversions of full time to low wage part time, plus the ECC and Japan receding, are going to motivate a market crash. The mREITs will get hit too, but earnings and dividends ought to be good while the Fed is forced to maintain ZIRP.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
hate to be the contrarian, but WMC is approaching my est of BV--time to sell and rotate to another name at a discount to 10+% discount to BV.
both work and I hope the sector is rolling along again moving forward
and probably lots of value in wmc if they can show a little more consistency in earnings - more predictability and that yield disparity should get hammered out by much higher stock price (bringing the yield down closer to peers)
are sustainable, or even likely to grow as equity is shifted from financing TBA trading to more reliable, higher yielding CMBS. The current 67 cent qtr divi ought to go higher by the end of this year, with, let's say 75 cents an easy target. With an annual divi of $3, and a very high yield of 15%, the stock would be trading at $20, or about a 25% cap gain from here. Add in the divi, and that's a total return over the next year of over 40%.
Buy and hold now appears a better profit making strategy than day trading, but to each his own.
Sentiment: Strong Buy