All you have to do is look at the cheap market cap compared to the cash flow and growth and revenues that this company has (even with the disappointing earnings last week) and you will realize that this stock could double or triple in couple of years
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think I'd just let the building crumble in on itself. Mr. Beer is hoping for the PCSK9 inhibitors to raise awareness for HoF and thus increase eligible patients for juxta. The ratio of patients leaving juxta for the PCSK9 inhibitors to those going on juxta will be 5:1 going away from juxta. Only the really worst patients with absolutely no LDL receptors will not at least to a certain degree be helped by the PCSK9 inhibitors. The price advantage too will dictate that insurance carriers will make you show that the patient failed on a PCSK9 inhibitor first. Also, there has never been any release of the average dose of juxta used in any of the patients. Pharm reps will tell you that most patients are on 5 or 10 mg and that's all they need. I think the real truth is that patients have a hard time taking anything higher than that. That may be part of why Mr. Beer about six months ago made the data much more cryptic in regards to giving out information on juxta. t
I think the situation is even more dire. Patients are not all staying on the drug, and the labelled population is small, and Sanofi will soon be able toenter this entire market with their mipomersen and PCSK9. They have substantial muscle and then the advantage of being able to offer the "right" drug for either HeFH or HoFH. Without a pipeline etc what is the upside ? JMO
Juxtapid has not translated into the commercial success that was advertised.; attempts at expanding the label or talking up the drug have been met by a FDA warning letter and a DoJ investigation. Beer lies - the statement that PCSK9 will help AEGR is grand delusion at best - in earlier statements he clamored that a small sales force could cover the physicians who treat this orphan indication. Isis has also been at work engaging this orphan indication – who is left that has not heard the story? First time that I have heard that a competitor with superior product entering a small market will be good the competition.
Drop-out rates clearly surprised the Company and me. Again Beer misstatements that these patients have no alternatives, yet 34% of them opt out because of the well known side effects of the drugs. DO they prefer to be sick rather than be treated by Juxtapid. Stock has collapsed, though cash position remains strong – but is it enough to buy something else? doubt it.
Add the noise around Beer’s reputation – and the stench coming of AEGR is enough to turn my stomach. Still stock will be volatile in the months to come and should present opportunities for small gains but no long -term hold. Just pinch your nose when doing it.
There is a notion of a fair valuation based on current sales, if one ignores the static and distraction round the CEO. I suspect the market is valuing "realistic sales." Moreover, one can assume there is some premium based on two not unlikely "rescue" scenarios- Board decides to find a new CEO and end the tumult as well as dealing with poor execution, or the company is taken out. So agree a short is risky here at these levels.
Here it is: Am not sure that there is a lot there...
We are also aware that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has issued a request for information to our specialty pharmacy and to an independent 501(c)(3) entity to which we provided financial support for use by the entity in assisting eligible HoFH patients in accessing treatments. The requests generally seek documents related to interactions between us and the entity with respect to lomitapide, and, in the case of the 501(c)(3) entity, assistance offered by the 501(c)(3) entity to lomitapide patients. We expect to receive a request for documents from the SEC in the near future. During the first three quarters of 2013, we recorded $300,000 of payments received from the 501(c)(3) entity on behalf of lomitapide patients as revenue, based on our evaluation of and consultations regarding the applicable accounting guidance. Upon further review of the applicable accounting guidance and additional consultations, we concluded in the fourth quarter of 2013 that such amounts should be recorded as a reduction to selling, general and administrative expenses rather than as revenue. We concluded that the amounts previously recorded as revenue during the first three quarters of 2013 were immaterial to our financial statements. We intend to fully cooperate with the government’s inquiry into this matter.
Sounds like they're giving money to the nonprofit and then getting money back as revenue from the same nonprofit.
Wonder why the BoD is not acting the way it should. The hits will #$%$e until a new leadership can restore confidence and integrity to the positons of CEO and CFO.
this is a long shot idea, but at high doses how quickly could AEGR's drug lower cholersterol levels to nil? the answer has to be days or it's out of consideration.
Its beginning to seem like deja vu all over again like the optimistic (but apparently unrealistic) numbers of HoFH patients estimated by AEGR.
AEGR estimates the prevalence of generalized lipodystrophy at 1 in a million. That translates to about 7,000 patients worldwide. I read an article from that estimates the prevalence of treatable patients as 300-500 worldwide which is a prevalence of about 1 in 18 million. That's more in line with AEGR's estimate of peak revenues of $200 million which would be about 600 treated patients at the $300K+ annual price they mentioned. That would put the number of US patients at about 20. Based on this annual US revenues for myalept at $6 million at best. Dropout rate seems to be between 14-24% so it could be lower.
Please show me where I'm wrong.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I agree, but I would be careful in regards to shorting this. All it would take would be for an announcement like SNY is going to buy them out and you could see a quick five points to the upside. t
To suggest this was "way over done"
means you haven't read the release.
It couldn't have been any worse.
I'm not suggesting these shares won't recover.
But it will take time.
and of course the burden is squarely on AEGR. They must start producing real results,
which means a good of time will pass before t he resurrection begins.
and the CEO must leave
Drug has a small market, likely needs another study for EMA and there is a story of "market expansion." Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. JMO