So, like much of biotech, it appears like market manipulation seems to be a big theme here. Some think AEGR was purposefully manipulated down to allow shorts to cover, but that the value of the stock is far above its current price of 56/share. Others who presumably are pure shorts on this thing think the stock was over-valued and that the price came down as a proper correction. I'm not to this name, so I'm hoping to hear some intelligent opinions as to what is the current state of this thing. From my DD, it appears that the street and published equity research supports ALL support that this thing is a buy, and that the PT provides upside value regardless of what source/analyst you look at. I guess I'm never a believer in a "sure bet" and like to hear what others think. I appreciate all responses- and lets try to stay away from the thumbs up/down bs and try to all learn here from both sides.
His job as CEO is to protect the company from this sort of nonsense so his employees can focus on their product and marketing. If the shareholders can get the board to throw him out, maybe they can get someone new in who can salvage this mess.
At least they met/exceeded earnings in their latest report. It seems to me they just need a decent CEO to stop breaking marketing laws.
Crawl back to freaking Moldova ,Azerbaijan, or what ever rat hole,country you came from. You know about as much as the US Constitution as you know about biotech investing. You are one dumb sucker for believing Beers.
Im surprised to see this stock is not as busy as some other names I follow considering there is a lot of potential upside here, in addition to material news coming out of late regarding the DOJ investigation and its potential impact on AEGR's profitability this year. Anyone concerned, or do you think it will be a short term hiccup and the price targets out there ranging from 75-100/share with be realized at some point?
yeah I'm not a quick moves investor so I got in assuming there could be a little more downside before it turns around--- however its hard to think your going to lose money at current levels when 10 analysts have the thing as a buy/strong buy with the lowest pt being 75/share. I'm holding- just surprised at the lack of buzz surrounding this thing considering the upside potential that is largely undisputed on the street.
ISIS' Kynamro, ongoing anti-PCSK9 trials, gastrointestinal problems & fatty liver disease dropouts, statin interaction, exclusion of those under 18 yrs old, high cost, etc... will carve up AEGR's very very small pie into a very small slice. Note that besides the threat of anti-PCSK9 approval, the anti-PCSK TRIALS alone threaten AEGR market share ... and AMGN is recruiting as we speak.
could be more than 300 total US HoFH patients, but the number will be closer to 300 than 3,000. Subtract out the competition, drug interactions, and those who cannot tolerate Juxtapid and we'll find that AEGR's actual share is pretty small.
What are the estimates worldwide for HoFH patients ? Where are they expanding to ? I think I've heard Asia and Japan in particular, but where else ? Thank you for the data, now I'm wondering why have analysts rated it as a buy and with a higher price target, when the stock looks to be overvalued ? What's pushing the analysts to give favorable targets for the stock ?
Don't try and explain why you do things when you are accusing me of inside information and going to turn me in??? I don't in the least feel too bad about that. And your screaming buy rec when you are doing exactly the opposite?! Now that also sounds like the present CEO. t
All invented. Compliance to lomitapide is generally excellent. There is no such article on a recent NEJM. ISIS has not released any such data indicating the fatty liver goes back to normal!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
There is no such thing as an unbiased view, but everybody will give you their opinion nonetheless. The stock is going down because of a perceived change in the fundamentals. The next quarterly results will set the tone going forward. The main change is that initially the company gave specifics on how many patients were on treatment and now they no longer do that (they cautioned from the beginning that they would only do that in the beginning, so it was pre-planned & pre-announced that way - but it was still a change in the granularity of the information released). So people are uncertain as to the true growth in revenues.
There is one guy here who lost his life savings shorting the stock who keeps whining about how there is only 1 in a million cases of HoFH but that is statistically speaking and based on grossly outdated information (well discredited long ago). The number of patients diagnosed with HoFH is what AEGR is using as their baseline number of 15,000 worldwide and 3,000 in the USA. However, it doesn't mean that all of them will buy the medication. Despite what the one short-loser harps on, who pretends nobody can afford it, people DO have insurance and it IS covering it, so the real question is to see how that pans out for the longer term.
If you watch the options numbers there is a very strong speculation that next quarters numbers will be very high, but that easily could be people who sold the stock and bought the option to minimize their downside while still keeping open the upside. Downward pressure is also coming from those (like me) who took profits to lock them in before year end. Nothing particularly wrong with the company or stock but there is substantial uncertainty in the overall market and that warrants prudent steps which includes locking in stellar profits. I'm one of those who locked in profits and will be buying more shortly, though I want to see the new numbers next quarter. I want to see the growth continue.
Happy New Year Yugo, here's some info for you to digest in regards to liver risks for the pediatric patients that your CEO is trying to recruit:
Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis is the most rapidly growing indication for liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in the U.S
Hepatology, 12/31/2013 Clinical Article
Wong RJ, et al. – Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is currently the third leading indication for liver transplantation (LT) in the U.S. and is predicted to become the leading indication for LT in the near future. The trends in NASH–related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among LT recipients in the U.S. remain undefined. The authors performed a retrospective cohort study to evaluate trends in the etiology of HCC among adult LT recipients in the U.S. from 2002 to 2012, utilizing national data from the United Network for Organ Sharing registry. NASH is the second leading etiology of HCC leading to LT in the U.S. More importantly, NASH is currently the most rapidly growing indication for LT in patients with HCC in the U.S.
Believe me, that's not why the FDA brought in the DOJ and perhaps FBI. It's got to be worse than that. Kickbacks for one, imo.
The real issue, not the reimbursement issue like Yugo wants to keep talking about is cash flow in vs. Mr. Beer's lofty goals of trying to dredge up more people to take the drug. He is going to keep on studying "the issue" and he is going to "study" the pediatric issue all the while trying to set up a pediatric trial and expand his COMPASS group while the company is losing money and time. He did an anctedotal study of other CEO's and he claims they told him that they regretted expanding faster and thus based on that "wisdom" he goes forth. He elevated investors expectations and he actually sicced the FDA on himself. He is a total mess and his perceptions and sense of responsibility are totally off. The DB analyst who recommended the 115 target is the same person who interviewed him for that last Dec3rd interview. The one where he brought up the pediatric population first and then said "we at AEGR" don't talk about it........ But HE DID. t