Won't give any kind of guidance, expenses will soar, lanenting they didn't go after cardio docs from day one and pretty much said getting butt kicked with cardio docs.
Thanks for calling me an idiot. Will try and repay you:
Listened to the AEGR CC. I think they are going to be back peddling:
1)After a nice introduction and the moderator was going to ask a second question Mr. Beer himself brings up the pediatric indication goal. He notes that they are now in the process of trying to see how many potential pediatric patients there are out there. He noted that they don't talk about it because juxta is only indicated for adults.....then why bring it up without a question from the moderator? According to him AEGR is in the process of studying the pediatric potential and he noted that they were re-doing another adult study to check for ?further potential?. Another study in the adults looking to pick up patients with another study that they are paying for from an outsider agency?
2)Prior to that he noted that if the company felt ?comfortable? at the JPM conference they would talk about 2014 guidance. But he had to wait and see. He was very cryptic.
3)He noted that originally AEGR had hired 25 sales reps for the US and shortly thereafter hired another 12. He wouldn't divulge the amount of pharm reps they have now in the US because, "we are in a competitive environment in the US."
4)He also noted, like what I had thought of at first, but MF seemed to go the opposite on and that was approaching of the sales to different physicians. Mr. Beer noted that maybe AEGR should have hit cardiologists first rather than lipidologists. He noted that they were trying to catch up. He further noted that lipidologists see about 10 patients a week, and cardiologists about 35 patients a day. He explained that what they discovered was that cardiologists usually managed their own patients lipid-wise unless or until those patients had to go on apheresis and then they would turn them over to lipidologists. With about a ratio of 50:1 cardiologists to lipidologists that is huge potential number out there uncommitted. And he admitted that they felt some frustration in regards to not being able to get to as many cardiologists as they had wanted to.
5)He noted that they have what they call a COMPASS program. This division/program only tries to get patients covered for their meds. They originally had four, then eight, they expect to have 20 by year end and 40 by next year's end. When the moderator ask if that could be meant to show the rapid growth of the company as far as patient expansion he noted no, that he wanted to show the expense side of the business.
6)He noted that when he talked to other orphan biotech companies the thing that they all told him was that they expanded too late and they if they had the chance to do it over again they would have expanded earlier and so that is what AEGR is in the process of doing.
7)He mentioned all of the places that they were expanding to including Japan, Mexico, Brazil. They are getting up their sales force in all of these countries and they are doing "direct market research" in all of these countries. He noted over 89 countries.....that's about on rep for each country isn't it?
8) He sounded very subdued IMO, he noted that they were not going to give out numbers any more, just revenues, and that they may not give out Q4 numbers or estimates......due to ?seasonal factors? The fourth quarter is always the hardest to get numbers for according to him. He stated that the company didn't understand seasonal factors and it may relate to someone wanting to wait until after the holidays before embarking on the diet and meds.
9)I get the impression he is trying to buy time and that things aren't going as well for them as people think. He is hoping for data on peds patients so he can tell investors that they have X amount of potentially more patients to be able to get on the drug. He really hemmed and hawed when the moderator ask for Q4 data and if it would show continued growth along the same growth curve as previously. From an expense stand point they have one sixth of their company employee-wise being used for the COMPASS program to get insurance coverage for their patients. They are supposed to be expanding into all of these countries. They are doing pediatric studies trying to find out how many patients they can potentially get to the potty, they are restudying the ?adult populations? And they intend to start clinical trials in peds patients in 2014. That is all fine and good, but when you are already losing money...how many new patients will you have to bring on scale-wise to get earnings with all of those goals and you already are not making money. The first rule in business is follow the money. The first sign of someone not telling the truth IMO is poor eye contact, second sign is constantly clearing your throat....Mr. Beer cleared his throat about 15 times in 34 minutes at points in the conversation where he had to get his gumption up. And just wait until you try and get an eight year old on a pill that makes you go like that. t
There is really no need for anyone to debate yassen's fairy tale analysis of this stock. AEGR's share price is telling the real story.
VERY good point. I'm glad you brought that up. It was $20 at the beginning of the year, and it is $66 now. So more than TRIPLE.
Do you think this stuff through, or just spout it cluelessly?
Before year end. Always interesting to see the price pushed down on tiny volume. Then spike back up to much higher prices when the real buying returns.
It's really more like DB, and others are trying to get their clients out in an orderly fashion. t
I do not own any stock in AEGR but came across it while editing a journal review and started looking into the company and analysts' opinion. I see there seems to be people who obviously own the stock and repping it up and others who most likely don't and are doing the opposite, but I wanted an unbiased view regardless of what you want the stock to do. Why is the stock going down even with no news on the front and the majority of analysts suggesting a buy with a much higher target price. What is the info that I'm missing here as this must mean some sort of sell off is happening, but why? This is obviously a very volatile stock as many biomedical firms are, but what are the red flags for this company? Thank you.
There are no red flags in my opinion. They have a difficult product to market, but the disease they are treating is not that rare and the drug is finally moving outside of the US. I find it reasonable that after such a spectacular rise, the stock price may sort of rest, but the indicated target price still makes sense.
I would wonder how that second tranche of 100K that he put in is doing, or was he BSing? More pain I fear as the company is going into 89 or more countries for their adult indication, they are studying and re-studying the adult possible numbers, they are studying potenatial market for pediatric patients. The peds patients will give you a much lower return. First off, you will have to really have a much longer test study for them than the flimsy clincal that they had for adults. You also will much bigger dangers putting children on a med like this for life. So at the same time you are trying to do all of this by yourself you're going to have shareholders demanding to see profits. On top of that in 2015 the actual med itself goes off patent so what you have left is the dosing schedule as your patent......I don't think this will hold. This stock could do an AMRN, we'll see. t
You morons don't realize that nobody listens to your ranting about how much you lost shorting AEGR and we don't care about your whining about losing your retirement savings on the short (which isn't possible since you can't short in a retirement account, but whatever).
All you do is make people stop coming to the Yahoo board.
He heard it when he shoved his head up his butt and farted. He hallucinates like this from time to time. Sometimes he thinks he is a prophet. Sometimes he thinks he is a short seller. Sometimes he thinks he is a savior for the longs. Sometimes he doesn't even know his own name.
And that you lost a fortune. And by a fortune, you lost $10K while I made more than a million bucks.
They stop coming to the Yahoo board because of people like you with name calling and making up things that other people said, e.g. no one has said a word about insider selling except YOU. No one really thinks it is significant to comment about except YOU. You have nothing else to grasp onto so you say or speak for people with your own little made up self-righteous corrections. And if they leave this board it is because YOU don't want to hear the other side, and YOU have given bad advice ever since the stock went above 69. t