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Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AEGR) Message Board

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  • Reply to

    Drop outs

    by rickyriccardo Nov 4, 2014 8:15 AM

    Did you listen to the CC? Can't waste my time on this, wish you the very best luck!! t

  • Reply to

    Drop outs

    by rickyriccardo Nov 4, 2014 8:15 AM

    Was this the equivalent of a lover on the rebound? Now the company has little cash left and a new drug launch to do. The side-effects are even scarier than juxta. And can you say, shelf offering?

  • "subject to an existing distributor license with Shionogi covering Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan"

    I wonder why no mention of Brazil?

  • Reply to

    Drop outs

    by rickyriccardo Nov 4, 2014 8:15 AM

    You are incorrect

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Drop outs

    by rickyriccardo Nov 4, 2014 8:15 AM

    I would urge you to listen to the CC. Your number(s) are incorrect. In any case your company has bought another drug from AZN for $325 million so maybe expect another shelf offering of stock. t

  • Reply to

    Drop outs

    by rickyriccardo Nov 4, 2014 8:15 AM

    I have no idea of mr Beer's behaviour. He is certainly not much help to the company! I confirm that dropouts due to side effects are not higher than those I see with statins, ie around 20%, certainly less than predicted. I have checked this with the company. Insurance in my view is a bigger problem (I lost one because of it)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Drop outs

    by rickyriccardo Nov 4, 2014 8:15 AM

    That is a good idea, something like those diet food companies. That would only be about $350 month for each patient which isn't too much considering the price of the med. But IMO that still wouldn't work. And the other issue that no one wants to talk about is the liver enzyme elevations. Part of why Mr. Beer changed the way they reported the data is so that people couldn't see how much drug people were on in regards to dosing. Most of them were on much lower doses than what the average person was in their study. So it becomes push-me pull-me. You raise the dose and the liver enzymes go up. You lower the dose after holding the drug and the liver enzymes go down, but your LDL goes up. I suspect, like Metformin, once you hit a certain dose no matter what you do you get diarrhea. Problem is then the drug does not match its study's rate of efficacy and you lose cost-effectiveness. The drug has been out as long as the competitor and I wonder where the CV risk reduction is. The competitor reported an eight fold reduction during the time frame since release in CV events. With an average of 5 to 10mg being used I doubt that juxta will be able to match those results. t

  • Reply to

    Drop outs

    by rickyriccardo Nov 4, 2014 8:15 AM

    You are losing credibility. The insurance rates were not added into the drop out rates. The drop out rates are the drop out rates. If you listen to the CC JS the analyst who loved the stock really took Mr. Beer out to the wood shed and let him have it in regards to to what Mr. Beer promised. He said that if the drop out rate exceeded 20% he was going to take so and so out in back and shoot him.....not a good thing for Mr. Beer to say previously in just kidding based on what is going on about him at this time. But in any case you are not facing reality. They only had 23 patients complete a study from which they obtained a lot of bravado. Those patients were watched like a hawk. Their diet and oral med intake watched under almost Putin conditions. In the real world.....and this where Mr. Beer has a distinct weakness as he is not a practicing physician so he wouldn't really know how people are in general in regards to adherence to diabetic diets, CHF diets etc. Despite their throwing a tremendous amount of resources.....limited ones I might add, with their increased nurses to monitor everything they couldn't approach their study results in the real world. A phenomena that is often seen after a drug gets approved. Mr. Beer's head is going to be spinning. He is almost a National Enquirer superstar. He has possibly depositions coming in the divorce case because once you are mentioned lawyers can do anything and they could be calling him in for depositions. He has first generation lawsuits from the first time there was a big drop. He has now second generation lawsuits from the second drop....I've never seen that before. He has Brazil problems, and I suspect there will be further bribing problems in other places around the world. He will have BOD problems. Glad I'm not him. t

  • Reply to

    yes!!! $21

    by kooradut Nov 3, 2014 1:23 PM

    lol- so the company fixed reimbursement issues with brazil in one week? Or are we getting over your head now in talking about this topic....

  • Look at ESYS, trading at $9ish and boom, they get bought out for close to double the price

    Similarly, AGER may trade in this $21-23 range, and then boom one day, $45 buyout news will hit I really feel

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • There is a notion of a fair valuation based on current sales, if one ignores the static and distraction round the CEO. I suspect the market is valuing "realistic sales." Moreover, one can assume there is some premium based on two not unlikely "rescue" scenarios- Board decides to find a new CEO and end the tumult as well as dealing with poor execution, or the company is taken out. So agree a short is risky here at these levels.

  • Reply to

    Drop outs

    by rickyriccardo Nov 4, 2014 8:15 AM

    Thanks. Coverage seems like its going to a big problem for a long time.

  • Juxtapid has not translated into the commercial success that was advertised.; attempts at expanding the label or talking up the drug have been met by a FDA warning letter and a DoJ investigation. Beer lies - the statement that PCSK9 will help AEGR is grand delusion at best - in earlier statements he clamored that a small sales force could cover the physicians who treat this orphan indication. Isis has also been at work engaging this orphan indication – who is left that has not heard the story? First time that I have heard that a competitor with superior product entering a small market will be good the competition.

    Drop-out rates clearly surprised the Company and me. Again Beer misstatements that these patients have no alternatives, yet 34% of them opt out because of the well known side effects of the drugs. DO they prefer to be sick rather than be treated by Juxtapid. Stock has collapsed, though cash position remains strong – but is it enough to buy something else? doubt it.

    Add the noise around Beer’s reputation – and the stench coming of AEGR is enough to turn my stomach. Still stock will be volatile in the months to come and should present opportunities for small gains but no long -term hold. Just pinch your nose when doing it.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Drop outs

    by rickyriccardo Nov 4, 2014 8:15 AM

    Patient dropout is around 20% at one year (i.e. similar to statins). Insurance dropout, unfortunately, adds another 15%.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Loosing here with AEGR...get your money back with ACAD. A new one of a kind, first in its class drug will be the only indicated drug for Parkinson's Disease Psychosis (PDP). 1,000,000 cases of PD in the USA only and 40% will get PDP. It could get off label treatment for Alzheimer's & Schizophrenia too (on going research) . Web cast Nov 10. It is a major buy out target too. Thank me later.

  • Did anyone understand the explanation they gave for the increase in the drop out rate? It seems like they're putting a lot of effort into patient/physician education and it isn't working very well. They should include a year's supply of low fat meals to new patients to try to get the drop out rate down.

  • buyout is definitely possible. One morning we may wake up and see a buyout if you ask my opinion

    who doesn't like a huge huge bargain? Big pharma would love a huge bargain and discount too, more bang for their buck.

    Come on big pharma, time to buyout AEGR is NOW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Maybe the company is getting past exec news and focusing on the business..

  • after reading the news , i think they stand a better chance making viagra like thingee

  • I think AEGR should get into curing or preventing EBOLA from spreading sector. Stock will jump 50 points I think just on that news in my opinion

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

AEGR
22.87+0.06(+0.26%)Dec 22 4:00 PMEST

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