The oils have not rolled over on these down days recently including the bad market day yesterday but it did today. We had a 2 million build on Wednesday along with builds in gas and at Cushing I believe. On Wednesday oil initially dipped and then rallied and continues each day solely because of the dollar weakness. The dollar has cratered at some point that crowded trade has to reverse I think these stocks can start to be shorted when they bounce after the open. I also think that you build a short position on theses daily bounces and in a few weeks ( May is here) many of these energy plays that have more than doubles like CLR will be a nice amount lower.
He said that XOM and CVX's share prices where pricing in $75 oil. That's my point that so many of these stocks are so ahead of themselves. If you look at so many of the 52 week highs and their current share prices many are not that far away yet we have oil at $46 nowhere near $75-$85 most likely when their shares were near the highs.
Futures and markets can drop 100-200 Dow points and as long as oil is up these stocks go up. The trade is getting old. Yesterday's Icahn driven sell off of markets actually showed the crowded trades these are they were selling these stocks despite oil up near 2% during the selloff. It's just a matter of time before oil and these trades consolidate I'm hoping for oil back under $40 and CLR near that $31-$32 level again then I get in again.
Months ago WLL was $3-$4 with tons of debt still have the debt facing bankruptcy now it's over $12. They are chasing all of these stocks without any concern about earnings and just assuming that earnings will automatically get better down the line. It's a weak dollar oil higher chase at some point the dollar will rebound and this will end. I cannot imagine foreign central bankers will put up with Yellen for much longer. All of these stocks are so ahead of themselves CLR was $31-$32 about 11 days ago look at it now. Take a look at XOM and CVX's numbers today XOM did well but not from oil CVX stunk so at some point earnings will matter. These trades possibly are about hitting shorts and are becoming crowded trades. Inventory numbers were bearish oil initially pulled back but the weak dollar has pushed it up each day since and it's Friday and oil goes up each Friday now no matter what.
look at WLL today
Another diasaterous qtr of no earnings announced, and the stock tried to rally, but now selling off, all on heavy vol
the Fed won't raise rates for a while. these super low rates means cash will get devalued. i would rather own "stuff" than sit in cash and. if oil stays too low, demand will increase and supply will get worked off on its own.