For anybody who sold CLCT in TY2014, you may be receiving a Revised 1099 from your broker as a result of a revision to CLCT Return of Capital. Already received 3 Corrected 1099's at this end.
coin certs are about 80K BELOW last yr at this time. At $20/coin, a $1.6M shortfall. Some of that will be made up because they rose prices again. Another wildcard is the Pogue collection. It was announced in early January that PCGS was grading that set. Did they actually grade it in January or was it done last year? The set is estimated at $200M. Just a few hundred coins but the best all-time set. PCGS gets 1% for coins of that value or $2M. Probably cut a deal and got $1M. So does that one deal make up for the volume shortfall? Still don't know exactly when they got those coins and graded them. Could have been last quarter.
Hard to therefore estimate revenue. The price rise and Pogue could give them FLAT coin revenue. But volumes are down by more than 10%. How will the street look at that? Something is off in that coin certs are down so much. They increased the dividend so they must have confidence. Not sure what to think here. I certainly don't like falling volume. No stock rises when volume decreases except the cigarette companies.
They have been continually raising prices with a new price increase in January. Maybe that finally tipped the scales. Maybe the HSN's and Coinvaults didn't ship large amounts of Silver Eagles at the start of the year. No big Mint promotions. Aging collector base. Who knows? Does it matter? They publish the numbers. Why would you buy when numbers are low? Do what you want. If some squiggle on a chart tickles your fancy bone, then buy. I go by the numbers
that doesn't help. any reason why? is it the metals prices still in the toilet? wouldn't think so for collectables as much as say bullion stackers.
but tempted to buy here thanks to the EO's selling.. at a support trend line from 2012 & after 3 red weeks. Looking good for a long chart wise.
their is a US company called PCGS Currency. Used to be owned by CLCT. They sold it years back for almost nothing as their was little volume. PCGS Currency pays them $50K/yr to keep the name PCGS.
Maybe the Chinese currency starts small but is good for the long term. The big drop in gold and silver the past month might hurt a bit, although January was a great month for the metals and your numbers would have included January so that's probably a wash. It could be what you said in that most investors have no clue of the numbers until they get reported. Your numbers are accurate and you post here before the company announces numbers. If I was a day trader I'd probably sell some shares and buy back 10% lower but I'll hold
they added Chinese currency but that seems like a small thing. I think the stock is still doing well because no one is aware of the huge falloff in volume. You think these funds are monitoring the home page of PCGS every day and noting how many coins they did compared to last year?
Thanks for the updates on the numbers. The stock continues to do well despite the insider selling and the lower coin numbers. Did they lay people off or come up with a faster and more efficient way of grading to lower the payroll time spent in grading? Or are there other collectibles being added besides coins and coins that have helped? Comic books, autographs, memoribilia, etc
I never said to give the "wrong" grades. One of the most recognized current silver dollar dealers in the country recently told me: " If PCGS gave every silver dollar the grade that it EVENTUALLY ends up with( the first time around), they would have been out of business some time ago". That's actually based upon how many "upgrades" he's actually received from PCGS time & again! As far as reputation, I believe that PCGS has no real worries there, as NGC's is already "shot to pieces". Yet, NGC is still apparently trying (in vain, I think) to "salvage" their grading reputation with NOW trying to be "over-conservative". Less & less dealers & collectors will submit coins their way based upon this, I'm sure! There are more specific examples regarding ??? grading that I am personally aware of but will not mention them due to privacy issues! Also, as you mention, I can't understand why higher grades would lead to higher future warranty claims ? This would only seem to occur if the coins were unquestionably overgraded. Remember, the grading co's themselves leave that "cushion" of flexibility since grading is partially an "opinion"!!!
higher grades lead to higher future warranty claims. Higher grades also lead to a lower reputation for the company which would lead to lower future submissions. You want the right grades, not higher grades.
final February numbers: 162,752 vs 223,886 last year, 61K falloff. Cards are just 1K ahead of last year for February. 27%+ falloff in volumes folks. There was a price increase of 5%-10%. Obviously the price increase does not make up for the lost volume.
Warranty claims of $147K for last 30 days is also huge considering normal yearly claims are under $500K. so if claims were to continue at this pace for 1 year, it would be over $1.7M. The high warranty claims essentially wipe out the price increase leaving a 27%+ falloff.
you remind me of the Pope's right-hand man..."the defender of the faith" (of CLCT). All I'm saying is for them to be a "little" more liberal, after thousands upon thousands of "hopeful" (& faithful) collectors have submitted (& re-submitted, & resubmitted, etc, etc,), and with little satisfaction to the collectors (PCGS makes bank EVERY TIME-regardless), no wonder
submissions are down! It can't be a one-way street.....forever. How stupid is that ???
the numbers keep getting worse. Big fall off in coin volumes. Last year by this date in Feb, had 146K coins, this year 109K. YTD last yr was 352K, this year 302K. Can't see how they can make up such huge volumes with price rises.
That's close to 60,000 shares that David Hall has sold this month, yet the stock is holding up. I'm still holding all shares but this is a concern and I'm thinking with another pop higher I might take some profits.