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Collectors Universe Inc. Message Board

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  • using the 21st of Sept #'s as the cutoff (due to processing delay), I get 504K coins and 420K cards for this current qtr. Cards have been working 7 days/week recently to meet their numbers and move down their excessively long backlog.

    That translates to over $13.9M in revenue, add in a little extra for non-card or coin revenue (Expo's, CCE network, digital properties, etc) and I get over $14.8M on revenue.

    figure 22c in GAAP earnings and $200K+ in cash added. Q1 warranty costs are down but they typically have capital expenses in this quarter. Hard to predict Tax rate is it varies wildly. Hopefully China losses will narrow. HOF coins and the Kennedy coins were wildly popular and will add to avg ticket price. The card division has its annual big show during this quarter. Card division also did not run its low cost promos this quarter which will add to card avg ticket price.

    Last year $14.1M, 20c GAAP, 447K coins and 431K cards, cash BURN of $1.2M. China started up last year in July and that was a big reason for the burn as well as cap ex. Even if cash flow this quarter is break even, that is a huge turn from last years big burn.

    I think my estimates have been consistently under estimating their performance.

  • Great Earnings. P/E at share price of 25 would be ~27.5. China still not contributing substantially on profit side. 1st analyst asked a question about RAISING dividend. 2nd seemed more knowledgeable and had a decent question about US mint sets and their impact since the baseball coins were apparently a major win for Q4 and have been for Q1 2015 as well. The response is that the mint is always issuing collectible sets but that it is fair to say that the baseball one was particularly sought after.

  • do not downvote either. That just gives them feedback that someone read their post.

    do yourself a favor and just ignore as their input is nothing but ad hominem attacks and useless info

  • the best "contra indicator" of the bunch is beefstooge. He literally will say something stupid at the absolute bottom. 2 years ago at $10 he was short and said the company was going to declare BK.

  • new daily record

    a new daily record. I use the Sunday-Monday statistics change to gauge the activity in China as US ops are closed on Sunday. New record hit last night with just 1271. If kept at that pace, it would account for about 16% of total world coin grading volume for the quarter. Has been running at 5%-6%

  • I am predicting about $500K cash flow positive this fiscal Q1. First time in their history and this is without stock option exercises. BOD members have $17+ options that expire in 2 months. I predict they will wait until next quarter to exercise which will make Q2, typically the "slowest" quarter, cash flow positive as well. "Managed" cash flow if you will.

    Warranty costs in the last 30 days are ZERO. First time I can remember seeing that. Sales are still strong and much higher than last year. Backlog is at strong levels. The company can generate $2M-$3M in cash flow this fiscal year. That would put them around $23M in cash. That sets them up for a dividend increase next year. Keep in mind half of their discontinued ops building leases expire end of next year too.

    Should China be a cash generator instead of a $1M/yr cash user, then that changes everything. There certainly are now thousands of Chinese millionaires now that Alibaba is public. Alibaba has a bad reputation for allowing tons of fake coins to be sold. I have always wondered why Ebay doesn't buy CLCT but they never have. They do have a relationship. Alibaba now has over $20B in cash and is hugely profitable. A purchase of CLCT by Alibaba would be chump change for them and would give them immediate anti-fraud cover.

    I don't get the short thesis here. Almost 10% of shares are short. Really guys?

  • Reply to

    nice EOD block buying and new short time high, $22

    by dbtunr Sep 30, 2014 4:07 PM

    42K+ after hours at just over $22. Another fund is buying in. CLCT up 12% for the quarter and a fund wants to show it on its ledger at quarter end

  • a 15K and 16K block at the close. Someone wanted in before end of quarter

  • short interest down to "only" 570K shares, lowest in almost 1 year. I think the last earnings report was the catalyst. The prospect of a good Q1 is also making them cover

  • sometimes stocks don't follow the "rule book". Some stocks are illiquid, under followed, unloved, and misunderstood. It is those stocks that an astute investor can make life changing money on. Eventually, fundamentals overcome inefficiencies.

    This stock is a perfect example.

  • Reply to

    1271 coins graded in China overnight

    by dbtunr Sep 15, 2014 3:06 PM

    CLCT is so transparent they TELL you every day how much business they did. Anyone can see if a slowdown is taking place. All they show now is RECORD volume of business.

  • the second best contra indicator is little billyteex1. Guy literally pans good companies and touts terrible companies. I think little billy and the stooge are long lost brothers

  • Reply to

    not sure what shorts are doing here

    by dbtunr Oct 30, 2014 10:17 AM

    Surprised so many here have sold at $24 level. I'm holding as Ive done for the past 2 years. I've never been good at timing the market and wouldn't want to try it now because the number of coins and cards being graded might have a nice increase in advance of Xmas.. I bought in around $14 and love the dividend and the growth and the fact that so little insider selling has happened for the past 8 weeks.

    And there are often factors not thought of by most that can lift a stock. For example, what if a competitor goes out of business or gets bought out? Or what if the company does a few lay offs of unneeded employees? Either way, despite some numbers being down of the coins and cards, I'm holding for now

  • Reply to

    "inefficient markets"

    by dbtunr Sep 5, 2014 11:48 AM

    Investopedia explains 'Inefficient Market'

    The inefficient market hypothesis and its proponents contend that market forces sometimes drive asset prices above or below their true value. They find support for their argument from instances of market crashes or upward spikes, whose existence and magnitude are seemingly incompatible with an efficient market point of view.

    Thus, in an inefficient market, some securities will be overpriced and others will be underpriced, which means some investors can make excess returns while others can lose more than warranted by their level of risk exposure. If the market were entirely efficient, these opportunities and threats would not exist for any reasonable length of time, since market prices would quickly move to match a security's true value as it changed. While financial markets appear reasonably efficient, events such as market-wide crashes and the dotcom bubble of the late '90s seem to reveal some sort of inefficiency within the markets.

  • Why did insiders sell 30K shares in September? They happy to get $20.15-$20.45 for their shares. How come this stock has tanked to $3 and $10 in the past. What drastically goes wrong and how can you be aware of it, before it happens to you?

    Be careful of what dbtunr whispers.

  • Reply to

    Risk factors

    by billyteex1 Sep 16, 2014 12:20 PM

    you may want to proof read before posting in the future. Punctuation issues especially. Just a friendly "heads up" to make your posts easier to read. They won't sound so rambling if you heed this advice.

  • Reply to

    Risk factors

    by billyteex1 Sep 16, 2014 12:20 PM

    no problem, it seems as if you have good information

  • It would be $500K cash added but they used $300K to buy back 13,600 shares for vesting of exec stock.

  • Reply to

    nearing dividend adjusted all-time high

    by dbtunr Oct 3, 2014 9:52 AM

    pretty much every short is under water by a huge amount here

  • Wow!! Some high fees. The $10K+ was for the $10M coin that sold last year.

    Our revenues are comprised principally of our authentication and grading service fees. Those fees range from $3 to over $10,000 per item, based primarily on the type of collectible authenticated or graded, the turnaround times and the specific service selected by the customer. We charge higher fees for faster turnaround times. Our fees are generally not based on the value of the collectible, except for special coin services sometimes requested by customers, for which we charge supplemental fees that are based on the value of the coin. In fiscal 2014, our authentication and grading fees, per item processed, for all of our businesses averaged $13.79, and our coin authentication and grading fees ranged from $4 to $10,000, and averaged $18.84 , per coin.

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