last year CLCT was worth $110M on valuation day and the min valuation was $130M. Russell up about 15% since then, or about $150M. CLCT worth over $170M right now. Looking very good for CLCT to be included. 700K+ shares will need to be bought by June 28 which is the day of the Russell rebalance. Only 4+ trading days left (Monday is a holiday)
Next Friday, the valuation day, is also dividend re-investment day for CLCT. Based on recent history and observation, about 40K shares will need to be bought next Friday.
Shorts could attempt one more downward push, but it is looking bleak for them
Collectors Corner now has 36 Registry sets in the first week. Cards for sale valued at over $3.1M. More importantly, 2 people have reported making SALES of their cards after listing there. Some snafus, but it is a work in progress. They are getting ideas and bug reports from users in real-time and fixing in real-time. With over 100,000 card registry sets, this can be a big business for CLCT.
Thinking out loud. 2 sales in 1 week with only 36 sets (of the 100K+) registered. If CLCT really gets this going that could translate to a couple thousand sales every week. At $5/sale in commission, this could add over $100K to sales every year. Just for cards. Coins are 3X more popular and 10X more expensive. This could be a multi-million dollar revenue item for CLCT, with very low fixed costs. Would probably increase margin and add 10c/yr to earnings. That 10c is essentially the cash burn they have now every year.
It seems to me that CLCT is thinking of not only getting into online sales with commission, but becoming the exchange, like NASDAQ, that aggregates prices and sales for all the sub-exchanges (auction houses). If they could strike a deal with Ebay where Collectors Corner items come up in the Ebay search, it could dramatically bring in new business. Maybe give Ebay a small cut for searches done through Ebay like Apple gets a cut on their AppStore.
Closed above the 10 day moving average 1st time in 3 weeks but was stopped at the 100 hour moving average withing a penny last Friday. Anyone buying the dip of 5/15 is up a couple of bucks on the share.. Yes it triggered a buy order I had so currently feeling warm & fuzzy.
dbtunr, curious about your thinking regarding the recent series of insider sales. Perhaps this is only possible during a limited window of time after the earnings announcement. But it is nonetheless troublesome for remaining shareholders. Van Simmons is on record saying that physical coins are a better value than CLCT shares, so this may simply be further asset reallocation. What do you think?
Also how do you get the figure of 700K shares that would need to be purchased if CLCT is included in the Russell 2000 Index?
Thank you for your great commentary on this stock.
There are coins for sale now that are "once in a lifetime" type coins. The "Newman Collection" is a huge collection that was bought over the last 70 years and has been put up for sale in pieces every few months. These guys live and breath coins. Maybe they have had their eye on coins of this type for years and years. In addition, Hall is older and has a great deal of his wealth in the company. The insider window opens up every qtr 2 days after they report until the end of the current qtr.
re 700K+ shares. I get that number looking at the volume last year on June 30 when CLCT was taken out of the Russell and two years ago when it was added in.
If they could begin to grab some of the large Ebay sellers, that would be huge. It seems that no auction site ever can break into Ebay's auction dominance, despite Ebay's harsh treatment of sellers and high fees. Ebay fees are around 10% commision on the sale price and Paypal adds 3%. Ebay also has listing fees after the first 50 each month and Ebay also takes 10% of the shipping cost which is pathetic. So if this auction idea could catch on and most importantly attract BUYERS, then it could be huge. Cards for sale is only important if they can also get buyers to the site. To get buyers takes advertising and it takes the sellers not over pricing cards
exactly. Fees would be less than 1/2 of Ebay's. Still uses Paypal for payment so Ebay would probably not care as they are cutting a cut.
At what point does another company recognize this "untapped value" and CLCT/PCGS become a buyout candidate? Wouldn't it make sense for EBay to explore an acquisition of CLCT and allow them to corner the market on coins and have a large majority of the operation be "in house".
you would think right? Sotheby's, Heritage, Ebay are all buyout candidates. Amazon is selling the "Saddle Ridge Hoard" so they are making a push into coins as well. They are also a candidate.
short interest up to 672,638 shares, up almost 20K shares. This corresponds to the 300K share trade day and the low point of the stock. So rather than covering on that day, shorts were adding. Either these are the dumbest shorts ever or they intentionally like to lose money
shorts now up to 672,638 shares. This is as of May 15 which was the 300K share trade day and the recent low of the stock. So at it's low, shorts were at the high. Why didn't they cover? The only downticks are shorting and shorting is met with aggressive buying when the price gets attractive.
This is a thinly traded illiquid stock and even 10K shares can move this. I wish CLCT would move to a monthly dividend rather than a quarterly dividend.
Perhaps another (less important) reason for the insider selling is to bring down the insider holdings/increase the trading float which Russell looks at when deciding whether to include a stock in their 2000 Index.
monthly dividend would be awesome, but there would be additional cash flow issues associated with that change, as well as internal costs to affect the transfer of dividends to the shareholders. Probably won't happen.
true. Cut it to 10c/month, $1.20/yr. Company would be cash flow even. The whole reason for shorting would be gone. They have plenty of cash for the cash flow issue. I really think this would be seen as a net positive
Hourly chart is interesting at this level, calling for a bit of a pop or drop here from a triangle wedge
for the first 2 months of this quarter (still have one day left, btw) coin and card volumes are up 10% compared to last year. I would expect revenue to be up that amount as well. That puts us at about $15M rev (vs $13.7) and 30c GAAP (vs 25c)
PSA has not run their really cheap specials as they have not had to. Will update in one month with better projections.