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Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. Message Board

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  • Reply to

    Short Interest

    by koloric Jun 10, 2015 11:17 AM

    Agree. Selling pressure has been high. The short interest will likely be up another 750K when the numbers are released today.

    I've been buying over the past month in 2K or 2.5K blocks. Even though the volume has been low on the days of my buys the bid/ask hasn't budged indicating a large inventory of shares. Not sure who is selling or why. Hopefully we'll find out soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Interest

    by koloric Jun 10, 2015 11:17 AM

    Okay. How low do you anticipate it going? 3's, 4's?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Short Interest

    by koloric Jun 10, 2015 11:17 AM

    I will not sell and will go long for their announcement of the RS II Junior for Human diagnostic application with the Roche's development. When it happens the stock price can easily back up to the 10's or more. Meanwhile, I will continue to load when it is low.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Interest

    by koloric Jun 10, 2015 11:17 AM

    Well the shorts are definitely winning the battle lately. Every time it gets a bid the sellers come in. Frustrating to be a long right now. Chart looks ugly. We need some momentum soon before the floodgates open up.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Roche NimbleGen’s SeqCap EZ enrichment technology with Pacific Biosciences’ SMRT® Sequencing to provide a more comprehensive view of variants and haplotype information over multi-kilobase, contiguousregions. While the SeqCap EZ technology is typically used to capture 200 bp fragments, we demonstrate that 6,000 bp fragments can also be utilized to enrich for long fragments that extend beyond the targeted capture site and well into (and often across) the adjacent intronic regions. Whencombined with SMRT Sequencing, multi-kilobase genomic regions can be phased and variants, including compex structural variants (Reference 1), can be detected in exons, introns and intergenic regions.Compared with short-read sequencing technologies that provide little to no coverage in the intronic regions,

    file:///C:/Users/Service%20Tech/Downloads/Application%20Note%20-%20Targeted%20Sequencing%20on%20the%20PacBio%20RS%20II%20Using%20the%20Roche%20NimbleGen%20SeqCap%20EZ%20System%20(1).pdf

  • Next generation sequencing technologies have offered the first feasible laboratory-based solution to the problem of phasing the complex polymorphisms seen in the HLA gene family. Limitations in read length have meant that a shotgun approach has to be applied, with multiple fragments covering an entire region of interest being necessary [10, 12, 20–24]. The SMRT DNA sequencing method from Pacific Biosciences has overcome the need to sequence multiple overlapping fragments allowing sequencing of a single fragment in excess of 20 kb in one sequencing reaction. The implications of this technology in the field of HLA typing could be enormous, allowing for true allelic HLA typing in a single experimental set-up and making redundant the need for multiple experiments on different typing platforms, cross-referencing of results and/or the need for re-sequencing using an allele specific protocol. We have described here the results of a feasibility study which shows that whole HLA class I gene sequencing is possible using the SMRT DNA sequencing platform. The sequence data generated was high quality and allowed for accurate allele calling. In addition, all stages of the experimental set-up were completed within three working days and sequence data were captured over 120 minutes. In combination, these factors make the SMRT DNA sequencing method amenable for use in a high-throughput HLA typing laboratory.

  • Reply to

    Short Interest

    by koloric Jun 10, 2015 11:17 AM

    Agree with your comments as well as those of tar262. This large short interest without huge price decline does appear bullish though puzzling.

    As of the April 3, 2015 14A filing (numbers as of Feb 28, 2015) there are 13,995,392 shares held by insiders. These are executives and board members. Michael Hunkapillar owns 4,437,246 of these (2,637,246 are held by him on behalf of Alloy Ventures). I like the fact that Hunkapilar owns 1,800,000 and this doesn't include his 1,207,143 in options.

    Given the current outstanding shares of about 75,000,000 the float is about 61,000,000 and that brings the short interest of the float to about 21%

    This last quarter Deerfield Management sold over 2,000,000 of their 5,120,771 shares but they also have 5,500,000 warrants and Deerfield might represent some of the short interest and perhaps they are using the warrants to mitigate risk. I have to admit that with the exception of possibly Deerfield I'm not sure where the short interest is coming from (open option interest is low so it can't be from there).

    There is a chance that Oxford Nanopore may become a competitive force in the long read arena but they are at least 2 years off from being competitive (they also have to deal with their biased errors). In the meantime I'm staying long and waiting for the P7 chemistry, the desk top machine, the possible Roche buyout (maybe they're short) and hopefully profitability within the next 2 years.

  • Reply to

    Short Interest

    by koloric Jun 10, 2015 11:17 AM

    for what it's worth lol, your thoughts are exactly mine. This is very suspicious action for no good reason I can find. Typical WS BS. No end to what retail investor must put up with.

  • Just looking to get others' thoughts on the dramatic increase in short interest this year, especially during Q2. The latest short interest reporting period was actually the lowest increase in short interest in a while at only ~750K share increase (mind you, that's approx. 1% of shares outstanding). Since the end of March, short interest has increased by an average of 1m shares every 2 weeks. Currently, short interest is ~17% of shares outstanding. Given the share price resilience in the face of this selling pressure (stock has moved from $6.50-7 range to $5.50 - 6 range since March), this increase in short interest has me feeling fairly bullish. In light of the plunging volume, the stock has made two record days-to-cover numbers in the last month according to Nasdaq calculations (currently, Nasdaq has days-to-cover at 29).

    The only thing I can surmise is that this is a full sale bet against the technology. I.e., expecting bankruptcy.

    I've explored the thought that this as a bet against dilution from future ATM cash raises, but I don't get the sense that dilution would be large enough to justify how much shorting is going on with this stock. Even if there is an ATM for 10m shares lets say in the next 12 months, half these shorts are already under water. At $6.50, ~4.2m are underwater. I checked with my broker and the trading desks aren't paying up to short PACB yet, but even the normal $0.005/day cost really adds up on a stock this low in share price. That's essentially $1.825/year to short this stock, or ~1/3 of the upside potential in these price ranges. So if they have to wait another 3 months before seeing ATM activity, they've already paid nearly $1/share for this trade. I just don't see the logic in a dilution short trade given the shorting cost and size of the short trade right now.

    I also don't think this is an earnings bet, as I don't see any 2015 negative catalysts to justify the short trade cost.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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