Copper has declined over 4% today, falling through the "support" level that was tested a few times. SCCO is following copper down. Copper is probably declining on increased production and perhaps lower than expected demand. Don't know for sure.
Recent market action in SCCO had been short term bullish trying to overcome general copper market bearishness. When the bearish trend on copper is revisited, it's particularly hard on stocks that had been trying to form a bottom and move up, like SCCO.
Not a recommendation. Do your own DD.
All the hard commodities are down today: coal, steel, copper. Perhaps China related? Everything is China related these days.
China’s import data surprised many today when it revealed that its traders bought 397,459 tonnes (438,124 tons) of refined copper in January, just shy of the record 406,937 tonnes imported in December 2011, and up 63.5% on January 2012.
Yes, SCCO seems to perform better than peers recently, though copper sector doesn’t present too many comparable stocks. FCX, VALE, TCK are not pure copper. By the way, look at PM stocks during last couple weeks. They all show huge increases, i.e. some financial institutions definitely played hand in it. It might be that SCCO got some “collateral vapor”, i.e. maybe some market players added this stock to their buying PM list, just to make it a bit more “conservative”. After all, many funds consider both precious and base metals as similar investment categories.
Anyway, numbers always look irrational in near term. They make sense in long-term only. If you look at particular stock on particular day then it is never justified 100% and, moreover, it is always possible to argue that it is not justified at all. It is good enough to have long-term goals and see long-term trends helping them. If near-term helps then it is even better. In my opinion, if someone has high designs on particular stock and this design is well justified then good near-term performance should not get questioned too much as not quite justified.
Please, excuse me that my previous message was likely too sharp regarding “personal issues”. It didn’t mean you, personally.
I concede that SCCO did beat tepid analyst estimates last quarter but have doubts that this justified a 17.7% pop in share price since 2/3. LME stocks may have something to do with future copper prices (why did SCCO quote a $3.50 copper price example in their statement about Mexican taxes?), but certainly didn't pop the share price of SCCO's competitors to the degree of SCCO since 2/3 ( i.e. FCX +8.6%, VALE 7.7%). I recognize that SCCO is one of the purest copper plays and is a low cost producer and that may have impacted the share price of their competitors vis a vis SCCO ..... but by 9 to 10%?
All I'm trying to figure out is ..... is the SCCO pop justified based on known facts or not ..... I SUSPECT NOT ..... and, IF I'M CORRECT, I am developing a strategy to take advantage of further share price increases by trading a small portion of my base SCCO position which some on this board MAY FIND of interest. Additionally, since I never claimed that I'm the font of SCCO knowledge, maybe, just maybe, someone on this board can convince me on the reasons for the recent pop ..... so far, you haven't.
Your comments about "personally-related notes" is probably correct in that many posters have a tendency to "talk money into their pockets (lie)" and that may say a lot about THEIR nature ..... but let me assure you I have never posted a known untrue "personally-related note" on this or any other board.
That being said, I'm not above "standing on the shoulders" of others when looking for good investing ideas ..... after doing my own DD. Sharing ideas or attempting to benchmark is no sin when it comes to investing especially when it doesn't hurt the other investor and there are some very good investors on this board in my view. So why not share in the interest of potential profits ...... as long as it doesn't take-over a board.
Firstly, rise in SCCO share price is justified by fact (in small or large caps, doesn’t matter): big decrease in LME copper storage number. This number is an objective indicator for copper supply/demand. This decrease implies that copper consumption doesn’t falter as it was speculated in some analyst comments. Sooner or later, hopefully soon enough, this situation will move copper price higher.
Secondly, SCCO was able to report solid earnings beating analyst estimates. It doesn’t happen too often. Guidance was positive, especially, long-term projections.
Thirdly, you can do whatever you like with your SCCO position. It is always good to lock on profits, though it is even more important to have own investment/trading strategy that doesn’t depend on advices solicited from Yahoo message boards. It can be also noted here that near-term market moves are hardly predictable.
Also, message board reports about personal investment achievements have very little relation to actual stock investment. Shortly speaking, discussion is productive when it goes about stocks and it becomes unproductive when it comes to personally-related notes (of any kind). Yahoo message boards are littered with winning reports. It says a lot about human nature and very little about stocks.
Here's my problem:
Can the 17.7% rise in SCCO share price since 2/3/14 be justified by FACTS? I think not ..... and IF I AM CORRECT, what should I do since SCCO represents a significant portion on my sheltered and non-sheltered portfolios and was the largest dollar drag on those portfolios over the last year?
Now, don't get me wrong, I continue to think that SCCO is a good long-term investment but here's what I'm currently thinking. IF SCCO continues to rise over the near-term I will be very tempted to sell a couple of thousand shares out of my sheltered accounts when I think SCCO has risen to unsustainable near-term levels and then re-buy after share price drops 5 to 7% from those levels.. The big question is what are unsustainable near-term levels? Me thinks anything over 38 and certainly anything over 40. I think 38 to 40 is a BIG STRETCH ..... but remotely possible. Certainly continual re-evaluation of this strategy is required based on any emerging facts and/or market action.
On another topic, January was a big disappointment for me but YTD my somewhat conservative portfolio has turned around (primarily due to SCCO). YTD thru 2/14/14, I'm up 2.04% which, if I've calculated correctly, beats the DOW, S&P and even the NASDAQ and puts me in-line to meet my 2014 objective of growing my portfolios by 12%.
Just my thoughts ...... ya all got any thoughts?