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Cynosure, Inc. (CYNO) Message Board

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  • Reply to

    senioranalist

    by tblew Sep 26, 2014 5:47 PM

    You can bet I will ;-)
    Anyway, thanks for comments and sharing your thoughts

  • Reply to

    senioranalist

    by tblew Sep 26, 2014 5:47 PM

    Valid point, however, I sold all of my CYNO February 2014 near $30 as well because CYNO ran up too far too fast. I have since re-built a much larger position in the stock and 2015 option calls as the stock fell back too far. the markets always over react. IMO CYNO is cheap given its momentum and prospects. We will know about my target in just about six months. We can revisit the subject then.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    senioranalist

    by tblew Sep 26, 2014 5:47 PM

    Management has shown its "confidence" in stock at the beginning of this year. When the PPS was around $30, they were selling their shares hand over fist.

    $40+ price target seems to me like a long shot.

  • Reply to

    senioranalist

    by tblew Sep 26, 2014 5:47 PM

    thank you for your explanation of your thinking and your handle. again, my bad. I do disagree with your suggested multiple (P/e) and your price target. I don't think their competitors are that weak; several have introduced pico instruments recently and have adequate financial resources. I think cost savings is a limited game, though acquisitions should be taken into account in growth. Other technologies could be formidable competitors (zltq). Still, I continue to hold a reasonable number of shares for lack of better alternatives. Long term I am positive, though I have a wait and see attitude.

  • Reply to

    senioranalist

    by tblew Sep 26, 2014 5:47 PM

    Thanks for your constructive, candid reply tblew. You are correct that their past organic growth was 4%. However, there are a number of components that will result in CYNO’s EPS growth being far above just their organic revenue growth. First of all, I believe because of their technology, acquisitions, management, product breadth, operations, and distribution coverage that CYNO’s organic growth will be a bit higher at 6% because of the growth in their medical and cosmetic dermatological markets and increasing market share. In addition, accretive contributions from their latest acquisition should add about 2%; synergies in revenue/expense/distribution from acquisitions will add about 10+%; and economy of scale gains should add about 2% in operating expenses and COGS as I explained in an earlier post. Hence, EPS should grow at 20% for the next couple of years. You are right that they have a few competitors; however, CYNO has better management, technology, distribution, margins, and efficiencies. Also, one competitor was once delisted for fraud, another is not making a profit, and a third is marginally profitable. That means CYNO’s P/E should be 22x or 25x or even higher. Their run-rate earnings now are about $1.30 and my modeling projects them to make $1.60 next year. They generate substantial cash and have nearly $6 per share in net cash. Thus, my target for next year, using the lower P/E, is $6+22x$1.60=$41+ for early 2015! In fact, adjusting for $6 cash and using their current run-rate EPS, their current P/E at the stock price of $21.42 is less than 12x! Now you see why I feel CYNO is extremely undervalued. With my experience (“senior”=”old”), I expect CYNO’s management and performance to vindicate me. I believe investors will respond to the improving EPS when they realize they have been looking in the rear view mirror at the EPS from two quarters ago which were impacted by last year’s splendid acquisition. Between us, Your thoughts?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    senioranalist

    by tblew Sep 26, 2014 5:47 PM

    i should not have been so sarcastic, but your analysis is inadequate and/or slanted if you do not mention or take into account the lack of organic growth, this is why, I believe, the stock is priced the way it is. It has the same lack of large broker analysts it had when it was $30/share. I also don't know
    what an "excellent market" means. In fact, competitions seems to be more intense, according to the CEO (and other cos. in the space) and is pressuring margins. The legacy businesses are flat or declining, and innovation is vital for any growth at all. In short, I think the stock market is pretty efficient, though I am holding this co. for the long-term, since it is well-managed and other stocks are expensive too. Note that management (Mike) sold shares around $22 and holds very little stock.
    I also think you are overconfident of your analysis, given these considerations, and that irked me.

  • Reply to

    doubled down this morning

    by markmick2000 Sep 26, 2014 12:19 PM

    I agree markmick. I doubled down on the stock and 2015 calls as well. GL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    senioranalist

    by tblew Sep 26, 2014 5:47 PM

    I have repeatedly stated that CYNO is a great investment because of numerous factors including "growth from their excellent markets." I also said that was a reason their EPS rebounded last quarter and should grow beyond $0.30 per quarter. They have superior proprietary technology, aggressive capable management, growing markets (organic & acquired), good/improving margins, outstanding distribution channels, substantial cash, and improving expense management. I believe their EPS growth will exceed 20% for some time. If I went into all the details of their favorable performance, it would take a couple of pages. The only explanation for their extremely undervalued stock price is the drop in EPS 2 quarters ago from a large acquisition last year and a lack of large brokerage analysts. EPS will grow and better known houses will pick up their coverage. I am a fundamental, patient investor. It has large rewards. However, I have no explanation for why you sarcastically attacked me? I have tried to help readers of this message board regarding CYNO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    senioranalist

    by tblew Sep 26, 2014 5:47 PM

    correctio: yoy or year over year

  • If you are so senior, why have you not mentioned that cyno had 4% organic growth you last qtr.?

  • This stock is bargain at this level.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Question for Senior6Analyst

    by mnmoneymaker1 Sep 23, 2014 7:22 PM

    My experience with our biomed and medical device firms is that total operating expenses as a percent of revenues can be brought down from CYNO's 46% to 40% mainly through reductions in SG&A with increased revenue synergies. I do not see GM going over 60%. Despite their experience, technology and distribution, I have generally shot for 55%-60%. Their GM is currently at 56%. As they capitalize on their synergies, IP, aggressive management, healthy growth in their markets, and distribution muscle, you can now see why my projection synergies all point towards a $40 stock by early next year. Right now, technical day traders, a merger EPS write-off drop two quarters ago, and a lack of mainstream analyst coverage is leaving this stock in undeserved doldrums. It is dirt cheap. Your developing EPS models will reward you handsomely. Patience; it will only take a quarter or two of good EPS which is coming. In one small-cap medical equipment firm we quintupled the stock price in about five years under similar circumstances. GL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • You seem knowledgeable about this stock. With merger synergies, what have you modeled the SG&A run rate as % revenues for the next 5 years? ....If you don't mind me asking. Gotta be a taper or inflection around the corner.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • IMO, just another penny stock whose stressed balance sheet will require many dilutive fundings given large ongoing operating losses. My analysis idicates that they are far from break-even and in two crowded markets, one of which I doubt will provide any license fees since there are ample, established competitors. They have a large capitalized amount of Goodwill on their balance sheet making the Tangible Net Worth far less than it appears as Shareholders' Equity. Have you an analysis projection to offer or are you a paid poster? Why post this ad on a CYNO message board without any substantive analysis of the company's prospects?

  • Just reported in formal 8k filing by PURE:
    The owner of Subway, the largest food chain in the world, through Franchise Brands, LLC, just invested $4million in PURE Bioscience as a strategic investment. This strongly implies that some very large restaurant chains will soon start buying “SDC” in very large quantities. Do you think it might be the 45,000 restaurant Subway?

    Several other major QSR’s are likely to follow soon.

    PURE is very STRONG BUY because they have almost $8 million in cash, the biggest breakthrough in food safety in decades using biotechnology, and revenues that are about to explode.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    At $23, CYNO is absurdly undervalued

    by senior6analyst Sep 9, 2014 10:13 AM

    It all depends on the price elasticity of the marketplace versus the give-up in gross margin, which CYNO should be in a position to know over the next several quarters. Meanwhile, as a retired medical device executive, I doubt that CYNO wants to drop prices of their new products at a time when they are dominant and all of their markets are growing at a high rate. Also, they have just successfully integrated a large acquisition and have plenty of demand for their operations. Better to consolidate the high growth and decide on price/volume issues later to avoid getting ahead of themselves. It may be that they could drive some competitors into a loss if they are extremely competitive with technology and can force down the competitors' gross margins with lower pricing templates.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    At $23, CYNO is absurdly undervalued

    by senior6analyst Sep 9, 2014 10:13 AM

    I admit to still be learning about their margins, costs and competition for tattoo removals,,, if cost is too high today for the procedures for the vast majority of people (I don't know?) Might they be better off dropping the price of the procedure,client financing, etc getting this to the masses. I suspect there would be huge built up demand. Curious what folks think.

  • So there was an acquisition. Looks good on the surface, but others would know better than I would. Also appear to be strengthening sales with this latest move:

    WESTFORD, Mass., Sept. 10, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Cynosure, Inc. (CYNO), a leader in laser- and light-based aesthetic treatments for non-invasive and minimally invasive applications, today announced the promotion of Chris Aronson to Vice President of North American Sales. Aronson, previously Cynosure's Eastern Area Director of Sales, will be responsible for managing the Company's North American direct distribution channel and expanding customer relationships throughout the region. He will report to Doug Delaney, Executive Vice President of Worldwide Sales.

    Prior to joining Cynosure in 2003, Aronson was regional sales director for Stryker Endoscopy. "Over the past 11 years Chris has taken on increasing levels of responsibility within our organization, advancing from sales representative to regional sales manager to Eastern Area sales director and demonstrating success at each level," said Cynosure Chairman and CEO Michael Davin. "He possesses the skill, expertise and enthusiasm to excel in his new role, and we look forward to his continued contributions."

    Encouraging I hope. Again others who have followed longer would know best. Sure wish this company traded much higher volume than it does today... perhaps in time.

  • Type “MicroCapReview” into your browser to learn why Millennium HealthCare (MHCC) stock price is about to explode and keep going for years. Click on “Read the latest issue and turn to page 22.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • With their new acquisition, CYNO's EPS should be about $1.50 next year. Hence CYNO's stock valuation should be $1.5 x 20 ("P/E") + $6 ("cash per share in 2015") = $36. In fact the analysts are all projecting "targets' of over $30. This company is not risky with earnings, a large cash hoard, great management, proprietary superior technology, and fast growing markets. In a quarter or so many people will regret not having bought CYNO here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

CYNO
21.25+0.29(+1.38%)1:44 PMEDT

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