Of course it is possible, ACI will be producing more met coal from the Leer mine in 2014 and rising met coal prices can easily lift profits. Although the majority of PRB is committed and priced already, remember that ACI along with other coal producers have reduced production over the years and the production committed already is not the maximum they can produce. If natural gas prices shot up crazy like in 2008, I am sure the utilities would be scrambling for more coal and would need more supply than what was contracted and ACI would increase their production and happily charge the utility the higher price on this production. Also, extremely high natural gas prices would result in higher and profitable CAPP prices and ACI may benefit there too.
On an environmental and practical level, batteries for residential solar power won't make sense except for off-grid locations or those wanting battery back up during a power outage. The only batteries that are economically practical for energy storage are lead acid, but their life is short if deep cycled. Lithium ion batteries are superior to lead acid but cost a lot more. From a resource standpoint, lithium is not very recyclable because very little lithium goes into a battery and the economics aren't there to recycle it versus mining it and any lithium ion batteries that are recycled are to recover other valuable elements such as cobalt. Lead acid batteries are easily recyclable with a recovery of typically 70%+ and there is a network already recycling lead acid batteries. It doesn't make sense to use lithium ion batteries in a residential or industrial setting because of limited supply of lithium available and you would be taking away resources from electric cars where the weight advantage of lithium ion is essential.
It makes more sense for residential customers to be grid-tie and net-metering any excess power production back into the grid for peak load balancing than charging a battery at their home. As electric cars reach higher market penetration, we will need more electric power generation to charge them.It makes more sense to help charge an electric car with the excess power generated from the solar panel systems across the country than to charge batteries to power the home at night when the solar panel system is not producing power.
In his book, Powers anticipates a drastic nat gas supply crunch with a few years and double digit price for nat gas in just a couple of years. Yet, he does not regard coal as part of the solution to the problem, does not discuss coal at all, in fact, instead pressing for more investment in alternatives and nuclear.
Will it break your heart more when, doctors under Obama care can't make decisions to save someone who is very ill, the death panel will decide their fate, which will likely be pain killers until death....read up on the mandate, you are grossly behind the curve.
A bank of batteries for a hybrid car, which has to surround by orange cones(in the dealership), and caution tape, elbow length electrical heavy duty gloves, and the batteries have to be hoisted out of the car, the electrical current from the above mentioned batteries will KILL a man or EMS worker...average cost for replacement 3000.00, disposal cost??
I've got an idea for all those with no healthcare: 1) no more crack purchases, 2) no thick gold chain purchases, 3) no 52' TV purchases & 4) no cell phone purchase s until you buy healthcare. Problem solved.
One thing more about using batteries as a back up. Batteries have an average lifetime of 3 to 4 years. If you add this into the equation your cost for electricity rises proportionately.
My research on solar systems that have battery backup are usually systems that are off the grid and they have a NG operated engine tied to a generator. In this case you don't have to worry about a power outage and additional charges from your local coal powered power plant. However installation of this type of system is more expensive than an on the grid system. Also solar panels average life is about 20 years and must be replaced. Cost to replace solar panels and batteries can run as high as $45K. I think solar will die out on home installation and maybe power companies will use solar power installations to supplement their power generation in lieu of NG run power plants. If I install a solar system it will be off the grid.
I feeling is that PRB coal will be significantly higher in 2014. But ACI has a vast majority of their production already priced and committed. With that being said, is there any chance for ACI to post big earnings surprises in such a situation. Yes, 2015 would be great but I'm trying to formulate some earnings models for 2014. TIA
I think there are a lot of factors that could potentially make using a battery profitable.
"For power-hungry businesses battery backup can make financial sense even now. Many businesses are charged not just for the amount of electricity they use over a certain period, but also for the level of electricity they need from the grid at any one time. Think of a car owner paying for gasoline to run the engine, but also for the amount of horsepower needed when the car is loaded with people and climbing a steep hill.
Often, those horsepower charges, known in the electric industry as “demand charges” ratchet up quickly."
China's coal output, sales stabilize in October
Xinhua | 2013-12-7 17:56:02
China's coal output and sales for the past 10 months are stabilizing, with the price of coal rising, according to the China National Coal Association (CNCA).
National coal production slipped 0.3 percent year-on-year for the past 10 months, marking four consecutive months of shrinking declines, while sales for October picked up 1.9 percent, according to the data released by CNCA.
Meanwhile, coal prices picked up in October, with the national coal market prosperity index rising 3.4 basis points over last month.
A stabilizing economy, increased heating demand, and thermal power growth boosted the once-flagging coal market, said Wang Zhanjun, deputy director with the economy management department of CNCA.
China's coal market has suffered prolonged price drops and business losses since May 2012 due to sagging demand, overcapacity and the inflow of imported coal.
Total coal production in 2013 might reach 3.7 billion tonnes and coal consumption is likely to grow 3 percent, Wang predicted.
China's coal consumption is expected to hit 4.8 billion metric tons by 2020, CNCA forecast in late Novembe
However, the sector faces more challenges as the country puts greater emphasis on economic restructuring and transforming the economic growth pattern. Environmental protection also puts a restraint on the sector's development, said Jiang Zhimin, CNCA vice president.
My take: China is not going to stop burning lots of coal anytimee soon.
Although they may be reluctant, Duke energy just got a million dollar fine killing Bald and Golden Eagles. Since 2008 over 600 have been documented as killed in the production of energy. Wait until the first documented death of a Calif. Condor and that will make the news.
Back to Arch, when will we start to see supply and demand balance, or swing to more demand? Longs would enjoy seeing sp back to respectable levels.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
2. I don't think the energy loss is negligible. If batteries were economical the utility companies would already be doing it. They would generate electricity at night and sell it during the day. A good example is Ameren energy. They have a reservoir at Taum Sauk, MO that they pump water up into at night and then generate electricity from during the day. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that it takes more energy to pump the water up into the reservoir than it generates during the day. From wikipedia: This ability to store energy led its operator to call Taum Sauk "the biggest battery that we have."
Tesla uses thousands of Panasonic laptop battery cells for the battery pack in their car. The model S has a 60KWh battery in middle model S, 85KWh in the high end model.. I haven't really looked into the chemistry of those batteries so I can't comment on discharge cycles and maximum discharge current. One thing I do know is that lithium ion batteries are very expensive compared to lead acid. Lithium ion has several advantages over lead acid, such as no memory effect , more discharge cycles, better charging efficiency.. We know that all electric cars are expensive because of the battery cost. We would all have electric cars if the battery cost was reasonable. Tesla offers a 60KWhr battery replacement for the S for $10,000. I would think Tesla would want to make a profit and won't go much below that, even though Musk is involved in both companies. 60KWh is not much energy in an industrial setting and much more would need to be purchased than that.
My problem with Solar City's strategy is how will they make the every expensive lithium batteries economical. Will they roll it into the cost of the solar panel system and just get it subsidized by by the various fed/state subsidies and carbon credits to reduce the cost . If that is there method, it doesn't make me happy as a taxpayer. I think Solar CIty is getting eaten up by First Solar in the industrial/utility solar plant space and are just looking for ways to make themselves appealing in that space with this battery gimmick..
Not sure about averages, but Tesla battery cost now is around $300 per kw. Elon Musk mentioned on several occasions that the cost will go down to $200 "very soon". Let's use $300 price and assume that battery will work for 10 years (this is for Tesla owners). I assume that you need to use those batteries for 4 hours per day of peak electricity price. So you will get $30/(4h*365days) which is apprx 3 cent/kwh, so it will cost to store 3cents to store 1kwh in a battery similar to the one that Tesla is using.
From EIA site: the average price people in the U.S. pay for electricity is about 12 cents per kilowatt-hour
12 cents is in the same range as 3 cents. So far so good.
So, with current battery price, it makes sense to use the technology with 3 assumptions:
1. At least 4 hours a day, electricity costs is higher by at least 3 cents than the lowest electricity cost (I can believe that)
2. There is a negligible loss of energy during battery charging.
From my numbers what Solar City is doing is not way off. Now I am not an electrical engineer, so the question is where my calculations are wrong? If they are not wrong than it is a reasonable technological solution. I have a feeling that I am wrong somewhere, but cannot tell where exactly.
Elon Musk is amazing. SpaceX launch costs are already 25% and 50% of existing competitors. The Tesla Model S is the number one ranked car in the world and he is the chairman of SolarCity. I wouldn't bet against him.
"they are using lithium-ion made by Tesla"
Maybe I am behind the latest news, but even recently Tesla was using Panasonic's batteries. They just recently, during last month's conference call, mentioned that they are planning to build "The biggest battery factory in the world". I have to give it to them: now they are more realistic after that fiasco with Hyperloop. I still cannot believe what I read on Tesla board about Hyperloop future and how much money Tesla is going to make from it.