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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

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  • CORRECT, just another way for these MONEYCHANGING MISCREANTS to STEAL from YOU!

  • That isn't much and next week weeks report will include this cold snap where folk turned back on their furnaces.

    America is in a very precarious energy situation; the East may be in pretty big trouble come a cold fall.


  • Reply to

    The beginnings....

    by dr_vvatson Mar 28, 2014 3:28 PM

    Arch hit a 6 month+ high today. Lot of calls flew on the April 4.50 and 5's They gonna move it and trade 'em. It happens every month. The drop from 40.00$ 3 years ago was set-up. Do you not think that there is a set-up going on now?

    You're damn right there is. There always is. Its not going to happen overnight most of the time.... But it could happen over a weekend.

  • Interesting. Farmers is calling for hot summer, Coal time!


  • They will slink back under the bridge before first light. Feeding them makes them dependent. They already have a hard enough time fending and/or thinking for themselves.


  • The news anymore is more of...who can make it more sensational. ... Please just give me the FACTS!

  • You're telling me you actually believe everything the government or these so called global warming scientists put in the news? (not that it matters because you won't be able to change it any how) Fellas being gullible is one thing getting paid to spread such #$%$ is another, how can mercury buster run down coal and rate it a buy is he stupid or paid for and as far as living in the fifties I also lived in the forties, you know the one they called the second world war and the Korean war and the sixties were the veterans of Nam were called baby killers by the same fools who'd hug a tree and then go home and make ready for their next abortion. I'm thinking what you fellas need is a good dose of military service to learn how things really work..SNAFU and FUBAR. I also remember when fools like you in the seventies had donkeys pulling logs out of the forest wear diapers, in fact that was when my father told me to start working all the overtime I could and save my money because he said watch out the idiots are taking over and believe me I did save because I knew he was right and as far as living in the fifties that decade had it's share of fools too, like senator McCarthy the teenage killers that ran amuck in Nebraska the hydrogen bomb tests and even the Cincy reds had to change their name to redlegs in baseball. Me thinks you better read the history of our country because those who don't know the history of their own country are doomed to repeat it. You too could end in a soup line, it's happened before and in all probability it will happen again. By the way this dumb old coal miner was even a millionaire once upon a time..... change that to a long time ago! Whatever... Live and learn and believe only fifty percent of what you read or hear on telephony vision, that way you'll have a fifty percent of being right....hippies yippies and yuppies I'd rather have my puppies!


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Okay, a UBS analyst finally figured out that Met won't recover as fast as thermal. Wow, what a revelation! They also didn't publish what US inventory is at coal plants and how much it will take to replenish them (See gorilla posts).

    But what about Coal spot price release on Monday?

    PRB hit $12.85. It's highest in years. Easy to see on the EIA website (not they are reliable or accurate, but at least you can call a utility and ask what they are paying). In fact, both CAPP and NAPP were up also, CAPP at ~$60 and NAPP at $68+.

    Thermal is just fine and contracts are looking good.

    Met bottomed, global digging is slowing, it will take a year to take care of the glut. Not too bad a picture.


  • A few years ago our crack scientists were telling us that the ozone was being destroyed. Ozone measurements were given every other day in the news. Freon was banned in the US. When have you heard about the shrinking ozone from our crack scientific community?? And half the world still uses Freon (equivalent) in refrigerators and a/c units. Same will happen with global warming. Al gore had us believe that the arctic cap would have already melted. Report I heard today says that it will happen by the year 2100.
    The problem is that a few coal companies will bankrupt in the short run. Also, a few poor people who cannot afford the increases in utility bills caused by the elimination of coal will be cold in the winter and sweat a lot in the summer. The world population of 9 billion people by 2050 is not going to be all that great for out planet. Could use some help from our crank scientists with plans to either control the population or help us with plans to support the masses. POPULATION IS GROWING EXPONENTIALLY!

  • Now it is up 17 cents end trading at $13.55/st!

    Looking at ACI's PRB pricing for 2015 ... it looks like we are going to see and improvement ... first time maybe in 3 years or so. This is a big "news" during earnings report ... which will be more the offsetted by decline in Met Coal pricing.

    Last quarter for 2015 ACI priced 52.4 mill tons in PRB for 13.78 .... now average price for PRB 2015 is $13.90 ... it does not take a Harvard Study (btw, where is jimjohn320?) to figure out that the average is going to move higher. Again, the distribution of priced tonnage is skewed towards first half of the year (but not by much) so the average price of unpriced 2015 contracts is probably a little higher than $13.90.

    If only they can keep cash cost under $11 during 2015 ... it will bring around 400 mill EBITDA just from PRB in 2015. Now 2015 looks like cash flow positive year if Met be at $140 Aus FOB (which is somewhat higher from current $120)

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Hold recommendation with target of $5, when the stock is $5!!! Any retail customer still feeding these blood-suckers deserves such sage advice.

  • Reply to

    UBS puts reputation into question?

    by gpfraser Apr 9, 2014 9:22 AM amwdman Apr 9, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    UBS (same idiot analyst) downgraded on March 26th from BUY to Neutral. They had a price target of $7 and changed it to $5. Less than 3 weeks later, he downgraded to SELL from Neutral (price target changed to $3 from $5). What a moron! Met coal will NEVER stay at this price. In the real world, the producers will cut back production until prices firm up. That is the way it works. Supply and Demand balance each other out way faster than people think. Just look at how long natural gas prices stayed below $2 in 2012. Thermal coal pricing keeps going up, also. Holding 52,000 long, average price of 5.22.

  • Reply to

    Sold all yesterday, Heres why

    by shmickersmack Apr 9, 2014 10:06 AM

    Next time, post the day of the trade and how much. Then, just maybe then, someone will believe you.


  • He's a fraud. Just ignore him and he'll go away.

  • And the good lord doth revealed that schmudder-schmuck set up his latest ID on yahoo on April 9th to be a pesky vermin on the coal MB's. Thank god for the iggy button. Poof!!

  • stupid so called green energy program that has created poverty for thousands while some politician gets rich promoting it. I know how hard the coal miners work in dangerous places to provide food for their families, and these green energy advocates fly around in 747 jets preaching clean air to everyone....What a bunch of hypocrite's they are....

  • Yes sir, solar energy is exploding. Solar now provides 0.17% of energy worldwide and may someday reach 0.2% provided we can find a place to store all the worthless old toxic solar panels.

  • Demand for thermal coal is expected to recover in the United States after two years of decline as power producers switch back to coal due to a recent run-up in natural gas prices.

    U.S. coal miners Alpha Natural Resources and Arch Coal Inc said earlier this year that they expected demand for thermal coal to pick up due to severe winter weather, coupled with a fall in inventory levels at utilities.

    "Lower inventories will continue to be a driver for our coal business in the second quarter," Eric Butler, executive vice president of Union Pacific's marketing and sales, said on a call with analysts.

    Rival Kansas City Southern said on Wednesday coal shipments were better than expected in the first quarter and that it expects that strength to continue in the current quarter.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Zoltan Ban, an energy analyst, has published data showing that Marcellus natural gas production increases is slowing. This is largely due to something called legacy decline. The decline in ng production from existing wells is increasing faster than production from new wells is increasing.

    The EIA is predicting that the Marcellus will increase production this year by 3-4 trillion. Zoltan Ban finds this highly improbable. Increases in Marcellus Shale production this year will be much less than that. And when legacy declines balance with productiopn increases there will be no increases in Marcellus ng production. Something that may happen this year or next year.

    Outside of the Marcellus, natural gas production is declining at about 3 trillion a year. Marcellus production increases have negated that decline recently. However, when Marcellus ng production is stable or, OMG, decreases, we will have significant declines in total natural gas production.

  • Obviously they could have downgraded it to a sell July 2012 when it was $25.... no instead UBS waits until the stock has bottomed and crosses above the 150. The stock is breaking out of a bottom and they downgrade it now to sell? This is absolutely a silly game. I would strongly call into the question the motives here. If you bought at $25 its a little late for a sell. Also if you bought at $4.50, isn't it a little early to make a sell call in the midst of a breakout rally? I am little surprised on the timing of this call!

4.47-0.01(-0.33%)11:32 AMEDT

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