Good God...I have been buying into this stock since the plunge it had late in 2011...this has been such a frustrating stock to own. I have averaged down massively over the last year...I am still not breakeven though and I still believe that it is undervalued; but the catalysts do not seem to be coming. Each time we are turning a corner, something else holds it back. Production numbers are extremely predictable. While I can appreciate the significant reduction in natural declines, it would be nice to have some exciting plays to talk about here. And Canada has quite a few up its sleeves...
Management has lost all credibility here. Everything has been said on this board and other boards. The CEO, Mr Wright, rides this firm like its own ship and the board is completely captured. They almost ran it to the ground with debt and an unsustainable dividend policy, while production was as high as 50K bls/d!! How is that possible?!
Now we are on a much better footing. My hope is that we will close above $10 by year end. But for that to happen, we need more than a good quarter. We need further asset sales. We need further debt reduction. We need intent!
Also, while Crescent and Vermillion get all excited with the Torquay, we do not even mention it even though it seems we have acreage above it. Hello, Mr Laprade, COO, why are our wells not delivering as much as our peers? Why are we not talking about the Torquay?!? What about the acreage at Slave Point? Could we finally start talking about it? This is incredible. This firm is keeping its shareholders completely in the dark.
It needed a revolt and a multi-year low for the firm to finally wake up and get out of its disastrous financial policy. What will it take to improve on its operational efficiency?
Sorry for the rant. I am long LSTMF and I know how to be patient But please give us a bone here. I truly hope the first week of August will give us good things to talk about with the earnings call! GLTA!
Production for the second quarter of 2014 averaged 42,500 boepd based on field estimates (80% light-oil and liquids weighting), in line with first quarter 2014 production, accounting for dispositions. This represents a 3% reduction from first quarter 2014 levels, significantly lower than the average seasonal drop of 11% we have experienced for the past three years.
On July 7, we closed the previously announced $98 million asset disposition of a portion of our southeast Saskatchewan non-core assets which consisted of approximately 1,000 boepd of production (96% liquids weighted) and 3.9 MMboe of proved plus probable ("2P") reserves.
Although we received competitive bids for our east Pembina Cardium asset package, we have not yet been able to finalize a transaction. We will continue to operate these assets, which contribute $15 million of net operating income to Lightstream annually. Our sales process for conventional assets in southeast Saskatchewan is still ongoing with initial bids due later this month.
On July 11, 2014, we repurchased approximately US$44 million principal amount of outstanding 8.625% Senior Notes due 2020 from a note holder for an aggregate purchase price of US$47.6 million, including accrued interest. The repurchased notes are being retired and a total of US$856 million aggregate principal amount of 8.625% Senior Notes remain outstanding. The repurchase was financed through our secured credit facility and results in incremental interest savings of approximately $2.5 million per annum.
"We will be releasing our second quarter financials results on August 6, 2014. Management of Lightstream will be holding a conference call for investors, financial analysts, media and any interested persons on August 7th, 2014 at 9:00 a.m. (MST) (11:00 a.m. EST) to discuss our second quarter financial and operating results."
Sentiment: Strong Buy
seems to be a 10:1 buy/sell ratio from institutions last 8 weeks anybody have any info that says different?...I do not have great institutional info from my paid service but going by free MSN/Morningstar info
how about PETRONAS, it's been 18mo since they bot Progress.. CA is ripe for allowing another takeover. "oh, ok, just one more...." how many times has that happened. then maybe CPG would come in.
If not a chinese firm and prob not cause we r to small I could def see CPG making a run at LSTMF. if the price stays low and the shore up the balance sheet someone is going to gobble them up soon
RBC reviewed 2nd q update and reiterated 8.75TP. WTI bounced up hard from long term uptrend line of 99.63 yesterday and closed up today. lts so oversold it was due.. would have like to have seen more large block buys into the 3rd q by pension funds, mutual funds etc. pretty much normal Canadian volume today.
Lightstream (LTS) – 3x. Eventually.
Say you own a house. And your neighbor across the street owns a similar house. Heck, let’s just say the entire neighborhood is made up of similar homes.
Last weekend, the neighbor across the street sells her home for $150k. Zillow’s Zestimate also values everyone’s house at $150k – everyone, that is, except yours. Your home, although nearly identical, is inexplicably valued on Zillow for $50k. You’re confused, but it doesn’t really matter because you’re never going to sell it for $50k. When you go to sell, you’re going to get what every comparable home in your neighborhood gets. That’s how the real estate market works.
That’s how every (mostly) efficient market works. Eventually.
But in-between today and “eventually”, anomalies can pop up. And these anomalies create fantastic investment opportunities.
Case in point: Lightstream (LTS; previous note here).
This past Sunday, Whiting Petroleum bid for Kodiak Oil & Gas (here). The market seems to love the all-stock deal, with the acquirer (WLL) up almost 8% yesterday.
The interesting thing about the target (KOG) is just how similar it is to LTS. They are both pure-plays on horizontal production, heavily weighted to oil, have similar production profiles, per-well economics, and cash flows. Take a look at just how alike they are:
LTS v KOG 1
After studying this table, you could make the argument that LTS is, in fact, more attractive than KOG. But for the purposes of this note, KOG is quite literally the neighbor across the street.
Let me repeat that: KOG is a near-perfect comp to LTS. And the deal announcement between WLL and KOG creates a near-perfect precedent transaction with which to value LTS.
So call me confused as I stare at the Grand Canyon-sized gap in valuation between KOG and LTS – it’s the functional equivalent of Zillow valuing your home at $50k when your neighbor just sold for $150k:
LTS v KOG 2
To reach KOG’s multiple, Lightstream’s
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Yesterday's trading activity looks like a sweetheart takedown for best price on those 100k shares... must be a VIP client of Market Maker. Not a bad scoop, pick up a $48,000 annuity for $665k, with the added plus of equity appreciation (already up 3% from takedown level)... guess its good to be king ;)
You are right about shake out of weak hands: the comps to Kodiak, not so much, other then both companies take over value is at around $14 a share.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
In the last minute of trading someone jumped into the pool and bought 100,000 shares at $6.65. I think all the weak hands have been wrung out. These shares are CHEAP, compare to WLL's buyout of Kodiak; Lightstream's metrics are almost identical to Kodiak except for the PRICE!!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'm really surprised at this reaction and even more surprised that we've fallen this far overall. I filled
my position way too early but I'm confident it will work out in the long run. This market is just brutal and the longer I'm in it, the less I understand it.
here comes 6.50,, revised my limit order to buy at 6.50 to try to catch some at 6.25 for long term holdings not a trade, probably not today but maybe this week if oil/ng keep heading down.. about a 7% yielder again.. glad I sold a little on the way up to recent highs, will use that firepower for my limit.... but still a core holding as long as they keep executing plans.. if CPG or someone came in at $10 offer today or this week, it would be a huge premium but still so cheap for them.. they could offer .25sh of CPG stock, refi the LTS high yield debt at very low costs, keep cleaning up non -core, gain 40kboe production, infrastructure. wow seems no brainer to me! glta. Bea