Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. Message Board

The stock is up 31.6% today as of 3:15PM. I hope you got in on this move.... Although, I don't think it's over yet. The stock is still only trading at 4.5 times trailing earnings.

winter "storms"

The low volume today compared to the day after their other recent earnings reports tells me not a lot of weak longs or new shorts. Which makes sense to me given the positive comps this quarter in areas not affected by winter stores. Based on images of line-ups in NY area malls, and styles selling out online, I'm guessing K&K contributed to the positive comps, and if true, those who have been paying attention know the new summer K&K line will launch next week.

The weather is a very real driver of results for these guys. If investors buy/sell purely based on the stated guidance/range, this will continue to go down and your short will pay off handsomely. If investors buy/sell based on a more educated view of the information the company actually shared, then it won't go down, and will actually go up heading into the next earnings release. The thing is, I'm not sure there are a whole lot of clueless investors left in PSUN.

good company on the up and up.shorts will lose money

It seems you guys are basing your predictions on technicals. If the company only has cash down only $1.6 million on the entire year, do you actually expect this company to be finished any time soon? That leaves technicals, but the technical price targets in my brokerage account for this stock over the past several years have proven consistently wrong (whether going up or down), which is why I'm glad I don't base decisions on technicals.

Rats; Schwab doesn't allow this stock to be shorted unless a minimum of 50,000 shares are shorted plus a fee.

I think you made a wise short , this is going much lower

Their cash flow statements indicated cash declined for the entire year something like $2 million dollars, and I think they said on the conference call that they did not draw on their line of credit during the entire year. It looks like liabilities and debt did go up, but I question whether things are as dire as you suggested, especially given that there was a major storm shutting down many east coast airports in the beginning of February.

You're basically counting on the new lines catching on. They've been struggling to keep their head above water, and it remains to be seen whether they can get back their cachet and moxie. I personally doubt they will. They had the sector to themselves, nearly, many years ago, and, in fact, created it. But now, they're fighting for their life, and are seen, generally, as "yesterday" by the kiddies. The ongoing operating losses are still very serious...and the balance sheet getting weaker and weaker.

Unless you have your finger VERY close to the pulse of what is going on in the actual stores, there are better, less risky stocks to be long. This thing is a crapshoot, at this point. At best.

I expected them to provide guidance of +1-5% based on the new product lines, and was initially disappointed by the guidance they gave. But if you listen to the call, they are actually running positive comps in the regions that aren't adversely affected by the weather. I live in the Midwest so I know how cold it has been this year relative to last year. I just hadn't factored this into my expectations.

Net net, I think the earnings had some negative news about Q1, but actually had positive signals for the overall health of the business. As I said earlier, I think some short-term holders might sell in the near term, but I still expect PSUN to do well for the longer term holders over the next 3-6 months. We shall see.

Sentiment: Buy

Well, shouldn't the new product lines be helping them more in Q1?

great hope it goes up tomorrow

Top line yes - by a smidge.

Bottom line they posted (.17) vs (.16) expected. However, the analysts and market have been much more interested in top line as it applies to these retail companies lately. I own another company that beat top line and missed bottom line by 12 cents/share (posted a loss of 3 cents when expected was 9 cent profit), analyst brushed it off and said top line growth along with progress warranted upgrading the stock and price target.

did they beat expectations?

Highly doubtful they will beat earnings. They already said how they were doing through two months, and I don't see January changing that very much. So they should basically just meet analyst expectations for this quarter. I think the stock price run-up has been driven by the possibility that the future outlook might look brighter on this call (perhaps driven by the Kendall & Kylie collection). If that happens, we will continue to go up. If not, we will go down.