The Blackstone Group LP Message Board
- Reply to
Black Stone Investor Day at 8:00am May 3, 2013 @ 20.78
by carolyn_novice •May 3, 2013 8:07 AMMost of the holders are Institution, they price is built in the future growth.
I am listening to the Investor Day.
Good Luck!
Carolyn NoviceSentiment: Buy
- Reply to
Black Stone Investor Day at 8:00am May 3, 2013 @ 20.78
by carolyn_novice •May 3, 2013 8:07 AMDid you read the information from the presentation? I think you are missing the point. It is a fundamental point, not a point regarding who you think will sell. Take a look at the presentation on hypothetical valuation of the stock based on dividends. And tell me why with increasing dividends the stock will NOT move up? Waiting!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
- Reply to
Black Stone Investor Day at 8:00am May 3, 2013 @ 20.78
by carolyn_novice •May 3, 2013 8:07 AMProverb
If wishes were horses, then beggars would ride
There is lot of overhead supply and BX up move will be very gradual. Market is close to top and profit takers are waiting to jump in, once this move slows down. Stock can move 10% to 20% from these prices. But BX will give dividends, so your dream of BX to reach 30’s will remain a dream.
Good Luck!
Sincerely,
Carolyn Novice
Last trade 21.65
Volume = 4,200.000Sentiment: Buy
- Reply to
Black Stone Investor Day at 8:00am May 3, 2013 @ 20.78
by carolyn_novice •May 3, 2013 8:07 AMHits $22.00 look for @34.00
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Please log on to Blackstone Profile.
Sincerely
Carolyn
Novice -
It is because BX is monetizing investments and will have more distributable cash for some time to come. I am long BX and long BX options into 2014. I know there are shares short, I just cannot identify why. Based on my analysis BX if about 50% under valued...... Could be more. Hence I am bullish.....
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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It is due to dividend reinvestment, brokers like Fidelity must buy before Monday, May 6, 2013. Ih has lot of supply above 21.15 - 21.55. It should stop and rext soon. Let us see the volume after lunch and near the close.
There is lot of shares short and alos look at the call writers, who will lose the stock if it make a new high.
Good luck!
Sincerly
CarolynSentiment: Buy
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BX is moving up because of fundamentals!! Option Strikes do not have much to do with the fundamentals. Buy Blackstone for a 50% gain by the end of 2013!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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BX tested its 20 day average and the next up move should have lots of volume, compared to average volume 5,045,960.
Also log on to the BX Profile and listen to
May 3, 2013
The Blackstone Group Analyst Meeting -
8:00AM EDT -
Please keeps an eye on Call Options expiring May 18, 2013
Strike price 20…95 cents…3,350 open interests
Strike price 21….38 cents…11,632 open interests
Sincerely
Carolyn NoviceSentiment: Buy
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While Blackstone has benefited from government tax and interest rate policies, it has also made some canny moves on its own.
In real estate, especially, Blackstone's timing has been good. "They were very aggressive in selling down real estate precrisis," explained Sterne Agee analyst Jason Weyeneth.
Then, several years later, Blackstone moved opportunistically to pick up distressed properties. "Beginning in 2009, they got aggressive. They bought a lot of office properties," said Weyeneth.
"Hotel and office are the two big areas" for Blackstone in real estate, he adds. But starting in early 2012, Blackstone also swooped in on depressed residential real estate markets such as Arizona, California and Florida.
"It was good timing," said Weyeneth, who estimates that Blackstone has picked up nearly $4 billion worth of depressed residential property. Blackstone will convert many of the foreclosed homes it has acquired to rental use. "Longer term, they are going to be a very large owner of residential properties with stable income streams," he said.
That's just the sort of business that could appeal to a real estate investment trust. Analysts believe Blackstone can now create such REITs and sell them to the public. Or it can sell hotel, office or residential properties to existing REITs, or perhaps to a sovereign wealth fund buyer.
"Distributable Earnings"
Either way, its hotel, office and residential properties can soon bolster its pool of "distributable earnings." As much as 90% of reported distributable earnings are returned to unit holders. (As a partnership, Blackstone shares are technically units.) Blackstone distributed 51 cents per unit in 2011. Last year, distributions climbed to 72 cents. This year, analyst Weyeneth expects distributions to reach $1.32. In 2014, he estimates distributions will total $1.68.
Public offerings of operating companies in Blackstone's $51 billion private equity portfolio could also feed the distributable earnings stream.
Michaels Stores, the arts and crafts retail chain taken private in 2006, has already filed for a new public offering. Other Blackstone portfolio companies could follow, especially if the IPO market shows growing life.
Blackstone is also a leading manager of funds of hedge funds. And it has expanded its investments in a wide range of debt, particularly corporate bank loans.
Still, analysts see new opportunities for this asset management behemoth. Especially promising are Asian real estate and the management of retail investor funds.
To this point, Blackstone manages mostly institutional monies. But as chief operating officer Hamilton James told analysts in April: "The total amount of high-net-worth assets is bigger than the total amount of institutional assets."
As long as the Fed keeps pushing investors into high-risk, high-return assets, Blackstone should suffer no shortage of opportunity.
Sincerely
Carolyn NoviceSentiment: Buy
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Don't fight the Fed, the old saw goes. Better still to have a friendly Fed using its high-capacity lungs to blow a steady wind at your back, thereby lifting the value of your assets.
With the Fed suppressing interest rates for years, yield-hungry investors have embraced riskier assets. And Blackstone has everything from debt-laden LBOs to exotic loan and hedge fund portfolios within its $218 billion under management.
"The Fed's lower interest rates have helped asset valuations across the board, including Blackstone's real estate, corporate private equity and credit investments," said David Chiaverini, research analyst with BMO Capital.
IBD Smart Select Rating
Composite Rating……. 95
Earning per share……..80
Relative price strength….89
Accumulation-Distribution = B
Rock-bottom rates are an all-purpose elixir for a leveraged buyout company and asset manager like Blackstone.
"There's no doubt that attractive financing at low rates has provided them with additional opportunities in terms of doing leveraged deals," noted Jefferies analyst Fannon. "It has clearly allowed operating companies to lower their finance costs. With real estate, it will help them if they want to be sellers in an environment where people can get financing."Sentiment: Buy
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Blackstone Fattens As Stocks Real Estate Recover IBD May 1
By NORM ALSTER, FOR INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 03:18 PM ET May 1, 2013
Private equity fund manager Blackstone Group has traveled a rocky road since going public in June 2007. When the financial crisis hit, its portfolio of debt-laden leveraged buyouts dragged down performance. The stock bottomed at 3.55 in February 2009, a huge fall from its $31 offering price less than two years before.
But Blackstone (BX) kept raising money from its institutional investors and wisely put that money to work in real estate and other markets beyond its traditional LBOs of operating companies.
"Almost $76 billion of our current assets under management of $218 billion come from new products, new strategies and new regions that didn't exist for us at the time of our IPO six years ago," Chairman and CEO Stephen Schwarzman told analysts April 18. He co-founded Blackstone with Pete Peterson.
With a sustained boost from favorable Fed interest rate policies, Blackstone has benefited mightily from rallies in equity, real estate and credit markets.
Last year, assets under management rose 15%. And with Blackstone finding markets increasingly receptive to IPOs of its portfolio companies — SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS) was the most recent example — it has hiked its returns to investors and shareholders. Distributable earnings of $379 million in the first quarter trailed only the prior quarter for the best performance since the 2007 IPO.
Realized Performance
A key metric for asset mangers like Blackstone is realized performance fees, the money the firm gets when it can exit an asset through an IPO or other type of sale. Blackstone's two most recent quarters have also featured its two strongest post-IPO quarters in realized performance fees.
Such "realizations," along with the fees Blackstone earns for managing more than $200 billion in assets, allowed the company to distribute 30 cents per unit to investors in the first quarter, That's triple last year's distribution, CFO Laurence Tosi proudly noted in comments to analysts April 18.
And things could improve from here. Blackstone is now poised to harvest assets from its huge real estate portfolio, which stood at $56.7 billion at Dec. 31, 2012. With holdings in hotels, offices, commercial real estate and homes, Blackstone can soon capitalize on the broad real estate rebound.
"The acceleration in earnings will come from real estate. There are growing exit opportunities. Real estate has potential to move the needle," said Daniel Fannon, analyst with Jefferies & Co.
Much has been made of the "carried interest" loophole that enables private equity managers to pay lower tax rates on the appreciation of their portfolios. But at this point, friendly Fed policies may be playing an even bigger role in Blackstone's success.Sentiment: Buy
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Option Expire May 17, 2013
20 Call Option
Last = 0.90
Outstanding = 2.356 or (235,600 Share)
21 Call Option
Last = 0.38
Outstanding = 10,295 or (1,029,500 Share)
April 30, Volume = 3,462,100…….Low Volume
90-Day Average Volume 5,040,536
Is it Low Volume Consolidation or Distribution?
Institutions are busy writing 21 Call Option, while selling stock in the in 20.50-20.60 Range.
Eventually stock has to breakout with higher volume, if so which direction, please keeps an eye on May 20 and 21 Call options Outstanding Volume.
On May 6, 2013 Stock holders get dividend and on reinvestments plan it creates artificial demand. Arbitration, will tale place before the end of this week, many will sell stock as there holding increases, others it is buying for automatic dividend reinvestments.
Sincerely,
Carolyn NoviceSentiment: Hold
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Average Daily Volatility (20 days) = 0.69
Average Weekly Volatility (10 Weeks) = 1.32
Average Monthly Volatility (4 Months) = 2.58
Settlement Date …..Short Interest ……Avg Daily Share Volume …..Days To Cover
4/15/2013…………. 9,793,906…… ……4,290,692 ………………...2.282594
3/28/2013…… …….8,832,954…… …….4,299,157…. ……………..2.054578
Ownership Summary
Ownership Analysis ------------ # of Holders ------------ Shares
Total Shares Held: ------------ 291 ------------ 287,846,632
New Positions: ------------ 66 ------------ 13,262,039
Increased Positions: ------------ 146 ------------ 52,854,279
Decreased Positions: ------------ 97 ------------ 36,175,715
Holders With Activity: ------------ 243 ------------ 89,029,994
Sold Out Positions: ------------ 29 ------------ 3,097,317
Big Buyer….MORGAN STANLEY
Date ending……03/31/2013
Shares held…….29,108,632
Change (buy) …..1,540,302
% Change ………5.59%
Value ............… $29,358,156…..invested quarter ending March 31, 2012
Please Google search 'Volatility'
Volatility: It is the price difference between high and low.
Investopedia explains 'Volatility'
In other words, volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk about the size of changes in a security's value. A higher volatility means that a security's value can potentially be spread out over a larger range of values. This means that the price of the security can change dramatically over a short time period in either direction. A lower volatility means that a security's value does not fluctuate dramatically, but changes in value at a steady pace over a period of time.
Sincerely,
Carolyn NoviceSentiment: Hold
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soldier_boy63h Thanks for the class, however what does it have to do with BX?
On Friday, April 26, 2013, BX was strong on opening on a very low volume, but then the trend was down. From 11:54am to 3:00pm the trading range was 20.27 to 20.30, more than two million shares traded. Such trading is between the block houses and less than 5% to 10.00 % by individuals.
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Please buy stocks only when the bid and offer and in the range of above 5,000 shares, and stock trades in that range for 15 minutes.
13. Avoid the open. They see YOU coming sucker…..Please see the Opening on the interactive Chart.
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16. Price has memory. What did price do the last time it hit a certain level? Chances are it will do it again. ……BX around 20 has a historical importance,
BX Made 2013 New High on April 11, 2013….remember big resistance: After this stock is down and holders are sitting with losses.
Open = 20.95
High = 21.46…………….New High big resistance, if not broken soon, then how low?
Low = 20.93
Close = 21.10
Volume = 4.472.599
BX came public on June 22, 2007 at $31 and first day trading is as follows.
Open = 36.45
High = 38.00
Low = 34.25
Close = 35.06
Volume = 113,095,700 Very High volume, it will take very long time or never no clues.
BX made historical life time New Low on February 27, 2009
Open = 3.75
High = 4.88
Low = 3.55
Close = 4.87
Volume = 4.596,000
Blackstone was founded in 1985 as a mergers and acquisitions boutique by Peter G. Peterson and Stephen A. Schwarzman, who had previously worked together at Lehman Brothers, Kuhn, Loeb Inc.
Lehman Brothers is gone but old friends are still there in BX at what price? And at what price they are willing to buy and sell? Most of the trading is between the old pals.
Before topping stock has to have a run up and heavy volume and distributions.
Sincerely
Carolyn NoviceSentiment: Hold
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Sure, you may be able to sell now and bounce back in on a 50 cent trade, but why do that here with Blackstone. There is huge interest in this company and with such a relatively low market cap I doubt it bounces around much lower. Someone mentioned ex-dividend, but is that the last dividend for the year or something? Of course not! And if for some strange stroke of luck BX were to fall more than a buck with the overall market on a bad day, just take that dry powder and buy more.
So, if you sell and sit there and wait for the stock to come in with JNJ or whatever, well, likely that neither one will this year, or at least not fall that much.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Thanks for the class..however what does it have to do with BX?
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13. Avoid the open. They see YOU coming sucker
14. 1-2-3-Drop-Up. Look for downtrends to reverse after a top, two lower highs and a double bottom.
15. Bulls live above the 200 day, bears live below. Sellers eat up rallies below this key moving average line and buyers to come to the rescue above it.
16. Price has memory. What did price do the last time it hit a certain level? Chances are it will do it again.
17. Big volume kills moves. Climax blow-offs take both buyers and sellers out of the market and lead to sideways action.
18. Trends never turn on a dime. Reversals build slowly. The first sharp dip always finds buyers and the first sharp rise always finds sellers.
19. Bottoms take longer to form than tops. Fear acts more quickly than greed and causes stocks to drop from their own weight.
20. Beat the crowd in and out the door. You have to take their money before they take yours, period.
Source: Hardrightedge
Sincerely,
Carolyn NoviceSentiment: Hold
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Want to trade successfully? Just choose the good positions and avoid the bad ones. Poor trade selection takes a heavy toll as it bleeds your confidence and wallet. You face many crossroads during each market day. Without a system of discipline for your decision-making, impulse and emotion will undermine skills as you chase the wrong stocks at the worst times.
Many short-term players view trading as a form of gambling. Without planning or discipline, they throw money at the market. The occasional big score reinforces this easy money attitude but sets them up for ultimate failure. Without defensive rules, insiders easily feed off these losers and send them off to other hobbies.
Technical Analysis teaches traders to execute positions based on numbers, time and volume.This discipline forces traders to distance themselves from reckless gambling behavior. Through detached execution and solid risk management, short-term trading finally "works".
Markets echo similar patterns over and over again. The science of trend allows you to build systematic rules to play these repeating formations and avoid the chase:
1. Forget the news, remember the chart. You're not smart enough to know how news will affect price. The chart already knows the news is coming.
2. Buy the first pullback from a new high. Sell the first pullback from a new low. There's always a crowd that missed the first boat.
3. Buy at support, sell at resistance. Everyone sees the same thing and they're all just waiting to jump in the pool.
4. Short rallies not selloffs. When markets drop, shorts finally turn a profit and get ready to cover.
5. Don't buy up into a major moving average or sell down into one. See #3.
6. Don't chase momentum if you can't find the exit. Assume the market will reverse the minute you get in. If it's a long way to the door, you're in big trouble.
7. Exhaustion gaps get filled. Breakaway and continuation gaps don't. The old traders' wisdom is a lie. Trade in the direction of gap support whenever you can.
8. Trends test the point of last support/resistance. Enter here even if it hurts.
9. Trade with the TICK not against it. Don't be a hero. Go with the money flow.
10. If you have to look, it isn't there. Forget your college degree and trust your instincts.
11. Sell the second high, buy the second low. After sharp pullbacks, the first test of any high or low always runs into resistance. Look for the break on the third or fourth try.
12. The trend is your friend in the last hour. As volume cranks up at 3:00pm don't expect anyone to change the channel.Sentiment: Hold
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not today...
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