Good post, hope you are right about new lows in the first quarter, and its already in the rear view mirror. Do have the right price in mind yet? I'm all in with three buys. In order, 25%@83, 25%@81, 50%@79 range. Being an optimist I have my sale order in @ $125. Nice opening step ups the past few days. Good Fortunes
Agree, for all the reasons you point out, and adding the ever present geopolitical issues where the few mines are now. Price squeeze could be big and within a few years. Just doubled up this morning at 78.55. Good Fortunes to you.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I noticed that demand has been increasing in the last 3 years for Pt in auto, industrial and jewelry, and the overall supply has been dropping. And the price of PLG metals have dropped o where for example 70% of the mines are no longer worth operating. Anglo announced in Dec it was planning to cut 85,000 jobs and sell assets. After mines shut down the supply should diminish significantly. I would give it a few years maybe and then there will be something akin to a demand/supply price squeeze and as I recall, it is difficult to restart an operation that was shut down so it would be years before supply could be ramped up again to meet demand. It could be China fears and the strong dollar had something to do with it but at some point, where fear is a factor, a logical consideration should be viewed as a potentially valid alternative (alternative to stampeding, screaming and pulling hair, and jumping off cliffs).
Enough to last all the world's needs for just one year. Compare that to gold, already enough mined to last the world 50 years. Picked up at 83 today and plan to hold until 2017. Good Fortunes
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I don't know the long-term price of platinum as I haven't spent a lot of time understanding the supply versus demand dynamics. Don't know a lot about the cash cost and the percent of industry profitable at various price points. I don't know the demand or recycling. From a macro perspective, the market seems to believe that the economic divergence between the US and the rest of the world has maxed out and therefore the US Dollar has topped out. The economist I follow does not believe global trade has stopped falling and has the jury out on whether the trade weakness and manufacturing weakness starts to impact the broader US economy (despite the good holiday season we are likely to get). I think there is downside risk to global growth and US growth. I think real rates will continue to rise in the US as we are in a rising rate environment with a weak economic outlook (over six months). I think the commodity super cycle still has room to fall. When I search google on platinum miners and their troubles I see a few stories, but not as many as I would expect to see if we are hitting a bottom. Platinum appears to be moving up in the short term but I wouldn't be surprised to see platinum making new lows in the first quarter of next year. I'm holding off any investment in platinum for a while longer but I do not have the "right" price in mind. Just my two cents.
Looking at the British pound 546.66 per oz. and knowing the Dollar may be ready to run, we could see Pt trading around 600.00 in just a few months. The great exodus from platinum ETF's and VW's diesel
debacle ( more Pt does not solve their nitrogen issue in fact going forward they claim to need even less ) could be just enough pressure to get Pt in the 500.00 range. Catalyst technology advances continue to decrease the amount needed for the chemical industry as well as more focus on recycling. So, would this be a nice opportunity to acquire physical Pt for long term hold? After all, it is possible Pt may never see 1,000.00 oz again
and well picked stocks seem to great returns. Anyone willing to share their thoughts?
I just read that all platinum mined to date is about a 10 ft. cube (1000 cubic feet).
Recycling of Pt has become more efficient too. These prices in the 800s, much less even below 1000, especially if continuing for 12 months plus, will mean that most mines will have to close, except those with maybe near surface, and open pit decent grade producing mines (a minority). Not sure how that will impact prices, maybe not at all. If recycling is so efficient, and it can be bought from hoarders, maybe we don't need to mine it anymore. At lower prices it just won't be worth mining so we will have to get used to a lack of supply eventually. Analysts have been overly optimistic in the last few years. It seems to be a guessing game.
Well thats the first time I've dead on the money. LOL I do think platinum will head even lower over the next few month (6-24) as the world economy looks bleak, technology advances on electric vehicles, Bad press from VW diesel problems and the risk of some very serious military action from the whole world. Buy your platinum at a lower price later.
GO WORLD !
Weak global economy means poor industrial demand for metal. Rising interest rates in the United States means less investor demand for non-cash producing assets (rising real rates). Both of these are conspiring to strengthen the US Dollar which also pressures prices. Perfect storm for an industrial precious metal.