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Molycorp, Inc. Message Board

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  • If he thinks the debt holders will recover $1.7B, they he should be all over the unsecured bonds, what is that? A 25+ bagger?

  • Reply to

    What Can We Expect to See Next from MCP?

    by isabellalbannister Jun 25, 2015 9:24 PM

    Hope you got on board, they just delivered another great looking report to members tonight.

  • Yeah, the way Oaktree is somehow holding the cards is a bit of a spanking to the Senior debt. It is hard to believe they are getting moved off the top priority line. I would have thought that their legal position would be strong, and the courts would favor that.

    To me it is crazy that putting $22 million in is allowed to rearrange the existing priorities.

    If the Senior was to maneuver to get back to a primary recovery position, which is where they should be, then they would be in a position to recover much more than 10-cents-on-the-dollar. Maybe not parity, but not the bath the current price says.

  • That "under-priced" debt fell below a dime on the dollar today. Oaktree is running this show. That's what they do. Hard to believe that anyone could postulate that the senior secured could recover anything close to parity.

  • If you think the debt holders will recover $1.7B, you should be all over the senior secured bonds that traded at less than 10 cents on the dollar today. That's a 10 bagger on the secured portion of that $1.7B debt. Easy money, no?

  • You will get all of it, buy as many shares as you can, it is obviously a no brainer.
    You must be a genius for seeing the value while the market still is totally clueless.

  • Total assets $2,494,784,000.00
    Total debts $1,786,196,000.00
    Number of shares of common stock 278,032,526

    Debt holders will get all of the $1,786,196,000.00
    Still left about $700Million; who gets this $700Million?

  • Smart move, these guys have been doing an amazing job of identifying the best new plays before they take off.

  • Reply to

    What Can We Expect to See Next from MCP?

    by isabellalbannister Jun 25, 2015 9:24 PM

    The only thing that could possibly ruin a beautiful Summer day is it also being Monday.

  • The Denver Post (Continued):
    The target production was 20,000 metric tons a year, but the mine produced 4,769 tons in 2014, according to company filings.
    "This is common in the mining industry, delays and problems in execution," analyst Starke said.
    And by the time the mine was producing, prices had collapsed.
    Molycorp production costs at Mountain Pass were about $20 a kilogram, while the rare earth market basket was selling this year for about $7 a kilogram, Tahuti Global's Moreno said.
    Three things had happened to burst the rare earth price bubble, analysts said.
    Rare earth users were drawing down their stockpiles rather than buying and in May, China lifted its export restrictions to comply with a ruling from the World Trade Organization.
    And faced with the sky-rocketing prices, manufacturers had found substitutes or ways to use fewer rare earths, said Alex King, director of the Critical Materials Institute at the federal Ames Laboratory in Ames, Iowa.
    "Cerium is used in polishing glass and silicon wafers," King said. "It used to be used just once, but companies are now collecting it and reusing it. That has cut the demand by 70 percent."
    Cerium is one of the prime rare earths coming out of the Mountain Pass mine.
    Makers of fluorescent lights and automobiles have also found substitutes for rare earths.
    Molycorp's Bedford told analysts this past March that sales of rare earths for lighting, once 40 percent of the industry's revenues, were "in decline."
    "So very quickly we went from a shortage of rare earths to an excess of rare earths," King said.
    In March 2012, at the height of the market, however, Molycorp bought Canadian rare earth processor Neo Materials Technology Inc. for $1.1 billion in a cash and stock deal.
    "It was a top-of-the-market price," said CRT Capital's Starke. "They overpaid." He estimated the Neo Material's current value at about $600 million.

  • The Denver Post:
    The short-term loan will also give the company time to negotiate with the competing creditors for a bigger, long-term loan.
    "It is a fight over the good parts of the company," said CRT Capital Group senior analyst Kevin Starke . "It will be a complicated bankruptcy."
    How Molycorp landed in this state involves a dispute between Japan and China over islands in the East China Sea, leaking tanks at a mine in California's Mojave Desert and the purchase of a Canadian rare earth processor at perhaps too hefty a price.
    And then there is the problem that Molycorp's rare earths were not the rarest and thus not the most valuable.
    The price run-up was the result of a couple of factors, analysts say. In 2009, China, which produced 97 percent of the world's rare earths, imposed export restrictions.
    Then in 2010, Japanese officials claimed China held up rare earth shipments during a territorial dispute between the two countries over eight islands in the East China Sea.
    "That set off a frenzy of stockpiling of rare earths, which drove up the price even more," said Luisa Moreno, a senior analyst with Tahuti Global in Toronto.
    The price of praseodymium oxide, an element used in aircraft engines, rose more than tenfold between 2009 and 2011 to $248 a kilogram. Last week, it was selling for about a third of the 2011 high.
    It was in this climate that Molycorp launched its 2010 initial public stock offering
    "The market was very favorable for financing," Moreno said.
    Molycorp was pouring money — including $1 billion in private equity — into upgrading and restarting Mountain Pass, the largest rare earth mine in the U.S.
    The project ran into a string of problems from struggling with impurities in one processing plant to leaky tank liners in another.
    The liners had to be replaced on nine tanks "due to safety and product quality concerns," Molycorp CEO Geoff Bedford told analysts in March.

  • Now that even the biggest idiots have finally realized that the Molycorp stock is worthless, pumpers now going to pump and dump the senior secured debt. Pumpers love pumping and dumping Molycorp.

  • Reply to

    What Can We Expect to See Next from MCP?

    by isabellalbannister Jun 25, 2015 9:24 PM

    Smart move, these guys have been doing an amazing job of identifying the best new plays before they take off.

  • At a glance, the 15-cents-on-the-dollar looks like a steal. The Senior is in a primary position for a bunch of the assets. Not all of the assets, but a lot of them.

    I would need to look closer at the current ranking of claims and assets. But here is a back of the envelope, without ANY checking ... all memory and deduction:

    $150 million. Oaktree, secured by Chlor-Alkali and CoGen. Priority moved up by new loans
    $100 million. Oaktree, unsecured, but moved up by the new loans
    $22 million. Oaktree new loan. Possibly rising to much higher. Would be at the top priority
    $650 million. Senior Secured debt. Claims against a lot of MCP assets. Might be secondary now.
    The rest of the debt is unsecured, and in lower priority.

    So, say Oaktree puts in another $150 million total. And the company is run at minimal levels, Mt Pass mothballed, and breakeven to small losses interim business. If the liquidation plan raises exactly $400 million, and Oaktree is now at the front of the line, they get repaid and the Senior gets nothing. If there is $500 million raised in liquidation, then that extra $100 million pays the Senior debt at 15-cents-on-the-dollar.

    That seems pretty likely. And if the Senior debt manages to keep higher priority than Oaktree, they can easily get higher recovery.

    To really answer the question, you have to have the debt claims against bankrupt Molycorp organized by priority ... and the priority might be changing with the bankruptcy loan provisions. And then you have to have a list of assets and a liquidation price-tag (liquidation means cheap). I'm not at all good at figuring liquidation prices.

    But yeah, that debt seems under-priced with only a half-a$$ed valuation attempt. And it doesn't take into account that Oaktree seems to be front running things in a way that is a bit worrisome.

  • Reply to

    Molycorp makes me Horn E!

    by cokefueledwallstreet Jun 22, 2015 4:01 PM

    cb_cb280 and his alter ego pumper CB_CB480 make me so Horn E!

  • Reply to

    Molycorp makes me Horn E!

    by cokefueledwallstreet Jun 22, 2015 4:01 PM

    what a sicko you are BUG... nothing funny about this comment no matter how many times you change your fake Id name and repeat it.... just further proves what a deranged psychopath you are

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Molycorp makes me Horn E!

    by cokefueledwallstreet Jun 22, 2015 4:01 PM

    Molycorp's bankruptcy makes me so....HORN E!

  • Reply to

    CB480 this one for you.

    by cb_cb280 Jun 25, 2015 8:15 AM

    CB480:
    ''Prerequisite reading: BEAR WARNING & NOB EDUCATION 101

    Part A is directed towards the BUGS, SE & GREEDY SHORTS

    Part A:

    They constantly ask for paper write downs as if this bookkeeping function has any real meaning to PPS. Last year MCP wrote off $250 million plus ..... I say so what its mostly just tax BS in the final reckoning.

    However, in total unfairness to the long side these same Shorts like to say the current debt holders are only worth 20 - 30% of original values yet continue to say the MCP debt load is $1.7 Billion .....

    well I call time out .... if we are going to write off meaningless long Goodwill then I say lets address the debt the same way ..after all our GAAP is double entry.. todays debt load value is really worth only $340 million to $510 million right?

    Funds like apollo scooping up $120 million in original paper value of the 2016's paid very little for that paper not because they want to BK MCP that would be stupid. Apollo isn't about to wait years in a BK court sale on an abandon moth balled specialty REE mine to maybe get something back. Instead they want equity and a nice quick return on their original investment so they are LONG MCP too.

    I say Molymet largest share holder and largest debt holder has been buying up all the 20 -30% paper being sold and will at some point exchange it for equity say 50% of MCP . Its not in Molymet's best interest to dilute share prices beyond where we are either since hey hold over 45 million. Molymet first entered the scene @$30 a share and still has a cost basis of over $13. Bears ignoring Molymets $1 Billion investment presence is a fatal mistake to shorty PIGS

    MCP with longer term, lower rate debt of say $400 million makes this a profitable company which surges PPS higher.

    The smart shorts have been leaving in droves this past year dumping positions on the newbie Bears who are the new bag holders .. this will be a brutal death blow to those shorts in under $10.00 a share..PIGS''

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • this plan already in the works dude except it won't cost $2 billion since open market debt is being bought at 10 - 20 cents on the dollar as the shorts like to point to.... this deal gets done for around $500 million backed by SBA at less then 3% @ 20 year term ....PPS goes to $10 overnight

    DIE BEARS DIE !!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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