I cannot doubt your enthuiasm for the stock. In fact I admire the faith you have and although we differ in our perspectives this volatility has been interesting. I remain short for now but wish you amd all the longs well. Enjoying the debate
Once MBLX proves demand it can explore things like a JV with Wacker in using their TN facility, Working with Wacker in the EU, Working with whoever took over the Antibioticos site in Leon as it appears the new owner is currently pursuing only duplicating the failed antibiotic drug manufacturing the previous owner was doing, work with Gadea somewhere else, Dow, BASF, ADM again :) (given the published patent for using ethanol), etc,
MBLX doesn't need to be profitable in the short term to crush the shorts. But it does need to prove there is demand for their new product focus. A success pilot in a large PVC related construction product company would do that.
There are recent examples in related factories of companies building factories on pre-sold product. If there is a chance to go this route for factory 2 I'm extremely happy they didn't get more financing in this round.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
KiOR seems like a lot less relevant example than is AXDX. Oracle Investments, Schuler, and Strobeck invested and continued to buy more later. I think the stock went from $0.50 (their effective financing price) to around 30. The stock is over 19 today.
So the same guys, with far stronger knowledge than I have from the outside on MBLX bought a lot more. Why would they do that? You seem to be arguing that they are doing it solely to protect their investment. This makes little sense to me as MBLX is debtless and could be split along 2-3 business lines and sold off. You don't double down in this case unless there is a clear path to turning it around. If there isn't an obvious path these guys would be worried about how future financing is arrived at.
In the case of AXDX it seems their growth has been IP (patent success) based. In MBLX's case you have a recent pivoting to new opportunities in PHA as an additive to PVC (make PVC products more stable, flexible, out of more recycled content, less toxic), a new form of Latex coating (making packaging products perform better and more recyclable), and in PLA (as an additive to allow PLA to perform much better/ enter additional markets). The first two I mentioned likely have recent IP filings associated with them. In the PVC side for construction materials MBLX seems to have it's 2 largest pilots going on now. All of these efforts are around specialty chemicals where MBLX might be able to sell at a premium through giving final products better performance or cost benefits.
While we clearly have no clue on how to size the opportunities MBLX is working on, if MBLX can quickly base load the contract production facility MBLX expects to have online in 2015 (2.5 - 5KTPA) it also is then in great position to negotiate how it goes about factory #2. I have said I think they need to be at around 12.5 - 15KTPA to be profitable as a whole. There was no need to finance all of that capacity now.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Normey every aspect of your overview is logical, but I believe not entirely rational based on the facts. They have not secured anything except an interim funding that will not even get them 12 months. They need to raise further funding so the short interest will continue knowing that this is the case. Existing investors had two choices, walk away or follow on with an expectation of good news that will provide other investors to come in and support. The lack of institutional investors in the round suggests nothing otherwise.
To say this is unprecedented is incorrect insofar as Vinod Khosla, Bill Gates et all followed on their investment in Kior in the latter part of last year for $100m and by March of this year Khosla had to cough up another $25m or walk away. No one else would come forward. Now as recently as September 15, George Soros, on The Street mentioned that he had taken a position in the 2nd quarter (on the open market) and the price shot up. The very same day Kior released their SEC filing on confirmation that they fail to meet NASDAQ rules and so will delist in October. I wonder if Soros got out in the momentum trades that shot the share up 22% on the day.
You might say that I am comparing apples and pears. But I do not base my negative perspective of MBLX on Schuler and gang jumping in, but rather that no one outside considered it worthy of a punt. If not them where would they be now?
It should not be said that management has been busy the past two years restructuring the company's finances. It was during Eno's administration that Schuler was engaged to consider the company's refinancing difficulties. Schuler and his group have provided the $25 million for the company to continue operations. Schuler should be given the credit for solving the financing problem not management. It has been two years since ADM pulled the plug on MBLX. The stock price falling to 40 cents a share!!! What does that mean!!!! So what management have you been doing? How about a little transparency. We are WAY OVER DUE for some answers !!!
Normey, I agree with your assessment. They have such great potential if only they could get it to market. It's so exasperating for us in waiting this out!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I don't know of MBLX ever having a tonnage scale pilot at any place in the past. There were rumorors of a coke bottle cap project and certainly there were hopes (mine especially) for the mulch film to turn into a large business for MBLX but the 2 PVC related projects are something different.
We haven't been waiting years for PHA to be successful as an additive to PVC because that usage is relatively new to MBLX. They claim to have 2 tonnage scale pilots going on now within PVC construction related business. If have no idea if that is bendable /recyclable piping, industrial carpet backing, decking material, helping PLA in a market they aren't performing well I n alone, or replacing Phthalates in something. But unlike replacing something 1 for 1 and hoping the green story builds a business case, here they are trying to justify PHA as an additive to improve performance, reduce costs, or give a product an ability to sell where previously banned. Given the lack of details, it's very tough to guess volumes but I'm hoping some trial (s) will be successful and disclosed.
What is new is the speciality chemicals focus on MBLX's side (if product is as advertised) would allow them to focus on fewer prospects but ones that buy in bulk and justify on value added. For example, the most recent product development is in latex coatings for packaging. In that case you aren't selling to Zoe Beach Toys but to whoever makes packaging for multiple companies. Allowing Starbucks or McDonalds to better compost or recycle their packaging and having the packaging perform better is a big sale. The Trex deck I have (in New England) is a pos that almost immediately weathered getting this dirty Sandy sort of feel. If PHA can really stabilize/lock the chemicals in the synthetic decking materials then they will sell a lot of the stuff.
I agree there are few successes to point to beyond IP filings but what they are aiming to execute makes sense and should be lucrative if they are right.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Unfortunately Normey, this is the same "new factory and/or success at the large scale pilots going on in PVC" that we have been waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting on FOR YEARS now !!!!!!!
Per the 9/15 NASDAQ report short interest in MBLX was at 4,495,233 shares. There is a surprise in that which deserves focus. The short position is now higher than it has been since mid May and over 200,000 shares higher than 2 weeks prior. The days to cover went down but due to a temporary surge in volume.
Why does this matter? Well my assumption was there was a short squeeze going on during the huge volume day. That prior assumption is now in question as this report includes that period and short interest ended up higher. So who bought? I also have not seen any indications of insiders selling.
In short, with fundamental news on a new factory and/or success at the large scale pilots going on in PVC, do we finally see a true short squeeze?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Meh, the tax dog doesn't wag the business tail. MBLX success will be 100% reliant on anyone want to buy their product, which as of yet, no one does. But, I think most people are here as speculative buyers, so price action doesn't mean much to people here. As a day trader, though, it's a different conversation.
When companies start receiving tax incentives, green subsidies and laws are passed banning petro plastics there will be no argument over price difference.
Scott does have a valid point insofar as there is no quarter in the history of this company where they have produced any product that they have been able to sell for a profit. There is confusion that selling a dollar for a dime makes sense and justifies sales.
It shows there most definitely is a market for PHA and it is likely to be growing significantly over the next few years. There is one small catch and that is a need to produce it at a price where you can sell it for a profit.
Until that situation arises this is over priced.
There's no competitors for them though....because there's no market haha. I read back through loads of articles on these guys the last few year, most say how silly this company is. I give them props for trying something new, but if the no one wants the tech, it doesn't matter. The company isn't ready to be public, should be private to stop this kind of depreciation pre success story.
I'll be waiting for next substantial "news" to short more heavily.
I'm a little surprised there aren't more people on this board saying how this is "healthy consolidation." Every time I read that, it's time to short lol.
Looks like MBLX is making some consolidation and will either break up or down. We shall see Wednesday. HomeRunAlerts will most likely alert it if it breaks out.
Hay dagiw many here are reeding , 6,000,000 shares from In side , we're bought u think he's doom, out side got. 25,000,000 you think there doom , and what if were sold to some other company for big money , u did not think about that , or if we partner with some other company, theres many options out there . People just laid out a lot of money , to see mblx make it good luck to all . Strong buy