I hear you. 1 1/2 hours into the session we show a bid of 3.40 and an ask of 3.52 with a volume of 600 shares traded.. Bleak right now with no news to create demand.
We have to look at the clues ( 2 were mentioned in my prior post) and then muster up a huge dose of hope.
The problem for many of the truly long longs like yourself is we bought into a stock being touted by some as the potential "stock of the decade" in late 2010 magnifying the disappointment.
Dagiw made a good point that insiders can't legally purchase on significant news that the public is not privy to. I take the position that they simply believe Shaulson more then Dagiw when he says they "are excited about the commercial progress" and their plan to "significantly increase production is on schedule" and "remember no news is not bad news"..
This is a unique stock because each side (short or long) have real reasons to believe they are right. I guess we'll all know soon enough.
Good luck to you. I have enjoyed your spirited posts.. I hope your next post expresses great relief.
Wrutka, if only you knew how many CC's I've been through, Parole..Parole!!, I had high hopes with the appointment of J Shaulson, where are we now shy of two years in office, I bet much more than Ilove's home and farm on this, can't seem to be able to get out with near zero demand, next CC could bring good news, if not, Shaulson should move on
Jeff You couldn't hang in there for one more quarterly CC in a few weeks?
I don't know how anyone could discount the impressive insider buying in June. That fact along with the Honeywell alliance would indicate that MBLX does have a future. They seem to be finding ways to stay afloat and the longer they hang in there the closer they are to that future.
We all understand how no news on progress translates into less hope for MBLX's survival. You start playing the what if game. What if that Honeywell alliance really is "PR hype"?
I think the fact that the VP of Marketing & Corporate Communications, Lynne Brum purchased over 14K shares and COO Johan Van Walsem purchased 12K shares on the open market last month would lead one to believe the Honeywell partnership is not empty hype. Who would have a more realistic perspective then the people in those 2 positions?
Jeff, for what it is worth, I wish you the very best. This board has seen some good debate long and short, but always interesting. Will miss your input.
After years of anticipation and disappointment , I have to look some where else, I really thought J, Shaulson was going to change things but I guess after 18 months of waiting and the share price dropping to 50% of what it was when he took over leaves much to be desired, best of luck to the remaining longs, one day it may happen.
30-06-2015 09:01 | By: Laura French | 0 comments
On August 31, the Reinier de Graaf Hospital in Delft occupies a new building in use. A new Pharmafilter ensures sustainable waste treatment plant.
The new Tonto-grinder 3 is quieter, better insulated, energy efficient and prevents clogging. Combined with a new treatment process millers from August 31, 2015 the entire construction waste. According manager Facility Services Robbert Jan van der Ent Braat, the replacement at a good time. The current Pharmafilter plant was originally a test installation and only works for nearby building.
The test installation on the site of the Reinier de Graaf Hospital to invest several hospitals inspired a Pharmafilter. According to van der Ent Braat the commissioning of the new system will have the same effect. "These new and advanced Pharma Filter and Tonto will soon attract a lot of interest," says van der Ent Braat in a press release. "Reinier de Graaf and Pharmafilter are positively condemned to each other. Here in Delft, this revolutionary system, after all started. "
Reinier de Graaf Hospital took in 2012 as the first hospital worldwide Pharmafilter in use. Using the sustainable waste management system, the hospital reduces the amount of dirt and transports CO2 emissions. In addition, the system provides clean water, electricity and heat back to the hospital.
The cost of the new Tonto amount #$%$ 16,500. The maintenance contract with Pharmafilter costs #$%$ 995 per year per grinder.
Lego uses about 13-15mm pounds per year . A PLA +PHA combo of 90/10 would be about 1.3 to 1.5mm pounds of PLA or about 2-5mm dollars. This would be ramping up over the next 15 years ( -2030) so the immediate usage -if it was PHa +PLA and exclusive to MBLX PHA would be in the initial phase about 500K per year, Nice to have but not exactly the killer r app we need,
If Honeywell were so solid where is the press release that goes with a purchase order? If there is a purchase order, unlikely because that is a material event, then where is the funding for production for such a sizable order? Why were they not investing in this round when they already had exclusivity? Honeywell is PR hype.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Tell that to Honeywell who completed the due diligence report for a partnership with MBLX. I'm sure when they got to the section " Financial Soundness" they just skipped over that part after they read all Dawig's ideas on yahoo messageboard. :)
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Now I know why isitlegal so confidently predicted a .28 cent stock price. He must have applied the IBITDA accounting formula. It all makes sense now after reading your last sentence.
We don't need complicated accounting criteria to know that MBLX is not profitable at this point in time. No one is investing based on current financials.
I would view this company more like a Biotech company which I'm sure you realize as an Industry displays higher then average P/E due to resources spent on R&D.
Either the big investors know something we don't which is good for longs or they invested based on the exact data with which you conclude they can't possibly succeed.
In the later case they obviously disagree with your conclusions.
Should we base any credibility on people who just bet millions on this company or someone who responds to any positive signs with aggressive negativity?
I think Normey made the wisest comments recently when he said, "None of it matters much in the long term, the co. will be made or fail based on success of additives to PVC , PLA & barrier coating markets."
I agree with Normey and suggest that we give it a rest Dagiw. Just let it play out.
I am short and I outlined my reasons for being so. I have been short Kior, Gevo, Bioamber, Cereplast and Amyris and interestingly enough there has been a lot of intelligent wealthy investors making very dumb decisions on these companies. Companies go bust. It is natural. Sometimes emotional attachment to an investment is a barrier to seeing the opportunity when things go bad. Shorting has a limit how far it can drop, but unlimited to the potential for recovery. Therefore making returns from shorting rewuires as much, if not more research, because of the risks. I just see MBLX has having little chance of success based on the current situation. So the stock is worth nothing close to its current value and will fall. I can't predict when, just that based on SEC filings, CC's to date, it is inevitable unless there is a proof point in the business model that suggests a P/E in excess of 10 that requires EBITDA of $10m when they don't have visibility on revenue of $1m on negative margin.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Really what is your point? If what you are saying is so obvious then it does not need to be said.. Kohsl;a owns all of KIOR his plan all along was to lend them money , benkrupt them and them trade his debt for full equity This is not Scholars MO... Again he is a medical technology investor, EVERY other company is in the medical field. There is something here we are not privy too. But my gut tells me that within 6 months we will. Nothing is over until its over, Not even Antibioticos..
Jenny, of course you are absolutely correct. In the scheme of things on a macro level, it is a small amount for a new polymer. However on a micro level, as in the case where it is when you have spent 96% of it and only have less than 1 years cash in the bank and you don't have a viable business to show for it does the view get focused. I do not dispute that great technologies take great risk. Apple were not the first with a smartphone. Look at the investment made by Blackberry and what about the giant Nokia, now a part of Microsoft. Microsoft were not the first software operating system, but with MHG, Kaneka, Mitsubishi, Samsung, Wacker, such is the competition in the PHA space and all of these companies have a greater chance of survival and security for consumers of PHA as an additive because they have either viable businesses, or because the PHA forms a small part of their business. That cannot be said for MBLX with just enough cash to survive as day to day working capital without any capital expenditure for production. 10 years ago MBLX was an important pioneer, sadly that is not the case today. Every competitor has learned from their expensive mistakes.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
$400m is nothing for a company who is devloping a new polymer. If you look at this history of polymer develpment, this is not a big number.
Sentiment: Strong Buy