Easily the dumbest comment of 2015 on this board. Shaulson and his team are the only reason to stay invested in MBLX. Pure and simple--it was maneuvering a battleship in a bathtub to convert this company from a commodity to specialized model. Specialized has much higher margins--but it takes longer to meet the needs of specific customers. I will admit frustration that "things have been getting close" for more quarters than I would have preferred.
That said--it does appear to be close. At least in terms of PHA additives in flooring. I would like to know where you're going to find a CEO like Shaulson with expertise in finance and specialized chemicals. He is heavily financially motivated to get this share price up.
The "big unknown" as far as I can tell is "What is Yield 10 really worth?" The correct answer is what some large ag company is willing to pony up in order to be a part of it--but admittedly, I don't know whether this is the savior of the company or something that's too far away.
But get rid of Shaulson? Idiotic. You might as we have fired Urban Meyer for losing against Michigan State.
The Metabolix;s of the world, are high risk investments, that one enters into knowing or should knowing that either all or a substantial part of their investment could disappear.
The one "constant" in the US Tax Code has been that capital losses are first applied against capital gains and then any excess losses can only be deducted up to $3000.00 (well the holding period for long/short term status has varied) can be used to offset ordinary income. on any one year. So we cannot look to Uncle Sugar
to recoup our investment losses
No one likes to lose money, and perhaps my unrealized loss position pales in comparison with yours.
I will just say that I had some what I like to call "risk" capital that I was willing to lose in its entirety,in hopes of striking it "large" Metabolix was my choice.
It is still a going concern, and as long as it is I'm in the game
. I guess I will follow the simple advice as given by World Wrestling entertainer Bo Dallas, "all you got to do is BOLEEEVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Eno failed us but after two years of buying time and a dramatic decline in share price, Joe Shaulson (with all due respect) is completely incompetent and should leave management of this company to more capable hands, how the board kept him for so long is really puzzling, share price is at 20% of what it was when he took over
If this stock had a larger liquidity I would suspect either computer trading at the end of the trading session due to higher liquidity of stock available at or close to the end of the trading day. This is a phenomenon that has been going on for the last few years in larger index traded stocks. However, this is not a high volume stock and even with the same thing happening yesterday it could be price manipulation, for whatever reason. As to what that might be for there can be all sorts of speculation what might be driving that. Or it could be nothing but coincidence.
It's such a low volume stock that anything can happen. The news is not out yet, which is good because when it gets out the stock will jump up again. But of course I'm sure as I do, others know the news as well.
I don't have an S guess but I'm going to throw out LG Hausys. They seem to have an interest in PHA and have a certified flooring line with minimum recyclate content requirements.
Can someone please make some sense out what happened in the last 4 minutes of trading today?
Having concluded that today's trading was a no news, low volume nonevent, I decided to pull up the multi level Bid/Ask with 5 minutes of trading left in the day anyway. Noting an unimpressive 15K+ number of shares traded I figured I might as well watch the end of the day's trading.
To my amazement I watched the price jump from 2.05 to 2.14, blow through the 2.20's and 2.30's to sit at 2.42 with less then a minute to go. But of course as this stock is so capable of doing my "yeeesss!!!" in an instant sounded more like air coming out of a balloon as the price dropped to 2.14 at exactly 4PM on a 100 share lot.
What's the take away from this stock ending the week with 37% of the shares traded today coming in the last 4 minutes with an 18% jump only to end with a 1.9% gain on a 100 share transaction right at the closing bell?
I'm going to make myself a drink.
I completely missed or forgot the Samsung-sugar connection. Can you throw me a bone on this?
Dude, as always, thanks for the business/financing side breakdown.
You could be right, but doubtful it just went up due to a Vinyltec presentation. I think we'll hear what I already talked about. Seems some people got the same info...
I can't find it anywhere but there was a really interesting presentation at Vinyltec that suggested PHA is a miracle additive for decking. I think it substantially increased strength while allowing the manufacturers to use more wood powder and possibly recycled material. In any event, the end product comes out a lot better and without raising costs because cheaper material can be used in larger volume. Someone must find these slides. It seems like a big deal and isn't a rumor.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Looks like the cat is already out of the bag. Somebody knows what I know and they're trading on it.. Maybe we see 10 be year end?? Post split that's only a tad more than double. A horrible performance actually...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I have no idea where they are going to find production. I'm not an insider or even in this industry. It sounds to me from the call that MBLX will have their nameplate production capabilities at full capacity starting in 2016. That is 600,000lbs or so a year. But I think going down this path was what allowed them to have material for the carpet and decking clients (the 2.5-5KTPA site would have taken awhile to get going). If my understanding of their logic is correct, the CEO or COO made the right call here. (I reserve the right to change my mind on this if the carpet opportunities say no to MBLX based on having little production now).
I understand the next factory is to be 10KTPA and from there onwards I think they believe the best size is globally located 20KTPA plants. I might be reading too much into their plans but it feels like 10KTPA is easy to justify filling quickly, 20KTPA is more efficient when full(ish) but they don't have the cash to slowly build up production and have a money losing factory in immediate term.
There are examples in the larger industry where clients precommit to sales justifying a factory. Alternatively, MBLX had a relationship with the sugar side of Samsung in Korea. They also learned from the Leon disaster that they could cheaply convert retired antibiotic factories into making PHA because these factories have both production and recovery equipment. I bet the COO has a lot of options but what he must have is demand to help him quickly select the way to go.
I'm still wondering if Wacker will come back somehow as a potential partner. The developments on the Yield10 side and the way PHA greatly helps PLA makes me wonder if Cargill/NatureWorks wouldn't be a fascinating partner. Also could be extremely annoying to ADM and I'd like that.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
(Sorry if this appears twice, last submission didn't seem to make it)
1) The can add more shares by vote and sell to Aspire so raising the $20M is not an issue (consider how many shares are owned by a few investors).
2) The dilution is not mandated. MBLX has full control on timing in next 29+ months. I'm not certain they are compelled to sell any shares. Certainly if they are planning to sell some and are close to a big deal with either of 2 carpet manufacturers they have wouldn't have much incentive to sell shares now.
3) Furthermore, they have likely access to $15.6M if they win one of these deals in Q4 and it can be disclosed. Simply, at above $4 there is reason for those who funded the last round to execute their options. Oddly, if they are very high on the company's future they may even pay above market simply to get the clock going on long term capital gains. Beyond that, Schuller would send a signal that immediately pushed up his much larger holdings in the company.
4) If the company is trading at $10 (and an announcement of a couple of big clients and a concrete plan to expand production would do that), the sale to Aspire would only be 2M shares. Could be far smaller than that if the production partner ends up being cash additive in nature.
5) MBLX's future changes drastically on a few large client wins. They have stated they are in late trials in 2 industrial carpet opportunities and the younger of the two opportunities seems to now be testing on production equipment. The demand is what will drive things. There may be no need to sell anything to Aspire and I would argue the 300,000 shares to create this possible line of cash were shares well spent. The company needed this security and I think the CEO did a good job on it if all is being represented correctly.
6) Outside of carpet, there were substantial findings presented at Vinyltec which highly suggest massive immediate opportunity for MBLX within construction. Find those slides.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Of course they can raise $20m. They would need to increase the issue in the prospectus to do so unless they sell to Aspire all of the new issue at or above $3.07 The facts remain in my earlier post and logic implies further dilution to existing Longs.