I believe that Yahoo is now just listing the major direct holders who are insiders (people who have to file forms 3 & 4). Jack is probably outside that group because he doesn’t work for the company. If you sum up the Major Direct Holders and added in Jack’s estimated 15% then the numbers match with the line that says: % of Shares Held by All Insider and 5% Owners: 22%
I did a rather through search of SEC filings tonight and found Jack’s filings from a few years ago but didn’t find any changes to his Beneficial Owner status.
By the way, if anyone working at Metabolix is reading this board… IMHO, if you need to go after financing then you ought to check if some of your major holders want to invest… Mr Schuler paid a small fortune at extremely high prices to own 15% of your company; it would be nice to see him allowed to add up to 5% (dollar cost averaging down) without losing his voting status. It would also be great to see him allowed to have a seat on the board, but I can see why you might not be too excited about that idea.
Re: “it seems pretty clear that short interest is built up to get destroyed on any fundamentally good news”
That is part of the dream that keeps so many here… The products sound great on paper, the portfolio of patents have value, the licenses have value, the pipeline of upcoming products have value… If Shaulson announces a partnership, a merger, a sale or a smart financing deal then this one is: Off to the Moon! One of these days; it will happen :)
Question for the long term holders… Yahoo’s list of Major Holders no longer shows Jack Schuler: “Is this an error in their reporting or did he sell off his holdings in Metabolix?” I suppose there’s another possibility; he might have moved his shares into some sort of new investment vehicle like a trust or something else.
The last time that I looked Jack and family were nearly a 15% holders. Yahoo shows 22% with insiders, 28% with mutual funds and 36% of float held by mutual funds. If Jack still owns nearly 15% then he has the ability to influence the future. I once liked the fact that he was on our side; hopefully he still is :)
Possibly speculation but the event isn't just an after hours presentation. Interesting that the slight surge seemed to happen at around the time the first 1 on 1 meeting ended (Schedule on Roth website shows 1 on 1s going from 8 to 6 pacific time).
Could see this as a new investor who wanted to get a small chunk before the general presentation.
I can't tell you if this sticks (end of the day seemed like a nice sign but who knows), but it seems pretty clear that short interest is built up to get destroyed on any fundamentally good news.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover 2/28/2014 4,959,248 110,824 44.748863
2/14/2014 4,766,303 65,271 73.023288 1/31/2014 4,891,159 130,319 37.532202 1/15/2014 4,998,450 111,469 44.841615 12/31/2013 4,902,927 230,700 21.252393 12/13/2013 4,838,190 863,968 5.599964 11/29/2013 4,027,510 423,859 9.502004
The presentation isn't until today at 5:30 pm Pacific Standard Time so today's price increase is all speculation. By the way, you are right, this will be another opportunity for the public to learn more about the new CEO. Hopefully he's able to impress a few small cap analysts and investors.
Yeah, that was interesting...
To help build acceptance and boost technology going into PLA, Minnetonka, Minn.-based NatureWorks has hosted ITR as a bi-annual conference four times, inviting users, researchers, government experts and even competitors to talk about developments with the material.
Metabolix Inc. used the conference to introduce its bio-based PHA modifier for PLA users. While Metabolix has its own bio-based plastics on the market, it makes sense to target development with NatureWorks’ products as well, said Bob Engel, vice president for biopolymers. Wider acceptance and improved technology benefits all makers of bio-based materials.
The company’s modifier — which it refers to as a “plastifier” rather than plasticizer — improves flexibility within PLA while allowing it to retain its 100 percent bio-based feedstock. That improvement could, for instance, make it possible to produce a more flexible film that can still be composted, which would eliminate complaints about the “noisy” compostable bag for chips, Engle said. Other uses target its potential for non-wovens in the medical industry.
Elsewhere, potential growth is coming from global retail giants who are increasingly looking to more sustainable packaging in the products they put on their shelves, and PLA fits right into that market, said Tony Kingsbury, president of consulting firm TKingsbury LLC and a former Dow Chemical Co. global sustainability leader.
Target Corp. recently announced a product and packaging sustainability program emphasizing recyclability and recycled or renewable content. Consumer products maker Procter & Gamble Co. has its own a sustainability target for packaging and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. has set a goal of 0 percent of its packaging going to the landfill
“And if Wal-Mart says, ‘Here’s what I’m going to do,’ then it practically becomes global legislation,” he said.
jos, the difference this time is... Those who attend will be able to get first impressions of Joseph Shaulson and that will tell them a lot about whether or not Metabolix is just a lottery ticket or an investment. The quality of CEO can make a huge difference in to future of a company; first impressions can lead some investors to buy, sell or hold. Today's pop tells me that first impressions are favorable and that's good thing for us. You could be right; tomorrow the price may pullback to the price it was yesterday, but today we are getting a glimpse of the future. Personally, I expect the next conference call to be a lot more positive to any we've heard in years and this time we won't be watching Pinocchio's (Eno's) nose grow.
I often see it as a good sign when Roth is also investing in one of my investments so it’s good to see that management is presenting to Roth and it is also good to see that someone attending that presentation probably investing in Metabolix... Nice little pop today!
Today’s price isn’t a lock for new investors, but this company has enough intellectual property that today’s price is a fairly safe bet and the long term should not scare new investors. This company owns hundreds of patents, they have multiple FDA licenses, they still have a little cash and very little debt and they continue to develop interesting and to some very exciting new technology. The prior CEO clearly had probably getting all that to work in his favor; which could have been more his problem then the technology’s problem. The new CEO appears to be ready to do what it takes to succeed… IMHO, this combination of IP and new CEO makes every investment in Metabolix a bit like a lottery ticket but unlike a lottery ticket the odds are actually in your favor. Any of the technologies in Metabolix’s arsenal could double the share price overnight. The lineup of technologies have the potential to turn this into a multi bagger. The odds of others buying out the company to own its technology are extremely high… I’m not buying more because I already own more than enough but if I were short I’d be covering rather than praying for dilution and failure to washout the stock… LOL, it’s already rock bottom and there’s too much here for it to go much lower.
Anyone else here think that $1.40 goes to $3 before the end of the year?
Higher than 3?
Back below 1?
I’m looking forward to $3 and Beyond!
Hopefully much sooner than anyone here expects :)
May all your dreams come true...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thanks Norm keep it coming. I've been watching MBLX since $20 days. Finally managed to get some @ $1.20. GLTL today.
There have been some interesting comments about Natureworks lately. At the last presentation Peoples was at he made some comment about PVC additive leads coming from them. I see the two as now more complimentary than competitive...though one could easily argue Natureworks has reason to hope MBLX does not find financing and is therefore easily approachable for a takeover at say $3. In any event, PHA is looking like an additive to help PLA be more flexible and compostable without losing its clarity or hurting its cost too badly. PHA might not play well in consumer facing compostable bags by itself or in plasticware because it costs more and MBLX failed to standards set that require faster composting. PHA has a strong play in maritime, PVC perfomance additives, possibly mulch film, and MBLX may have an industrial chemicals play. These are areas they don't seem to compete with Natureworks. Arguably either Samsung or Natureworks/Cargill is a great suitor. (BASF or Dow makes sense as well).
But I see little downside in them working with Natureworks even if it helps Natureworks more. I'd rather be some form of growing player in a highly successful market than try to be King amongst a group of failures.
Am kicking myself a bit though. As discussed previously, on back to back days I was able to get some shares at .77 and .78 a share. However, each day I got about 10% of what I bid for. Certainly was cheap of me not to raise the bids. Bought a bunch more at 1.27 and now am left waiting out the FY2014 call to grade my purchase.
Still hope something useful will be said today after hours but given the timing (likely key execs are flying back tomorrow and so follow up on anything dropped would be stifled a bit) I now expect big news at once around FY2013 call.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Normey, I hesitated at 0.75, and doubled down at 1.07, but methinks we'll see a nice bottom-feeders heyday soon.
Best to all.
at Natureworks. Safe bet that if there is any news this is the partnership that will be announced.
Here's a quote from a written piece
"While Metabolix has its own bio-based plastics on the market, it makes sense to target development with NatureWorks’ products as well, said Bob Engel, vice president for biopolymers. Wider acceptance and improved technology benefits all makers of bio-based materials.
The company’s modifier — which it refers to as a “plastifier” rather than plasticizer — improves flexibility within PLA while allowing it to retain its 100 percent bio-based feedstock.
That improvement could, for instance, make it possible to produce a more flexible film that can still be composted, which would eliminate complaints about the “noisy” compostable bag for chips, Engle said.
Other uses target its potential for non-wovens in the medical industry".
Don't want to get hopeful but the last sentence is what many on the board have been taking about.
I agree with your thoughts and the timing of the announcement, but:
Makes sense if after all this time we still need to hype the story to a daytime audience. The thought of strategically spoon feeding this announcement to the analyst in advance of the public's drum roll is the same kind of clandestine behavior that has surrounded this company for years. If the announcement is worth a damn, who cares when it is announced? Don't worry if someone is watching. Trust me, they are watching. If you have good news, don't horde it. Share it. It will be recognized, because it has significance, not because it was announced when everyone was awake.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'm starting to back off my assumption that big things will be announced tomorrow. While I like the idea of doing a presentation before the FY2013 call with the new CEO...and one amounting to more than explaining why the new CEO is a great fit for MBLX's direction...I'm worried the timing is not right for releasing much new substance.
The show is late for the East coast and seems to be something more inline with the LD Microcap gathering from this past December. At that show MBLX (Eno) suggested the audience pay close attention to what they announce next in terms of production. Since then we've had the Gadea CEO spill that MBLX is going to partner with someone in the US but that is about it. Problem is, I don't know if the Roth gathering justifies spilling beans on something huge ahead of discussing it with the analysts that follow the stock.
In the LD Microcap example, it presented after hours on December 3rd, not much happened on the 4th and took off of the 5th. While I assume the volume and price surge was related to a leak that Eno was being replaced, I still wonder who ended up buying what State Farm left. It's not inconceivable that the purchasers were at that presentation. Regardless, while I'd like to see MBLX make a similar surge, I am now wondering if there is some incentive for MBLX to hold off until more eyes are on them.
This might be contrary to how I'd like to see it done but it seems to make sense that they would load up on announcements until the FY2013 call. Especially if the announcements aren't quite in condition to brag about yet.
Sorry to be all over the place on this.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I assume they have either successfully addressed financing or have something waiting to be executed while they try to see if they can find something better in the last 2 weeks. If they hadn't found financing I assume they would have filed for an extension on the FY2013 call.
They need money to comfortably get through 2014 to get the support of the outside auditors. I argue they actually need money to get through going into profitable production so it seems they must figure out manufacturing ... or at least a group of possible manufacturing paths to pick between in which all members of the group have potential to be realized before cash ends.
In any event, you need both production and cash figured out now. That gets them a qualified opinion by the auditors, a business plan analysts could forecast to a much better degree, and would allow MBLX to sell off existing inventory as well.
As for announcements before Roth, I really like the idea of another prevention of the new CEO before the FY2013 call. The first prevention he went to did a good job of explaining why his resume fits but it was mostly Peoples speaking. Now the new guy has a lot more time with the company without Eno there. Looking to forward to hearing him perform. Could be an opportunity to discuss either financing, production, or a new partnership. I assume announcements would be after market tomorrow and hopefully done better than the rubberized one at the last show.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
If MBLX had a commercially viable product, then why don't they have any major customers?
Why haven't they produced any new meaningful quantities since ADM gave them the finger?
If they had any commercial sized customers getting ready to sign a big deal, or new production coming on line - then why was Eno recently fired? Surely if there was good news on the horizon he'd still be the CEO?
Why do the analysts covering this stock still have consensus loss of $0.78 cents per share and only $3M to $6M in annual revenue projections?
Why isn't the stock trending up given new CEO is aggressively on the street trying to find someone to buy MBLX stock, buy the company, or sign a big deal? Any good news would have been leaked to a few people by now, and it doesn't take much to send this stock higher given nominal volume of shares that trade daily.
Each day that passes without announcing a new major customer increases the probability that massive dilution for existing shareholders is on the horizon. MBLX soon will have no choice but to sell substantial quantities of new shares at whatever price they can get on the open market, or sell the company to highest bidder. Only $15M of cash left, which is less than 7 months at the 2013 burn rate.
I can't wait to hear if new CEO opens opens the earnings call stating how their focus is on managing cash flow, which is how they've opened every quarterly call for a few years. They didn't earn vast majority of the cash they burn, since most of it came from ADM, secondary offerings, and gov't grants over the years. They never EARNED the cash - just stole it from shareholders, ADM, and the stupid gov't.
NORMEY, now that Ready has sold half of his position and it appears we're heading to the finishing line (why in the hell would you waste everyone's time next week at Roth without making an announcement !!!!), any final words?
Sentiment: Strong Buy