If only I had the psychic powers you attribute to me. To clarify I don't get it right all the time and my pedestal has been known to be below water many times. Don't forget I tipped SZYM and went at slightly below $6. Since then I have averaged down to $4.32. I also sold $2 covered December Shorts when it was slightly above $3 to limit losses and also to allow me to pull back some of the losses.
I went short AXDX at $22.30 and closed out at $19.30. It is still over valued but I will wait to see if there is a spike above $20 before I short again.
I have not shorted MBLX for a while though I have watched it head lower. The 135m of outstanding stock has the value for a speculative stock with a long time before any revenue appears to be still extremely high. I suspect unless there is news before year end it will drift into the next quarterly announcement through January below $0.35. They need to announce a consolidation to comply with the listing rules of trading above $1 for 10 consecutive days over a 6 month period. Compliance has not been met since the 7th July so some consolidation may need to be completed before year end to meet the 6 month deadline. This has already been agreed by stockholders at the last meeting.
I don't hold, nor am I short the stock but I would also not buy it right now either.
Guys, have faith , after they are done filling this so called large order they will bring it back up. We are very close , i have seen it happen too many times and i am not selling one share here!
Been away a while and not surprised this POS stock is on the way back down. Looks like we still have dagiw around, who has consistently been right about MBLX, and the only knowledgeable and sophisticated investor on this message board. I noticed Normey is also still around, and still drinking the Koolaid.
Dagiw - would you mind giving an update on what has happened at MBLX over past few months? Is stock going down to around 20 cents within next 12 months? Any meaningful commercial production in the near term? What's your top stock pick, and who would you be shorting other than MBLX?
Sentiment: Strong Sell
You are referring to this?: "we believe we are on-track to sign a manufacturing agreement during the fourth quarter of 2014 for production startup in later 2015."
Would be great to hear news soon.
The MMs are sure putting on the squeeze this morning. If we get a close above .50 today, u can bet the big news will be here within a few days. This sure looks like the last sweep before takeoff
Sentiment: Strong Buy
So you say this will go below $0.40 and yet your sentiment is hold!!!!!, the only way this is heading is up,Or have you forgotten that there is an imminent announcement on a partnership within the next 3 weeks!
Did anybody take heed with my warning 12 days ago? Want to know what is going to happen in the next ten? Then start marking my posts, people. I am not kidding around.
Before I mark it, could you provide any qualifications or time frame for your prediction such as "this is going below .40...... if they don't sign a manufacturing agreement by year end"?
While you're at it what do you think the stock price will be if they do announce a manufacturing agreement?
That last question is for all folks.
Normey you have always been a consistent supporter of the company and nothing you say in your comments are arguably incorrect. However it is all speculation on some future potential. Any revenue that has a reasonable possibility to breakeven is more than 2 years away. Before that so much more funding has to be brought in. The outstanding shares in issue are understated as 85m because the dilution of the last round had not been completed before the end of the 3rd quarter. So realiy now there are 135m in circulation. At $0.53 that puts the current value of $71m
The fact there is $20m+ left and after $300m has been invested into this company it is likely that there is some value above cash for some party that can do something with it. However it is hard to imagine that any goodwill value is no more than 100% above cash, bearing in mind that at the very least the company is projecting to still be losing $15m in OpEx going forward.
So year end therefore there is a good chance that there would be $15m+ in cash. Assuming there is a premium above that of a further 100% then the value at year end is potentially $30m or $15m above cash. This puts fair value for the stock at around $0.22.
Because the recent funding round was at $0.25c I suspect that there would be buyers always above $0.35
In terms of production, they claim they will be online by end of 2015. The last ballpark sizing of the plants they were considering was 2.5 to 5ktpa. At most, that has production at around 11m pounds per year. The pricing range they claim to be targeting in their new specialty chemical additive focus is $3 to $5 a pound. Margins are unknown. But the factory is seen as an initial plant. I guess it is feasible that they could have a profitable business at 5ktpa but I think the intention would be to show they have sizable demand and an obviously profitable business with expansion beyond the first factory. In short, I don't think they would be aiming to barely be profitable with a 5ktpa plant as much as getting something up and running quickly at 2.5 ktpa that proves a JV/merger/etc that gets them a large facility.
They have some inventory now and I believe a test facility to produce some additional pha. But with respect to the PVC trials, I don't know how fast construction applications move from trials to embedding in product. For example if they are working with outdoor decking (products currently suck leaching out dusty chemicals and degrading with exposure to light...and pha apparently helps solve this), or with bendable PVC, or with wire coatings, or with making PVC industrial carpet backing less toxic and more recyclable...in any event I imagine the trials bring substantial. Possibly they get multiple tonnage sized trials before big orders but I don't think they suffer much for not having industrial scale production before Q4 next year.
Sentiment: Strong Buy