Back in March your stated bottom was .28 which would be $1.68 considering the reverse split.
What factors influenced your upgrade?
IPL. I see you are winding the Longs up again. No one in their right mind, knowing a major dilution that has been flagged by management for the last 9 months, is inevitable and imminent, is going to buy, so the stock price is likely to be going lower ahead of that event.
Hard to imagine investors looking at progress over the last few quarters and feel confident that new investment would turn this into a profit generating company in the next few years without sight of a large buyer of finished product and large production capability with management demonstrating the ability to do so at a reasonable margin.
Normey, facts are the only reason why I remain short. They received a dispensation on the requirement not to have raised 12 month available cash, at the last $25m dilution at $0.25. They have to dilute with a new issue within the next quarter. Based on no commercial milestones, no production, other than 300 ton per year pilot, an overhead that exceeds current cash holding seems logical, as buy advice without knowing the future cost of the production plant, production cost of the pilot quantities which is subject to two stages in two separate locations, would be bad advice.
Even at $3.30 which is the target of a single analyst puts it at $0.55 in value at the old stock before stock consolidation has little chance of securing any new invest higher than previous. That means a new issue at or close to $1.50, if they can find some. They should be managing expectation, rather than trying to keep the price inflated far above fair value.
I hadn't seen that Cal State Chico information before. So in 2012 Itvwas confirmed that Mirel film degraded at a similar rate to plant material in water. I assume the microbeads are far smaller than film and have a larger percentage of surface area in contact for degrading than a film would. In short, they should have better results than the film tested back them. In any event, the Guardian article contains some really good news and Honeyweel seems to have time to prove it. The article title to Google is "California considering banning biodegradable microbeads from personal care products"
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I believe both Ardour and Jefferies (Jinming Liu and Alaurence Alexander) are still covering the stock. Both are listed as holds. Both were on the last quarterly call (though Alexander missed the one before that).
At the shareholders meeting there wasn't some form of major focus on microbeeds but it was discussed more in the previous quarterly call..which makes perfect sense unless you are the type to misrepresent facts. Part of the reason the microbeads thing was worthy of discussion is the recent exclusive partnership with Honeywell. At the shareholders meeting the microbeads thing was of more interest to shareholders in terms of what else MBLX might be doing with Honeywell.
I've yet to see reason for the drop today. The microbead issue in CA is a setback for a small niche market but conversely the delay in the ban might light a fire under MBLX/Honeywell to move faster to prove the technology (a nice benefit out of using PHA is the PHA ends up in the sludge of water treatment as opposed to plastics that float off with post treatment water. Much more rapid composting than other options is another benefit).
I'd argue the stock should have met NASDAQ requirements for relishing to major index at the close of trading yesterday but announced nothing so it spooked some unnecessarily by not immediately listing compliance to relishing. Either way it would be a dumb overreaction. Possibly the other analyst released low guidance.
None of it matters much in long term. The company will be made or fail based on success of additive to PVC, additive to PLA and barrier coating markets.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Reddy, if the management had based their entire growth strategy on microbeads, it would fail because the volume is not there. The fact that the high profile given to this in recent CC suggests that there is perhaps a last gasp at anything to stop the smaller stockholders from selling. The only analyst left to report is targeting $3.30. As I said in my earlier post, I am surprised that it has taken this long to begin to fall.
California bill passed by assembly bans all micro-beads not just plastic. And the manufacturers have dropped their objection. However the bill does not go into effect until 2020 and that gives enough time to prove PHA micropowders biodegradability and allow the law to be amended, this is about 75K pounds a year so not a lot in terms of dollars but never a good thing to have your product excluded in any jurisdictopn
just to clarify today is the ranking day but the ranking will let you know if you are eligible and given that many in the category have fallen we may have a chance given out mkt cap and float
While I don't know whether MBLX is effected by today's upcoming announcement on reconstitution it would be quite interesting if the reverse split was timed and necessary for MBLX to be reinstated in the 3000?? We will see this evening