Do I understand correctly that some contributors to this message board are comparing Cereplast to Metabolix? There are no reasonable comparisons.
Cereplast is a plastics compounder, using readily available low tech mixing equipment (such as Banbury mixers) to blend biodegradable polymers and fillers to produce finished plastic materials with improved biodegradability compared to petroleum plastics (polyethylene, polypropylene, et al). It is easy for them to purchase or lease a vacant building, and install new or used Banbury mixers to increase their capacity. Cerp's web site refers to polylactic acid (PLA) as a major component, which they are likely purchasing from the Cargill JV with the Japanese.
Metabolix is a high tech company developing improved processes for polymers and chemicals via biotechnology. Full scale production facilities, such as the Metabolix/ADM Iowa plant, are built from ground up, and usually take 2-3 years until completion.
I am from the chemical industry and a Metabolix investor, and view this investment as "long term". Cereplast might also be a winner, since the price is so low. However, my personal experience with penny stocks has not been good.
Answer: Because the shorts overstayed their hand and SIMPLY CANNOT COVER and disappear. Based on current volume and current short position, they’d have to buy every single share traded, every single day, for FIVE MONTHS in order to get to zero. Unless there’s an offsetting seller of 4 million shares willing to sell at these prices, then price can only rise as the demand would exceed supply at these levels. This is like asking the shorts to hit themselves over the head with a hammer. Instead, they continue to manipulate the price (they’ve ADDED to their short over the last thirty days to try and hold price down) but are now starting to lose that battle. There is obviously a large buyer sitting underneath the market right now accumulating on a daily basis. This makes for a very combustible situation on good news and the shorts are playing with fire. However, it’s the only game they actually can play. When they get lit up, it won’t be for a little, it’ll be for a lot. Look at Tesla (TSLA). Those shorts had built a 30 million share short position around $30/share as of March of this year thinking the whole thing would collapse into bankruptcy. Now it’s trading at $171 and the shorts have only covered 10 mill of that short! That’s a $140 point loss for those that are still short 20 million shares. Do the math, that’s a $280 million loss for the shorts and they still haven’t capitulated! So you’d have to ask yourself why there are still 20 million shares short on TSLA after a $280 million loss. Hopefully we’re are just about at the point where a BIG HURT is going to be put on the #$%$ who have been manipulating our little breakthrough technology company. If the Red Sox can go from Worst to First in a year, so can MBLX! The K Trade Show in Germany starts this Wednesday. News should start to flow soon.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The following things really peaked my interest when I looked at this company and its enormous portfolio of patents:
Point 1) Metabolix’s Mirel bio plastic can biodegrade in either soil or ocean water. I consider this to be an extremely significant game changing feature as it means that their product is ideal for use in places where disposal of plastics is an issue. That includes most waterfront properties, islands, cruise ships, naval vessels, steam liners, cargo ships, etc. etc.
Q 1) Why isn’t the use of Mirel being demanded for all plastics used near and around every ocean front property or island in this world?
Point 2) Rubbermaid and others have confirmed that Mirel works well for injection molded plastic products; going so far as to describe Mirel as the best choice for their sustainable plastics line.
Q 2) Why hasn’t Rubbermaid used Mirel for more than just a small line of biodegradable ballpoint pens? We’re talking about a huge company here and the potential for an extremely large partnership must exist!
Point 3) The US Government has given FDA approval for Mirel to be used in food contact applications. This is a huge plus for Mirel as it takes time to get this type of certification for any type of new material.
Q 3) Why isn’t every single food container shipped to US islands (like the Hawaiian Islands) manufactured using Mirel? It seems to me that plastic disposal on an island is a very important issue and the leaders in Hawaii would want Mirel used for all plastic plates, utensils, cups, microwave food container and much much more!
Point 4) Metabolix has a patent portfolio with approximately 700 issued or pending patents. There are a lot of other companies either making bio degradable plastics or trying to make bio degradable plastics.
Q 4) Why aren’t more companies paying Metabolix licensing fees for use of some of their patents? With that many patents someone must be walking on your toes?
Point 5) Metabolix is clearly one of the best bio degradable plastics on the planet and deserves its place in the food chain as the plastic of choice for anything plastic that may be eventually thrown away or accidently left behind on a beach, in a forest, near a stream or anywhere else where plastic might be left behind in the environment.
Q 5) Why aren’t the top three manufactures of plastics lining up in a bidding war to take you over? You stock is trading below cash. It is being valued as if all your research is worthless. It is being valued as if your patents are worthless. It is being valued as if your certifications for food contact are worthless. It is being valued as if Rubbermaid’s testing to prove viability in an injection molding process are worthless.
Point 6) Metabolix has more to offer than just bio plastics; you also have a whole line of bio chemicals that you are working on. According to several positive conference calls you’ve made great process with both the production and testing of several bio chemical products. These are targeted for multibillion dollar markets, yet your company is valued as if all this research is worthless.
Q 6) Why haven’t you announced a partner to begin immediate manufacturing, marketing and sales of your bio chemical products?
Point 7) Archer Daniels Midland and Metabolix built a very large plant in Clinton Iowa but the creation of this plant took more time than expected, cost far more than expected and was probably limited by governmental regulations, the high cost of domestic labor, the high cost of locally produced raw materials and much more. Ultimately ADM decided to bail on this operation for a wide variety of reasons; including the inability to see near term profits due to the need to pay down over $430 Million in debt generated while building the Clinton facility. During the breakup process ADM assumed the $430 Million in debt and returned to Metabolix the rights for all licenses, patents, etc. plus sold (at a very reasonable price) Metabolix a large reserve of product. I understand that this facility was built using what would now be considered out-of-date technology and that Metabolix has developed faster more efficient processes for manufacturing Mirel.
Q 7) Why aren’t you teaming up with one of the big three US manufacturers to mass produce Mirel at a cost competitive price to target the huge need for bio degradable products here in the US?
Point 8) ADM isn’t the first big player to walk away from bio plastics; several years ago DOW Chemical walked away from NatureWorks . The interesting thing about today’s environment is that DOW Chemical is finally getting back into bio plastics; going so far as to announce plans for building a multibillion dollar facility in Brazil. From the DOW 2011 Annual Report: “Dow and Mitsui & Co., Ltd. announce the formation of a joint venture aimed at providing innovative and sustainable product solutions to the global high-performance flexible packaging and hygiene and medical end-markets. When complete, the joint venture will be the world’s largest integrated facility for the production of biopolymers made from renewable, sugarcane-derived ethanol and will represent Dow’s largest investment in Brazil.”
Q 8) Have you been in discussions with DOW Chemicals about integrating your bio plastics technology with their facilities for making a high end line of bio degradable products? If not then why not?
Point 9) DOW Chemicals isn’t just going after a bio plastics market they are also a big investor in all types chemicals. The following is also from the DOW 2011 Annual Report: “Dow and Saudi Aramco joint venture Sadara will address rapid demand growth across a variety of end-markets, particularly those related to growing middle classes in developing regions. The Boards of Directors of both companies approved the building and operation of a world-scale, fully integrated chemical complex in Jubail Industrial City, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.”
Q 9) Have you been in discussions with DOW Chemicals about intergrating your bio chemicals technology with their facilities for making a high end line of sustainable chemicals? If not then why not?
Point 10) Metabolix now trades at market cap of approximately $50 Million. This appears to be below cash and excludes the value of your product reserves, you nearly 700 patents, your bio plastics technology, your bio chemicals technology and other research.
Q 10) Why aren’t companies lining up to buy your company, take your cash, sell your patents and make shareholders an offer they can’t refuse?
Point 11) It seems like a company like DOW Chemicals could easily make an offer for 2x, 3x or even 4x your current market cap and still come way out ahead. If they made you the right offer you would have to take it to shareholders for a vote.
Q 11) How big would an offer have to be before you had to tell shareholders about it? Your stock is trading as if your company is going out of business; why aren’t the big boys fishing in your pond?
We are currently looking at costs to integrate, verify, test and study before we know if we have a partner. Then we are looking at a more expenses and time to get things rolling. The market is showing a lack of confidence in this plan as shown in the recent sell off. Once things do get rolling there will probably be a need to secure more funds and dilute existing investors; another reason to stay away from the stock. The future could be very bright yet apparently the market does not see that.
When I read about acres of plastic floating in oceans around the world and think about the potential for Mirel to dissolve safely and quickly within that environment it saddens me that Mirel isn’t the product of choice for anything plastic that could wash into our steams and eventually end up in our oceans. Your company has an amazing product and it appears to have all the required testing, certifications and approvals for use in a large variety of products. I realize that customers want a cost competitive product that meet or beat their standards and that selection takes a very long time due to the fact that many want to run in house test, BUT if you teamed up with someone big and they confirmed for customers that Mirel works well for their applications and provided a list of places it will and won’t work then that time would be significantly cut.
I don’t believe that Mirel will become a household name (like it should) unless someone big gets behind it. The management team at Metabolix seems to be thinking small and I think that is a mistake.
I am still surprised that this stock has held up so well since their PennyOmega advertising campaign last April by Crown Equity Holdings.
Metabolix director just picked up 100,000 shares
Matthew Strobeck, a director of Metabolix, recently acquired 100,000 shares of the company. The buys took place at prices ranging from $0.79 to $1.06 per share, on dates ranging from November 27 to November 29, 2013. Strobeck now owns 835,614 shares of the company.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Here's to $2.00 and Beyond... May it happen much sooner than you expect '-)
Strobecks buys aren't what pumped up the stock last year and they haven't in the past; they simply tell long term investors that this stock is still worth holding and that now is a good time to dollar cost average. Unfortunately, most of the real long term investors have been there and done that so many times that few are 'ready' to add another dime here. The jolt that we saw last November wasn't because Strobeck made a similar purchase; it happened because many employees made a similar purchase. Of course, we know how that worked out for them; Antibioticos surprised many by discontinuing salaries and shutter much of their plant (it wasn't pretty).
I'm a believer in their patents and their intellectual property so I'm here for the long term. I highly suspect that if management decided to give up they could sell their IP for at least $2 per share... Until then they are going to keep trying to make this work. In the ideal case they would find a big American partner to produce product for the 3D space or to manufacture specialized PVC for the construction market. Both of those product lines have the potential to turn this back into a ten dollar stock and beyond... Personally I wish we could count on government to force manufacturers to deliver at least 25% of their products in biodegradable sustainable plastics. It would be nice to know that the sea of plastic floating in our oceans is an issue worth solving; Metabolix clearly has the solution for preventing it growth but no one is ready to support their solution.
I truly like the idea of going after the 3D market and partnering with one of the leaders.
Please make it so.....
I'm not fond of the Walmart talk. While I hope such clients are in MBLX's future, there seems to be little to back this speculation.
What I do see are many fundamental great things as well as a time pressure to deliver on them soon. That, in combination with some suicidal short positions, makes for a compelling near term.
The good news I see is as follows:
- the previous film was not doing well with new clients. From what I can tell there seems to be have been a problem of some sort with it working on new client's manufacturing equipment. In any event, by partnering with Samsung they got a few things right. 1) The new product (B5010 film) apparently works well across equipment. 2) New IP in getting PHA to work with Samsung's product. Such manufacturing IP filings will functionally extend the life of the Mirel patents (will go into this later). 3) If these new product offerings work as hoped MBLX will have Samsung as a great multinational partner who could drive a lot of business in Asia.
- Mirel has always had an issue that it could not be clear. Now with B5011 it can be clear (or at least translucent). Big deal for food packaging. Bigger deal for bags. Nice additional release with Samsung with great sales potential.
- Mirel was too pricey. MBLX however seems to be in good shape to leverage lessons learned during the failed JV with ADM, and some new tricks as well. Their CTO Oliver recently presented in Switzerland about improvements in production which will allow MBLX to be more sugar source agnostic. Hopefully this makes for greatly reduced production costs. At a minimum it should insure product cost stability they did not have previously.
- the news on PHA as an additive to PVC seems revolutionary. There are many ways I see this being a large volume product down the road. 1) It allows for much more recycling of PVC, 2) It could make PVC less toxic, and 3) it could make PVC perform better (eg UV resistance or general degradation resistance).
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Cereplast is cool:
Cereplast Expands Bioplastic Applications with Freeze-Tolerant Compostable Resin
Tuesday January 22, 9:00 am ET
HAWTHORNE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Cereplast, Inc. (OTCBB:CERP - News), manufacturer of proprietary, bio-based, sustainable plastics, extended the range of applications for biodegradable, compostable plastic with the introduction of the first-ever freeze-tolerant resin, CP-INJ-13. The newest addition to the Cereplast CompostablesTM resin family retains structural rigidity in freezing temperatures, ideal for frozen food applications, such as ice cream containers, and all applications requiring resistance to low temperature and/or high flexibility.
The new polylactic acid (PLA)-based resin exhibits superior flexibility compared to other PLA-based products, allowing it to withstand sub-zero environments. CP-INJ-13 provides structural integrity in temperatures as low as -35oC, compared to about 20oC for standard PLA-based plastic. In addition, tensile elongation is approximately 10x greater (284% for CP-INJ-13 and typically 25% or less for neat PLA as measured by ASTM D638) and the notched IZOD impact measures 2.5 lb-ft/in. at 23oC compared with 0.5 lb-ft/in. with traditional PLA-based plastic.
Cereplast is hot:
Cereplast Turns Up the Heat on Bioplastics with a New High Temperature Thermoforming Resin in its CompostablesTM Resin Family
Monday November 5, 9:00 am ET
HAWTHORNE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Cereplast, Inc. (OTCBB:CERP - News), manufacturer of proprietary bio-based sustainable plastics, announced the launch of a new high temperature resistant thermoforming resin, CP-TH-6000, in its Compostables� family. Cereplast now offers 15 different grades of resins in the Compostables TM for different converting applications. CP-TH-6000 is being marketed at price lower to conventional styrenic thermoformed resin and is commercially available as of November 1st. At a time of increasing demand for bioplastics Cereplast believes that this new resin illustrates its technological advance in the sector.
�The new resin is a breakthrough for the Cereplast Compostables� and is the result of a successful research and development project which demonstrates Cereplast's ability to answer specific requests from its customers� converters and from the plastic industry,� said Frederic Scheer, chairman and CEO of Cereplast. Although biodegradable and compostable resins have generated a lot of interest in the past few years it is clear that one of the limitations was the temperature resistance that at best reached 140OF. CP-TH-6000 has a high temperature limit of up to 155OF which clearly set it apart from its competitors.
Here is the quick summary but I suggest listening to the call on your own:
1) I liked the concise eco pitch Eno made in summary of MBLX at the beginning of the call.
2) Mirel update (and stuff from Analyst questions):
-plant still on target for Q2
-pipeline up 12% to 95M
-pricing guidance increased to $2.25 to $2.75 a pound (up $0.25 on each). More importantly there was a comment that all current contracts are signed around the midpoint of the range (first confirmation that they are able to maintain a price premium with their unique product benefits).
-2 new clients. Leading nursery plant company and unnamed F500 company.
-Description of Ball plant concept is pretty cool. Planter is bottomless. just buy and plant the planter. Beyond compostability, Mirel has advantages in printing and colors such that the container stand out for more than function. Sheet opportunity. Currently market is 320M lbs per year with almost no recycling being done in it.
-F500 client is a 3 year contract with some co-branding. Injection molding opportunity.
-Starting to address Clinton 1 expansion. It appears this will be thought out between now and production of Clinton 1.
-Cost of Clinton 1 much higher than originally forecast. Now suggesting price tag of 300M. Details to follow for next Q call as ADM is preparing detail now.
-Clinton 2 (and etc) should be thought of as multi-year projects.
-FDA dossier had not been filed as of the end of last Q. MBLX filed prenotification and written cross communication has followed. Eno sounded extremely optimistic that things are going in a way that will maximize the chances of approval. Filing date of dossier not promised on the call but some talk of preparations of samples for the dossier. Again affirmed non-food can fill Clinton 1.
-Agriculture film mulch project with Penn State seemed extremely promising. Seems like good news that the products will work with existing farm equipment and might be tailored to the needs of the crops. Great target vertical in that the film can just be plowed into field afterwards as opposed to pulled up and burned or sent to waste. Market is 3B lbs per year.
-New opportunities for Clinton plant in foam (packaging, food containers) and non-wovens (filters, masks, diapers, wipes, plasticware). Could command higher premiums in target clients.
-No real update
Other non-Mirel plant activities
-No update on switchgrass
-Little update in oilseeds other than all seems to be going as hoped with Danforth project and some hint that they have some IP filings to do and expect results of studies by mid to late next year.
-Sugar cane results look good. Results are similar to switchgrass from last Q. Both are 3 years out or further though. Still very cool.
I happen to like whole deal that Metabolix is setting up with Antioticos. Both companies are working towards setting up a manufacturing process that will work and be economically feasible. They would not be using their resources unless they already believed it to be in the best interest of both companies. Furthermore it places Metabolix in one of the world’s hot spots for biodegradable products. The European Union is switching to sustainable products much faster than most other places (including the United States). It makes sense to have a presence there so products don’t have to be shipped there from Iowa (or Brazil).
What I would like to know is: What is being done to target The Americas?
There is without a doubt a need for Mirel along thousands of miles of coast lines and you have already mentioned the great need for products like Mirel on the Hawaiian Islands. The idea of partnering with someone big like DOW Chemicals and letting them do the work to qualify Mirel for use by many of their customers makes a lot of sense. One of Metabolix's biggest problems has always been the lead time required for customers to do their own in-house testing before accepting Mirel as a viable replacement for existing plastics. A company like DOW could certainly proclaim that Mirel technology is sound and give guidelines for where it is a suitable alternative. Customers may not be ready to accept a similar statement from Metabolix but that is probably because they are unsure that Metabolix will be around a year from now. A name like DOW has already proven the test of time; hence they could certainly open a lot of doors.
This company has cash, patents and zero debt but it trades like it is worthless. Clearly management has lost the confidence of the market. It doesn’t help that the guy in charge owns less stock than the average retail investor on this board. With no skin in the game one has to question his motives; are they really in the best interest of the shareholders?
I don’t know if the board is happy with the current results but I do think that someone should be putting their membership up for a vote to see if anyone out there still has confidence in them.
For goodness sake, you are sitting on top of the best biodegradable plastic on the planet and it should be in such mass production that every single stinking plastic bag, plastic plate, plastic cup or plastic microwave food container is manufactured using your product.
IMHO, you need to partner with someone huge that can make that happen! If it means giving up some of your control then so be it. It would be better to give a little now for a big win later. If your product shows up in everything I mentioned above then that will be a very big win for everyone! That includes management, board members, general employees and shareholders! Not to mention The Planet!
Right now you are looking at markets where people will pay a premium for your product rather than looking at the big picture! The world could really use your product as part of the big picture! Using it for potted plants and a few beach toys may make you feel like you are making a dent but the real help to the plant comes when anything plastic that can fly, blow or get dumped into the ocean is built using your product. That isn’t going to happen if you build a silly little facility and don’t team with someone who can mass produce and market your product to everyone!
I have zero confidence in the current plan. I don’t see new plastics being manufactured until after a whole lot of conditions are satisfied. I don’t see chemicals being produced until long after plastics are up and going. I don’t see cash reserves sustaining the company through all of that. Way too often I’ve seen companies driven into the ground trying to do exactly what Metabolix is doing here.
When you have a great technology you need to find a great big partner that can market and mass produce it.
ADM wasn’t the right partner. You should take a look at DOW Chemical (they are ready to put a lot into this space) you should take a look at Rubbermaid, BASF and others.
The market is speaking to you right now and clearly you agree as no one on your board or your management team are making purchases at these rock bottom prices.
The daily control by shorts tells me that they have an inside person giving them tips that nothing good is coming so keep on shorting. Honestly I think it is time to look at electing board members who can get something done here. The big picture is all that’s important and Metabolix isn’t currently shooting to become a major player. To do that they need affordable prices through mass production and they need the right partner to make that happen.
Okay, I’m done blowing off steam. Please like/recommend this post if you agree
This is absolutely amazing when you step back and look at it, especially for a company trading for a price that’s equal only to its cash in the bank.
The MBLX short interest at the end of June 2012 was 4,572,469 shares.
The MBLX short interest at the end of December is 4,291,700 shares.
That means that over the last 6 months and a trip to close to $1, the short interest contracted by only 280,769 shares!
YET, the total amount of stock traded in the last 6 months is 17,427,000 (yes that’s 17 million) shares traded.
That means that the shorts covered using only 1.6% of the total amount of shares that traded.
July was 1.369 mill, Aug was 2.587 mill, Sept was 1.705 mill, Oct was 1.666 mill, Nov was 2.51 mill and Dec was 7.59 mill traded.
The price change between June 30th and Dec 31st was $1.85 down to $1.48 at year end and here we stand at $1.60 (above the 50 day moving average and just below the 200 dma).
It was very clear that the shorts fought vigorously to protect the upside breakout above the 200dma in December but they were also helped by year- end tax sellers. That won’t be the case at the next attempt.
The shorts have been active in the stock on a daily basis and they barely covered any. All they’ve been doing is trying to manage the price (most likely to trigger year-end bonuses for 2012 ‘performance’).
So, what does all this mean now as we enter 2013?
It means that a significant percentage of the shareholder base that bought much higher has turned over with an average cost to new owners of about $1.50 and those that wanted/needed to sell are now out including the Mueller Estate.
(Former Director Mueller died in June).
The shorts have been and still are practicing the illegal art of banging the close at seconds after the 4pm bell and are using trading algorithm’s to make any sizable upside trade immediately trade 100 shares back to the bid within 1/100 of a second after the trade is complete. This too is illegal. Their audit trail is unexplainable as ‘random’ when they get a visit from the regulatory bodies which could happen at any time.
Schuller still owns 14.99%. Fidelity still owns north of 10% (they are forced to file once they go below 10% and haven’t done so). State Farm still owns north of 6%. Directors and insiders own another 17%.
That means 50% of the stock is held by strong hands from before and probably another 25% of the shares are now being held by new hands that bought in the last 6 months.
That leaves 25% of the stock in ‘other’ hands who were unwilling even after all that has happened to the company to sell in 2012 at these prices.
So, 25% of 34.1 mill shares is only 8.5 mill shares. In other words, the shorts are short 50% of the stock that could trade at levels anywhere close to these..
Near-Term Shots on goal for Bulls are:
A) Deal news on specialty chemicals business as described by Eno on Q3 cc where he stated that it could be ‘cash generative’
B) The Antibioticus deal goes from Letter of Intent to Official. Announcements in December indicate that’s imminent (we are now in ‘early 2013’).
C) Commercial Sales ramp of Mirel. Italy ban of plastic bags went into effect starting Jan. 1st 2013 but allows for the biodegradable/compostable version that MBLX makes. This is what the Kenmare deal is all about.
D) Additional crop science awards
F) Schuller steps in to buy the additional 5% (1.5 mill shares) that he got permission for last February but hasn’t acted upon. Schuller did sell $18 mill worth of SRCL in December (still owns over $100 mill worth).
The maximum shot on goal from here for the shorts is a total of $6,818,720 ( 4.291 mill shares going from $1.60 to zero) that could only happen with a complete liquidation of the company without any residual value for intellectual property and business value after all cash is gone and that can’t happen at all in 2013 given the burn rate. This is a ‘possibility’ but most certainly not probable and they are at risk every day of 2013.
On the other hand, their exposure is technically infinity but let’s figure that they could cover at $6-$8 and would cost them approximately $30 mill at an average price of $7 and that could happen in the next 6 months.
Who's shoe's would you rather be in now?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Eno, the Forbes article was encouraging yet nothing would be more encouraging that a few very public sales in the niche markets that you are now targeting. I can only assume that December’s press releases were related to these markets, so the sooner you can announce a few sales the better it will appear.
In early December you announced that you are now shipping Mvera Compostable film grade resin. This seems ideal for compost and retail shopping bags; both niche markets that you are obviously targeting. How are sales going? Have you made a few big sales? If not then why not, I only ask because your press release about Mvera B5008 said “Now Shipping”?
In mid December you announced that you are now shipping a PHA-based Polymeric Modifier for PVC. This seems ideal for the construction market which appears to be taking off again. How are sales going? Have you made a few big sales? If not then why not, again I only ask because your press release about I6001 said “Now Shipping”?
I realize that mass production of either product can’t begin until Antibioticos is up to speed but I also recall that you have millions of pounds of product that you received from ADM. If you are really “now shipping” product then you must be putting some of your inventory to use; has anyone anywhere placed an order?
In December you also announced that Kenmare will help promote your compostable films in Europe "starting in 2013"... Now that we are in 2013 can you please share links to any marketing, white sheets, pdfs, anything to show how your new business partner is helping to introduce your products to the world?
BTW, congratulations on your mention in Forbers; they clearly get that you are working on a turnaround and that it takes time yet your progress is in the right direction. Of course, the best thing that can happen now is completion of phase one, completion of the appropriate studies, validation that Antibioticos was the right choice and the signing of your first new European customer… Since you are "now shipping" (at least two products) it would be nice to know where you are shipping to. Anything you can share with us will be greatly appreciated!
What is the name of the movie that most resembles MBLX management strategy? BOARD OF DIRECTORS.....Do your job. Get someone in that knows how to run a company. Todays conf call was pathetic.
The company has been "exploring" mfg options for TWO YEARS! Get someone in who knows how to do a real estate deal. Find a facility and start mfg! It's not so hard. Longs, if you agree, speak up. For now, the smartest one in the room is ilovepelosi.
While the Tea Party shutting down government has potential to tank the market (and global economy if it results in defaults 3 weeks from now). It is doubtful institutional investors will rush to cash out of a stock at around cash value that also has no trading. 1) they yield little out of the transaction 2) they clearly have been willing to hold waiting on better fundamental news if still holding, and 3) it's not like the tea party stupidity wasn't predictable. In any event, for someone who claims to be so knowledgeable to the ways of institutional investors it seems odd the only qualifications you have to explain their ways is your claimed vast stock losses on MBLX and your persistent whining on the message board.
The last time I argued with you on the price it was at $1.17 and increased immediately thereafter with only the news of minimal insider accumulation. I argue we are at the same point now. Get the investor lawsuits out of the equation and hopefully mblx can make forward looking statements with forecastible elements in them. Until that point the hope is the stock is undervalued enough that it is a takeover prospect or that there are production capability improvements/promising sales numbers from newly thinner film. Certainly MBLX remains very high risk due to the cash position. I wouldn't recommend small buyers play it but it is notable that institutionals continue to hold.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Quite frankly MBLX's only concerns right now need to be a production facility which can turn a profit and financing. The two are related. MBLX must get money that will take it comfortably through 2014 to get outside auditor's approval on being financially fit. To do that, MBLX really must know what it is going to spend on a production facility. To do that, it really needs to know what facility it is going with.
This is a lot to figure out in the next 3 weeks. Ideally they are close now as none of this is new information.
Until they know when production will be online they can't sell much of their PHA inventory. The problem is even trial runs in PHA as an additive for PVC could be huge (e.g. trial products in industrial carpet backings or construction material such as piping or decking).
In terms of pricing, obviously that is dependent on production costs and what control MBLX has of the facility. However, costs should be lower than what was expected with Clinton ADM production. At least MBLX has announced a few big improvements there in terms of production, sugar source neutrality, and other areas of potential cost savings.
In any event, IMO they need to figure out production to then establish costs to get running. From there they need to identify financing (Loans, JV, outside capital, whatever). Announcing a FY2013 call date is your first solid hint this will be accomplished.
Sentiment: Strong Buy