Very possible indeed. The cost to be a public company is ~$1m per year. This year PCTI will make $11m in EBITDA, removing the public company expenses increased EBITDA by almost +10%. Our estimates for this year equate to the stock trading at 7.5x EBITDA. With $3 per share in cash and mgmt. owning 5% of the share, it seems likely mgmt. could take it private.
Stock holder should get $9.50 -$10 per share under this scenario.
Mgt has stated that it is not worth, given the expenses involved, staying a public company with revenues less that $150 million. I would not be surprised if PCTI does some sort of LBO in the coming months.
PSMI was acquired this morning by Murata Electronics for a +60% premium.
PSMI deal done at 2.2x revenue.
PCTI currently trading at 0.9x revenue.
Seems to me there are only two issues at play.
1)Committed strong armed robbery
2)Walking down the middle of the street when officer approached
3)Took his time or did not move to sidewalk at officer's request
4)Officer attempted to get out of car when BM initiated physical contact to "stuff" the officer back in the car or officer got out of car and was attempting to put BM into patrol car, BM resisted arrest with a struggle between the two. This is issue one. In either case resisting arrest, or struggling with the officer is not wise or legal behavior .
5) Issue two, after BM, moved away from the officer then turned around, was he surrendering or did he bull rush the officer?
Other data that have read is that BM had pot in his bloodstream, so it is a strong possibility he was "high" during the whole affair and it looks like the officer incurred injuries-eye socket fracture-which would be evidence that he and BM had a struggle.
Still, for me, the main issue is whether BM was surrendering to the officer when he turned around or was moving back to the officer in anything that could be considered confrontational. Much has been made that BM was unarmed, but I suspect the officer did not know that at the time because he did not have a chance to do a thorough pat down. Chances are, if the officer was issuing instructions, he would have told BM to get down on the ground and put his hands behind his back vs walk back towards the officer
In all cases, the "protest community" has not behaved well by substituting mob violence for the legal system. They are trying to extort an outcome with a lynch mob mentality. Quite frankly. the vast majority of Americans are tired of large portions of the black community "collecting perceived injustice" when the ultimate solution is for these large portions of the black community to start taking responsibility for their actions and their culture of failure and change that culture to the good.
I bought some in the mid $22 area a week or so ago, but only a small position. Still waiting for much lower prices across the board before I am a buyer in size.
Euro-zone banks are finding it tough to rollover their Russian loans as:
1)US, UK and Japan banks don't want to be in syndicates and
2)Sanctions make Euro-zone bank participation questionable legally
Some of these loans may become non-performing hurting their already slim capital positions.
Also, China cam out with their trade data for July. Imports were down 1.6% y/y. This implies a very weak domestic economy. For example oil M was down 9% y/y and copper M was at a 15 month low. China banks also have a non-performing loan problem as does the shadow banking industry. Bottom line; Euro-zone is weakening, China is weakening, Japan is weakening and the US's 4% GDP was 1.7% inventory build-so the US is not strong.
Stocks should continue lower with the likely hood of an "event" financial or otherwise occurring on the increase.
Continuing on this theme, the WHO issued an international health warning. My interpretation. Other countries, in addition to the US, have requirements that their medical facilities report contagious disease outbreaks. This means, other countries, in addition to the US have suspected ebola cases in their ER's or other medical facilities.
Comments by Dr.s in western Africa say the disease is spreading beyond their control. Again, in the coming days, cases, in non west African locations are going to become public.
Stocks are up today because of "algo" reflexive buys due to lower interest rates. I expect rates to go lower (US, UK, Germany, Japan) as the save haven trade, but equities to go lower until travel bans are issued to/from western African countries.
Dr. Tom Frieden, director of the CDC said today that it is possible a "traveler" could have come to the US, from Western Africa, with the virus. If so, he offered an outbreak in the US would not be large. What is he saying in real terms? I suspect there are a few cases of suspected ebola in ER's or other emergency medical facilities that Dr.s are dealing with right now as they must report this sort of thing to the CDC. Hence the CDC's comments.
Bottom line, look for very negative "news" on this in coming days. Could be a "SARS" type of scare all over again. Raise cash.
When watching this movie, I always thought it was commentary on Is-lam as played by the Necromongers. Of course today ISIS is a perfect example of modern day Necromongers as the Taliban and El quida have been since their rise to power. The continuing problem is, BO is no Riddick. As far as all Helion Prime (western countries) there is no Riddick among any of the leaders.
As predicted by me, a couple years ago, there will be a WWIII the "world" vs the "necromongers" before the end of the decade.
I am sensing a Sudatenland type deal:
1)West acknowledges Russia owns Crimea (Alsace Loraine-Germany "annexed" from France 1936)
2)Eastern Ukraine "carved out" of Ukraine and given semi-autonomous status-which will be hugely influenced by Russia which is the Sudatenland equiv pre-WWII (1938)
3)Ukraine be left to itself to manage their own affairs with a pro-western tilt
This maybe enough to get a counter rally in Euro-zone and US markets for a couple weeks. Still, it is a land grab by Russia and a creeping "takeover" of Ukraine which does not want to be part of Russia.
To continue on the 1987 theme, the Dow was down 41% from peak to trough, the S&P 500 down 36%. After the lows in Oct, the averages almost retested them in early Dec. So, if the markets do sell off 15%-20% or so, with the last 5-8% in a very short period of time, I think the broader averages will retest those "trading lows" several weeks after they are made. So, if an investor doesn't get close to the "bottom" the first time, they will have a 2nd chance. This is assuming, that policy responses will be more easing from central banks.
A couple of other points w/r to 1987. That summer several M&A deals did not go through, for various reasons, but some of it had to do with Congressional meddling with the tax code. News, in recent days, has a few deals blowing up and threats of Congressional and or presidential meddling in tax inversions deals. When "arbs" lose alot of money on these deals that don't go through, they are highly leveraged and tend to have to sell other positions to raise liquidity to cover their loses. Unlike 1987, when interest rates were going up all year, interest rates are falling with the "active" central banks around the world. Because of the interest rate differential, I expect stocks to pull back 1/2 the amount they sold off, as a %, in 2014 vs 1987. Ultmately, 15-22%.
Waiting for NG to get closer to $3.50, ECA under $20 and did buy some UPL in the mid $22 area-but just a small position. Otherwise, same #$%$, different day-waiting for stocks to sell off further.
Back in 1987 stocks grind lower from Aug through early Oct before the big sell off. Looking for similar pattern this year.
I was wondering what your thoughts are on nat gas? ECA and UPL have pulled back off there recent highs. Any idea on when we should get back in? As always thanks for your opinions.
With the RUT, DAX and CAC all down about 9% intra-day vs their recent highs. S&P 500 and Dow down less than 5%. I still think there is more to go, perhaps 2X more than what has happened so far. Europe, still has not come to grips with the:
1)Fiscal problems of most of the Euro-zone countries
2)Bank equity deficiencies
3)All the while Euro-zone sovereign bonds are way over-valued
4)Negative loan growth
I can "see" a negative self reinforcing negative loop of sovereign bonds selling off, leads to losses within bank portfolios, leads to selling of more sovereign bonds and so on until the ECB has to step in step in with QE.
If I am correct, while the above is going on, stocks will fall hard as Euro-zone and US GDP estimates will have to come down and so will S&P 500 earnings estimates. Until that happens, I'm expecting a "valley of doubt" over the next few months to keep counter rallies short.
What to look for? Watch Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece 10 yr bonds. If they continue to sell off, like they did today, then those falling bond prices will lead to a self reinforced further selling. Those bonds all have to increase 50-100 BPSs off their recent all-time lows before the ECB will be forced to act.
Mgt did a good job on gross margins and OpX. Still, revenues down y/y and mid-point of guidance revenue will be down y/y. If folks want to bid up a "flat" business, that is OK by me. However, when one looks at hospital admissions, as an indicator of demand, hospital mgt companies are still showing declines. For example, CYH reported admissions down 4.8% y/y per hospital.