MIFI, seems to be out of the woods as mgt has guided to EBIT positive each Q and getting higher as the year progresses. Once deal is complete, cash will be approx $24 million to either:
2)Buy back bonds at a discount
Sales/share should get up to 4.25, so PSR of .5 gets the stock over $2.00. .5 PSR is still cheap, 1 PSR is doable with sustained sales growth.
... even though the "Serial Acquirer" was in the midst of his latest -and probably last- lemon purchase! :)
Let's face it. It takes tons of time to fire 10 or 20 people while making up a story for the street that hides how their already dim future is thrown under the bus...
The ship is sinking. 1 or 2 more years tops
Thanks. Management issued guidance of $1.25-1.45 for 2016 versus the consensus of $1.26 on yahoo. This represents a 29-49% increase from 2015 GAAP. Selling at 9.2X the old consensus, it seems undervalued. The RSI of 26 is attractive too.
BB, it may be premature to thank you for the SCSS mention but you drew my attention to it. I spent the weekend researching and bought some this morning at $15.43, well off its highs. It botched an IT conversion to new business management software, costing it significant sales last quarter. Customers are ticked and the company is working hard to sooth the hard feelings. The earnings CC indicates performance is improving with near full recovery in H2. I may be early with the buy but have done well with such things in the past. SCSS is well-respected in JD Powers customer surveys so I'm guessing they will withstand this "temporary" glitch.
Yahoo, probably in order to same memory space only retains 2 pages of posts-hence one of my themes has dropped off.
I had posted some time ago that the US's moral and social decline started in the 1960s. One specific turning point was at the Democratic National Convention (1968) in Chicago were vandalism and other such crimes-many violent-were passed off (political correctness) as legitimate protest.
Another theme, which has been tearing the country apart, has been race based decisions/observations/accommodations etc-where race should not be a factor at all. Everybody has equal opportunity-it all depends on how you spend your 24 hours/day 7 days/week-everybody should be equally responsible for their actions and quit blaming others either in real time or history going back decades for one's own individual lack of accomplishment.
The catalyst there was the Bakke Supreme Court case of 1978-where racism was legalized (affirmative action) by way of the Civil Rights Acts (1964) and the "equal protection" clause of the 14th Amendment. Since then "race" has been involved in our society to such a large extent that the individual doesn't matter anymore. So, until affirmative action is found to be un-constitutional because it is inherently racist and all those that believe in affirmative action are the biggest racists of all-the US will continue to tear itself apart over race.
The fact of the matter is, all society through its laws can to is seek to provide equal opportunity-equal outcomes can never be the goal or attained. Blacks as a group are not as successful as other groups because of:
2)A high % will never "catch up' because of their involvement in the criminal justice system
3)A high % just don't bring enough skills to the job market
All correctable on an individual basis, but hiding behind the racist mantra of affirmative action and other false notions of discrimination will continue the US's "dark age" self destruction.
PBOC intervenes to increase the value of the Yuan-lowering deflationary pressures to the world-industrial metals up. ECB's Draghi, says they won't buy NPL's (non-performing loans from Euro-zone banks) but will allow them to be used as collateral in REPOs-Euro-zone banks up big on Monday 2/15. Euro falls against the $
Japan's GDP at -1.4%, very soft vs expectations of -.8%, so Yen sells off-more fiscal and monetary stimulus expected.
Net/net on Monday, 2/15, while US markets closed, the three other major central banks made moves to:
1)Weaken or strengthen their currency depending on their situation to calm markets
3)Protect domestic banks
Still, ultimately it is the FED that will have to add massive liquidity for months before equity and high yield markets can arrest their decline and move higher.
It has been my view that the FED has been tightening since 7-8/14 as evidenced by the rise in the DXY, falling commodity prices and contracting monetary base- which shows the FED has not been supplying enough $s the world needs to service debt and grow GDP.
In that tightening process, because of $ strength and falling commodity prices, the US has been importing deflation, for over a year, in the neighborhood of 3% x-fuel. Because prices are falling (deflation) at a 3% annual rate, the real FF rate was 3-3.25% before the FED raised rates and is now 3.25-3.50% after the rate increase-inverting the yield curve as the 10yr has been much lower than 3.25% during this time period-this is why the US mfging sector has been slowing down since 1/15 and getting much worse since last summer.
What the FED needs to do is increase the supply of $s, as evidenced by falling DXY, increasing commodity prices, FED balance sheet, loans, and M2 such that import prices go positive 2-3%. This, if the FED figures it out, is a process that will take months of added liquidity as it will take time for DXY declines and commodity price increases to turn import prices up 2-3% vs down 3%. The FED can raise rates during this time as long as import prices are moving higher. However, the damage the FED has done, the last 18-20 months, will take months, perhaps more than a year to reverse.
If the FED doesn't get it, then S&P 500 sales and earnings estimates will continue fall putting downward pressure on stocks, both from a E and P/E point of view. Only until the US prints a few, at least 2 soft BLS jobs numbers will the FED be forced to capitulate and "figure it out" by massive easing.
Once the FED turns, they will have to ease for months-perhaps for more than a year. At this time stocks could go up 50% from what ever the low is as all the major central banks will be easing-world GDP will expand as will S&P 500 E and P/Es before inflation becomes the problem.
Although not recently, I have put forth the idea that couples before they "decide" to have a baby, get a license first. The logic being, in most communities you have to get a license to own and dog or cat-obviously the responsibilities of raising a child are thousands of times greater than pet ownership.
The licensing process there would have several tests:
3)Family structure test
Of course, when I have raised this idea, most folks think I'm nuts and it will never happen. Yet, with the Zika virus, countries around the world are advising their female populations to not conceive for months-in El Salvador's case for 2 years until viable solutions to the Zika virus can be found. It has been recently found that the Zika virus stays in men's sperm for months after symptoms of the disease are gone. I don't think the maximum time has been found.
However, with governments advising their populations not to breed, isn't that-through the back door-initiating my policy suggestion at least with regards to test "4"?
In the recent past, I gave it about 20 years for my view to become the norm. With the Zika virus and other accelerating government intrusions into the personal lives of its subject populations- my view is already in part being adopted. As single payor (socialized medicine) become more widely adopted, governments will push further into regulating the behavior of its populations-mostly to reduce health costs.
The other part of that view, is if a woman did get pregnant, without a license, she would be forced to get an abortion. A second offense would lead to sterilization. Men equally as reckless would be sterilized after the 2nd offense.
Those that oppose abortion, will ultimately lose the debate as abortion is needed to rid the world of "gork" babies cause by Zika, any number of other diseases, and eventually conception without license. It will simply be in the public interest.
Yes, bed sales and dental visits are good leading economic indicators for consumer spending. SCSS and TPX both missed and/or guided softly. XRAY, which is being bought out-I'm going by memory-sales were down y/y-not a good sign for dental activity.
With the sell off in stocks, going on some months now net/net, I would expect wealth affect induced spending to slow down. It will be very interesting how auto sales will come in for Feb and March.
PCTI has been a real champ in recent weeks-RSI should be over 70 and the stock is still cheap.
Along the gold/silver theme. TAHO has not done well with gold up $150 off its Dec low. Because, they didn't and because I did sell alot of "trading shares" of other gold companies, I'm adding "core" shares of TAHO confident that mgt knows what it is doing with the buyout and that the dividend is secure.
You are welcome! I enjoy the process of "getting an insight" to buy on the cheap, before the consensus momentum players pile in.
Just started reading your posts, thank you for the education
and time you have given on research. Writing your posts helps
again thank you!
RR car loadings of oil were down 17% y/y-which implies oil production is down 17% y/y for those oil basins that are served by RR.
As far as how to play higher oil, just about any oil stock would do as long as you "know" they go bankrupt first. I did buy some WPX yesterday at $4.55 given the news earlier in the day, but I am way behind on researching being confident on 7-8 companies to buy and at what price.
Of course, there is plenty of research to choose from. I do know of the small caps I follow, PDCE and BBG have well hedged books for 2016.
As always, my main "key" is what the FED does, so I sort of "handcuff' myself to buy/sell until Friday-after the FED has released weekly data after Thursday's close.
Yellen, was net/net more dovish today with expressing concerns for:
3)Financial conditions less supportive to GDP growth
4)More room for labor markets to improve
5)Strong $ hurting net exports
"4" is the "key" in my view as the FED seems obsessed with labor data. Various research on "daily withholding tax receipts" suggest the FEB jobs report will be soft. With that in mind, it is my current plan to add "trading shares" of gold/silver companies before that report-hopefully gold backs up, beforehand, to the $1130 area-200 day moving average and a 50% retracement of recent run from $1045 low-to get the best prices.
Not yet. In today's data oil imports were down to 7.1 mbpd, but noted was the 4 week average of 7.7 mbpd which was up 5% from last year. Again, it seems very odd that oil imports would be up y/y when we are swimming in oil inventories. Later today I will get RR car loadings for oil. A possible explanation is that refiners "see" lack of supply-perhaps because of much lower US production-so want to have enough oil for the "summer" driving season. Yet, with so much oil in inventory there would seem to be more than enough. It that is the case imports should be much lower in the 4-5 mbpd range.