February 2016 Florida. Four people confirmed SICK. Multiple violations by Health Inspectors.
Is Steve Ells still CEO?
Just when we thought it was contained and all over.
According to the report, the problem seems to be these customers that got sick did not go to the doctor, is that right?
some short make some bad news about chipotle, that people must don't know PCR, at all, PCR is the technical of biology, the ecoli which make people sick is a mutation of normal ecoli, if you say somebody contaminate, you have to prove your ecoli is the bad ecoli not normal one through the PCR and sequencing, that is really data, not story at all. please google PCR first before you make store.
Google dirty dining Wptv. You'll see the Chipotle story, multiple infractions at multiple Jupiter and Boca Raton stores, not a good story for Chipotle, but did mention upcoming meeting that will close all stores. Right there in this video is a video from Chipotles own website of a guy handling and chopping cilantro with his bare hands.
I see that a TV station in West Palm reported that there was a store on Glades Road in Boca that had multiple violations over several months, including stained cutting boards that were not removed. The TV report mentioned 4 stores. It also said there was a long line of people waiting to order. I think the news story was from December. It would be interesting to know if they are still busy now.
I read reports and call stock analysts, and many times they answer. I had one person tell me they reviewed the situation thoroughly and they feel that eventually the company will get back to sales and profit margins they once had. She a said that they value the stock not on the next few quarters but on next year. I asked if she has actually physically seen how bad the store traffic is, how empty the stores are, in the last two months, and she said 'no". I mentioned to her that there is probably one within a two mile radius and maybe she should see first hand how bad it is. She said" it probably won't change her opinion, as they have to have a certain number of " underperform" stocks, and they have reached their limit.
Makes me feel like these analysts have their finger on the pulse of this situation. What a joke. The whole system is rigged if you follow what any analysts say. They are basically pencil pushing,lazy non informed butt lickers that believe what they are told by company marketing hit men.
This stock is going to continue to drip, plain and simple.
If true the CDC will have a responsibility to order the entire chain nationwide to be shut down, to protect the public, until the sources of the outbreak is determined and its elimination confirmed. Otherwise people will needlessly die.
This is not hard to call. If stores are empty in Vegas, in Seattle, in Baltimore, then they are empty everywhere. If this company isn't smart enough to fix their own website showing people handling food with their bare hands, then they will likely botch their big ad campaign. Billboards with links to an online survey for a free burrito will only go so far. This company spent a lot of money on full page ads in major newspapers apologizing for the store closures. I spent 30 years in the newspaper business, papers are not read by anyone under 50 years old. Their core customer is a millennial that has never subscribed to a newspaper and therefore never saw the ads. This is not a technical issue, it's a fundamental issue. The stock will go down, to at least 338 per share. It's not if, but when, which I know matters to you.
If this is true, the stock will go down 50 points next week, easy. Any idea which store and whether bit has been reported anywhere, even in a local paper, website or radio station? Any names attached as to who got sick or whether local health officials were warned, as is required by Florida law?
I totally agree with you. This will be easy to see if the promotional advertising does what is expected. Its not enough to drive traffic only on a promotional offer. This company has to win back the 40% of the regular diners that say they are staying away. We'll know if that happens when the lines get longer on a random Tuesday or Weds when the buy one get one free offers are expired. The next two quarters, minimum will be brutal and they may actually report a loss. We are more than 1/3 done with Q1 and sales revenue is down more than 35%. With tremendous results to thee ad campaign, the quarterly revenue will still come in at -20 by their own admission. This stock HAS to go down once the analysts do their job and actually see how bad it is at the store level.
@cedarbug57 - If you had a crystal ball, what's your time horizon on this short? In other words, when does it start to make its descent? Looking at the 30 min chart it, despite closing strong, it actually looks like its showing some weakness with lower lows and lower highs. Very hard to make a call here.
So far it is supposedly contained to a handful of people but we all know how that can change. since the company is never forthcoming on such issues it may be a while before this news is mainstream.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Good post and thanks for your market research. The #1 reason I have done well with shorting is patience.
If you are short, you are on the right side of this trade. Be patient, this is headed much, much lower.
I added more today. My short position at $460 is now 18 times LARGER than it was when this was $725.
At $725 many months ago, it was a FAT stock.
At $460, the stock has problems.
Rarely do you get the chance to short a " STILL GROSSLY overvalued stock " , where you can see the problems up close.
Bear Sterns and Lehman,, which I shorted for huge profits, was NOT Transparent at all. Part of that short trade was hoping you got it right .
There is no risk to the short trade with CMG, as I see it.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure all that 2-for-1 coupon BS that's about to start will allow the company to book the revenue as if 2 burritos were actually sold, but in reality cash was only collected for one. So, while the CFO and other guilty parties do the old reverse psychology thing and say "we're expecting break-even" in Q1 2016 and then there ends up being an earnings surprise that they "beat" estimates, well let's just chalk it up to Tom-Foolery.
So, while revenue will go up, be sure to check that cash-flow statement and watch how the "cash flow from operating activities" won't be anywhere near to the reported revenues. I knew the C-Suite was going to artificially lower guidance so that the street and its jesters could say "yay, they beat estimates". Such BS. And don't get me started on Cramer. He's fun to watch, but it is so obvious that he is a paid pumper. For once, I'd like to hear someone in the press be critical about what's going on here...accounting tricks, stock buybacks, and a reality check on the fact that a Federal subpoena should NOT be taken lightly.