It will head back up, but not to 650 just yet. It will take a month or two. I love how they sandbagged the forecast. They know that the most likely drop for 2015 is the high single digits to low teens. But they said low to mid single digits. It's funny.
It's like saying a student had been getting As in the first three years of college. But the the student is starting to get burned out. So expect a D average in the final year of college.
I'm in the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton metro area, 350,000 population...no store here yet. Lots of other markets w/o a store.
Ukiah california population 15000 according to the census its a tiny little town.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Cramer usually pick it a week or two in advance without tell you. When he announce to the whole world that it is his pick, he is already a head of the game and you help him made more of what he already own. He would be dumping without you knowing it. Unless he call you up in advance before he told the whole world, it is useless information.
you're too early, they are selling this one, should bottom by Thursday for a trade however.
Too bad for you that you missed the last many years of 40% profit growth and the educations, homes and yachts paid for, thank you CMG. You'll see G-d before you see CMG at $300. So smart #$%$, how many deep in the money naked calls have you sold? I thought so pantywaist.
Me thinks over the next year or so you could seeCMG retrace back well below 500 if the next few quarters show a sequential slowing in sales growth and profits.....
With market beating results this has no business to be on 607! Fantastic buying opportunity in my humble opinion. Just purchased $ 7500 dollars worth of CMG. the burrito looks real yummy at this price ;)
I GET GREEDY WHEN PEOPLE GET FEARFUL!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You are 100% correct. That was my target based on the rational PE versus the insane momentum valuation traders were giving it. I didn't chage it in the 600's thankfully. Instead I wrote short PUTS with strikes from 540 down to 480 with premiums of around 50 each putting my cost if I was PUT the stock around that 450 level.
The stock was insane trading at these valuations and even though CMG traded high in the past this was by far the highest ever. It had to come down and we'll see multiples compress painfully for the longs.
If comp's are 5% next year plus 10% store growth you get 15%. Add small premium and you get a PE of 20 to 25 so fair value is really 400 to 500 which is why I pegged the midpoint at 450 for my PUTS. I think this stock trades into the 400's just not sure if the low or high range of it. Another 100 plus points of pain for the longs coming.
"Whoever?" The truth is according to the latest figures...margin interest has increased even during the recent market downturn. In other words, most (by some accounts as high as 70% of high beta stocks) are bought using margin. Truly scary numbers to say the least.
You might get your wish tomorrow after all, doesn't seem like any one is interested at this level and once margin calls come into play...well you get the picture, right?
Whoever uses margin to buy a stock like this into and around earnings deserves the beating they get.
That's not gonna happen. It might be best for longs if it just falls tomorrow and fills the gap. Let's get it over with!