Looks like FCS guided lower in their forecast putting pressure on ONNN? wonder why it cannot get out of its own trading range? losing patience...sluggish puppy...any thoughts?
Earnings should come in. Look at SMCI and INTC and even MU. This whole category is on the rise. MU looks like it is also getting ready to move back up as well. AAPL is grinding but still moving back up. Tech is going to be fine imo. The opportunity with an activist shareholder and rissing demand looks pretty good to me. Target 13 short term.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I keep thinking you are correct, but whenever it has a decent run up, we get 3 days of reversals and back in the 9s. even with all the recent upgrades, just refuses to move.I'll give them till earnings, then i'm gone if the stock doesn't start to move a little better.
Well...sometimes what you wish for comes true..even if it is not good if you are long...it broke 10 on the downside...option expiration on friday...game is on...rogue market makers will clean out the open interest in their favor...s&p support is now in the 1992-1972 range...yesterday's market reversal is definitely short term negative...near term exhaustion from the bulls and the supercycle both in commodities and oil appears to be over...
"does the stock show accumulation or distribution? "
The 50 day m/a indicator show a 1.6. The indicator is a 50-day ratio that is derived by dividing total volume on up days by the total volume on down days. A ratio greater than 1.0 implies positive demand for a stock.
The "ideal" flat base does have certain characteristics:
1) 5 or 6 weeks in length
2) correct no more than 10% to 15%, bottom to top
If my calculations are correct, I see ONNN entering its basing pattern for the 6th week.
We must remember that even though all of the pattern criteria are met, it is NOT a guarantee that the pattern will come to fruition. To my eye, things look good.
Now, ONNN needs a catalyst---something to get it to breakthrough the $10.60 resistance level, on really good volume...at least 40% above the normal 50 average...say 8.2 million?
Then, find support above say $10.50 or so AND stay there! That's the tough one; it can flirt with that area and then fall back to current levels just as easy.
Do you think ONNN can do it?
Thanks for the insight...the Oct. 15th bottom as such was an emotional sell off due to Microchip announcement.. then it made a high at 10.44 ..consolidated and then made a new high at 10.60 today but could not hold.. question is whether the drop from 10.60 to 10.08 came with high volume or was it just the high beta sell off due to a market reversal today...I still think Friday's option expiration has a lot to do with it...
unless it consolidates and forms a new base in the 10's for a nice move on the next up leg ...profit taking is a must for the big boys.. does the stock show accumulation or distribution? down days on INcreasing volume is a bad sign imo...so what is the catalyst for it to move and breakout of this trading range?
I'm terrible at forecasting stock prices; I look for similarities in a chart and try to see if there is enough justification to anticipate a reoccurrence---either up or down, of the price movement.
In a daily chart, going back a full year, there are three times, at highs around current levels, that ONNN corrected. They are April 25th, July 23rd and Sept 19th. Note that ALL were within striking distance of $10, but ONNN was unable to.
The recent basing pattern from mid December to the present, has to some extent, offered support around the $10 area. Since December 26th, the down days have been on INcreasing volume.
Consider too, the fact that ONNN has come off it's October 15th bottom [$6.76] up to current levels with only a slight consolidation after the December 5th high of $10.44---that's a lot of profit for the "big guns" to leave on the table, especially in a jittery market like this one.
I'm not forecasting another sell off; I'm just saying that when you have a profit, you are usually justified in taking it.
One thing investors can count on is history repeating itself with an almost uncanny regularity. Will ONNN follow this pattern again? We'll just have to wait and see...
I see you study and follow technical analysis. Disappointing close today after making new highs...High beta stock it certainly is... I think the volatility also has to do with option expiration this friday with a huge open interest on 10's...the rogues may even take it below 10 for the expiration...your thoughts for the short term action?
You must remember that ONNN has a "beta" of 1.6. that means that the stock usually responds 1.6 times, up or down, from the NASDAQ. Today is a classic example!
The NASDAQ is down .62% and ONNN is down...now more than 3%. ONNN doesn't follow the NASDAQ exactly, as you can see, but the beta is a very good rule-of-thumb.
It is a very volatile stock. It behooves the investor to r-e-a-l-l-y know the stock that they are buying...and be prepared for these roller-coaster rides.
ONNN has been basing since December 5th. with a high of $10.44...and a low of $9.43---about a 10% differential. The fact that ONNN is most likely going to close on its low, or close to it, is not a positive. The one positive in today's action is that it's declining on LESS than normal daily volume.
January 6th and 8th saw some brisk buying, but every investor has to remember that stocks go DOWN a lot faster than they go UP...and they stay down a lot longer too.
But will it hold and not retrace as it has always done? I am long and patient..but this puppy has not rewarded patience...what is your PO? I was hoping for a 12-13 target...any thoughts?
I agree, Getting some stock of the moment ratings. It does not hurt to have a great acquisition and an activist shareholder.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The selling of shares sold under the SEC 10b5-1 sales program must be made months in advance! This is to prevent any impropriety like "insider trading" or other non-public information for feathering the nests of those "in the know."
No one in management can wake up Monday morning and say to that face in the mirror, "I think I'm going to buy/sell $$$$$$ of ONNN today."
That is the main difference between illegal "insider trading" and legal "insider selling".
You can do a Google search for further info...BTW, I like the plain-language website at the blogs-dot-law-dot-harvard-dot-edu.